Karpaty 1-0 Obolon'-Brovar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Karpaty at 50% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Karpaty vs Obolon'-Brovar encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Karpaty host Obolon'-Brovar at Stadion Ukraina in Premier League (matchday 11). Kick-off is Saturday 26 October 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Karpaty — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Karpaty's home record over their last 5 home games: 1W 2D 2L (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from their last 5 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Obolon'-Brovar have recorded 1W 2D 7L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Obolon'-Brovar's form when playing away from home: 0W 4D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Karpaty are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Profile
Karpaty in-play tendencies (last 10 games, 4 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Obolon'-Brovar in-play tendencies (last 10 games, 4 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 70% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Karpaty 50% versus Obolon'-Brovar 30%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Karpaty 50% | Obolon'-Brovar 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Karpaty 1.41 xG and Obolon'-Brovar 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karpaty attack 0.855 / defence 1.149 | Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.633 / defence 1.407. League average goals — home 1.171 / away 1.121. Obolon'-Brovar's defence rating of 1.407 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Karpaty's projected output up. Obolon'-Brovar's attack rating of 0.633 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.81. Data: built from Karpaty's last 10 games and Obolon'-Brovar's last 40.
Result probabilities: Karpaty 50% | Draw 30% | Obolon'-Brovar 21%. Fair-value odds: Karpaty 2.01 | Draw 3.39 | Obolon'-Brovar 4.85. Karpaty hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Karpaty are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Karpaty offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.22 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Karpaty 60% (last 5 home games) | Obolon'-Brovar 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Karpaty vs Obolon'-Brovar | Competition: Premier League, matchday 11 | Venue: Stadion Ukraina • Kick-off: Saturday 26 October 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Karpaty 50% | Draw 30% | Obolon'-Brovar 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Karpaty 1.41 / Obolon'-Brovar 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Karpaty attack 0.855 / def 1.149 | Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.633 / def 1.407 | league avg home 1.171 / away 1.121 • Poisson stance: Karpaty (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Karpaty xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Obolon'-Brovar xG
43%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Karpaty vs Obolon'-Brovar FAQs
What time does Karpaty vs Obolon'-Brovar kick off?
Karpaty vs Obolon'-Brovar kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 26 October 2024 at Stadion Ukraina.
What was the final score in Karpaty vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Karpaty 1 - 0 Obolon'-Brovar.
Where is Karpaty vs Obolon'-Brovar being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ukraina.
What competition is Karpaty vs Obolon'-Brovar part of?
Karpaty vs Obolon'-Brovar is a Premier League fixture (matchday 11) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Karpaty vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our statistical model gives Karpaty a 50% chance of winning, Obolon'-Brovar a 21% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Karpaty the favourite.
Will both teams score in Karpaty vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Karpaty and Obolon'-Brovar will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Karpaty vs Obolon'-Brovar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Karpaty's attack at 0.85x the league average against Obolon'-Brovar's defence at 1.41x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Obolon'-Brovar's attack versus Karpaty's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Karpaty's last 10 games and Obolon'-Brovar's last 40 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.6%), 0-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Karpaty Win
50%
2.01
30%
3.39
21%
4.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 0
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Karpaty xG
Total xG
2.22
0.81
Obolon'-Brovar xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
4.85
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
24%
4.09
Win to Nil
22%
4.53
5%
19.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 8.8 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.2 | 12.4 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 8.8 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Karpaty vs Obolon'-Brovar Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Karpaty vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Karpaty and Obolon'-Brovar expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Karpaty and 0.81 for Obolon'-Brovar, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Karpaty vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 10 outings, Karpaty have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 3W 3D 4L record — L-W-L-D-W across the most recent five.
Obolon'-Brovar's form line: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games, 0.50 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-L.
Put side by side, Karpaty are the form team by 0.70 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Obolon'-Brovar.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Karpaty have posted 0.50 PPG from their last 4 home games (0W 2D 2L). That actually lags their 1.20 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Obolon'-Brovar have gone 0W 0D 4L from their last 4 away games — 0.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Obolon'-Brovar's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Karpaty come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Karpaty are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Obolon'-Brovar are on 0.50 scored and 2.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Obolon'-Brovar in 30%.
Defensively: Karpaty have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Karpaty
Blended
Obolon'-Brovar
Blended
Karpaty (Home) vs Obolon'-Brovar (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Karpaty
Blended
Obolon'-Brovar
Blended
❓ Karpaty vs Obolon'-Brovar Form FAQs
What form are Karpaty and Obolon'-Brovar in coming into this match?
Karpaty have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 games (1.20 PPG), while Obolon'-Brovar have gone 1W 2D 7L in their last 10 (0.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Karpaty at home or Obolon'-Brovar away?
Karpaty's home record (0.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Karpaty at home: 0.50 PPG; Obolon'-Brovar away: 0.00 PPG.
Have Karpaty or Obolon'-Brovar been keeping clean sheets recently?
Karpaty have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Obolon'-Brovar in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2024. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 22 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Karpaty have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 22 Mar 2026, when Karpaty won Karpaty 4-0 Obolon'-Brovar.
Karpaty's record when hosting Obolon'-Brovar specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Karpaty
1
Draws
0
Obolon'-Brovar
Recent Meetings
❓ Karpaty vs Obolon'-Brovar H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Karpaty and Obolon'-Brovar?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Karpaty have won 3, Obolon'-Brovar have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Karpaty and Obolon'-Brovar last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 March 2026: Karpaty 4-0 Obolon'-Brovar.
Who has won more matches between Karpaty and Obolon'-Brovar?
Karpaty have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Karpaty are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 100% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Obolon'-Brovar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Karpaty 75%, Obolon'-Brovar 0% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Karpaty) and 50% (Obolon'-Brovar).
On the defensive side: Obolon'-Brovar in 100%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Karpaty home games / Obolon'-Brovar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Karpaty vs Obolon'-Brovar Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Karpaty and Obolon'-Brovar matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Karpaty's recent matches and 0% of Obolon'-Brovar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Karpaty and Obolon'-Brovar matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Karpaty's recent games and 50% of Obolon'-Brovar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Karpaty and Obolon'-Brovar matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Karpaty's recent matches and 75% of Obolon'-Brovar's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Karpaty edge out Obolon'-Brovar 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Karpaty beat Obolon'-Brovar 1-0 at Stadion Ukraina, Regular Season - 11, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Karpaty 1.41 xG and Obolon'-Brovar 0.81 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Obolon'-Brovar landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karpaty attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.63 / defence 1.41, drawn from 10/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Karpaty 50% | Draw 30% | Obolon'-Brovar 21%, with Karpaty to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karpaty 50%, Obolon'-Brovar 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Karpaty's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Obolon'-Brovar's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 70% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Karpaty arrived the stronger side — 1.20 PPG against 0.50. That form edge translated into the three points. Karpaty (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line. Obolon'-Brovar (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.