Inhulets 0-1 Kolos Kovalivka – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Inhulets at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Inhulets vs Kolos Kovalivka encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kolos Kovalivka make the trip to Stadion NTK im. B. M. Bannikova to face Inhulets in Premier League, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Friday 14 April 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Inhulets have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Inhulets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Inhulets's home record at Stadion NTK im. B. M. Bannikova: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Kolos Kovalivka (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Kolos Kovalivka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Kolos Kovalivka have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward Inhulets. A 0.60 PPG lead over Kolos Kovalivka (1.80 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Inhulets lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Oct 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Inhulets half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Kolos Kovalivka half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 24% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Inhulets 50% versus Kolos Kovalivka 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Inhulets 50% | Kolos Kovalivka 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Inhulets 1.07 xG and Kolos Kovalivka 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Inhulets attack 0.992 / defence 1.016 | Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.731 / defence 0.895. League average goals — home 1.211 / away 1.199. Data: 36 Inhulets games / 38 Kolos Kovalivka games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Inhulets 39% | Draw 31% | Kolos Kovalivka 30%. Fair-value odds: Inhulets 2.56 | Draw 3.23 | Kolos Kovalivka 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Inhulets at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Inhulets if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.96 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Inhulets 60% | Kolos Kovalivka 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Inhulets vs Kolos Kovalivka | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadion NTK im. B. M. Bannikova • Kick-off: Friday 14 Apr 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Inhulets 39% | Draw 31% | Kolos Kovalivka 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Inhulets 1.07 / Kolos Kovalivka 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Inhulets attack 0.992 / def 1.016 | Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.731 / def 0.895 | league avg home 1.211 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: Inhulets (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Inhulets xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Kolos Kovalivka xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Inhulets vs Kolos Kovalivka kick off?
Inhulets vs Kolos Kovalivka kicked off at 12:00 on Friday 14 April 2023 at Stadion NTK im. B. M. Bannikova.
What was the final score in Inhulets vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Inhulets 0 - 1 Kolos Kovalivka.
Where is Inhulets vs Kolos Kovalivka being played?
The match is being played at Stadion NTK im. B. M. Bannikova.
What competition is Inhulets vs Kolos Kovalivka part of?
Inhulets vs Kolos Kovalivka is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Inhulets vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Our statistical model gives Inhulets a 39% chance of winning, Kolos Kovalivka a 30% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Inhulets the favourite.
Will both teams score in Inhulets vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Inhulets and Kolos Kovalivka will score (BTTS).
Will Inhulets vs Kolos Kovalivka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Inhulets and Kolos Kovalivka?
Record (2 meetings): Inhulets 0W | Draws 1 | Kolos Kovalivka 1W.
What form are Inhulets and Kolos Kovalivka in?
Inhulets (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Kolos Kovalivka (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Inhulets's attack rating (0.99) and Kolos Kovalivka's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.07 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Kolos Kovalivka's attack (0.73x) against Inhulets's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 36/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inhulets Win
39%
2.54
31%
3.23
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Inhulets xG
Total xG
1.96
0.89
Kolos Kovalivka xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.58
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
34%
2.93
Win to Nil
16%
6.19
10%
9.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.0 | 12.5 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.1 | 13.4 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Inhulets vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Inhulets and Kolos Kovalivka expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Inhulets and 0.89 for Kolos Kovalivka, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Inhulets vs Kolos Kovalivka?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Inhulets's recent record stands at 9W 8D 19L from 36 games, a 0.97 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Inhulets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kolos Kovalivka, meanwhile, have gone 13W 8D 15L across 36 games — 1.31 PPG, with L-W-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Kolos Kovalivka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.97 PPG for Inhulets against 1.31 for Kolos Kovalivka. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Inhulets have managed 6W 2D 9L from 17 games — 1.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kolos Kovalivka's away record stands at 5W 5D 7L across 17 trips, a 1.18 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Inhulets are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Kolos Kovalivka are on 0.86 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Defensively: Kolos Kovalivka in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Inhulets
Blended
Kolos Kovalivka
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Inhulets and Kolos Kovalivka in coming into this match?
Inhulets have gone 9W 8D 19L in their last 36 games (0.97 PPG), while Kolos Kovalivka have gone 13W 8D 15L in their last 36 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Inhulets at home or Kolos Kovalivka away?
Inhulets's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Inhulets at home: 1.18 PPG; Kolos Kovalivka away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Inhulets or Kolos Kovalivka been keeping clean sheets recently?
Inhulets have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Kolos Kovalivka in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 December 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Inhulets have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Kolos Kovalivka — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Inhulets
2
Draws
3
Kolos Kovalivka
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Inhulets and Kolos Kovalivka?
From 5 meetings on record, Inhulets have won 0, Kolos Kovalivka have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Inhulets and Kolos Kovalivka last play each other?
They last met on 15 December 2024, when Inhulets 0-2 Kolos Kovalivka.
Who has won more matches between Inhulets and Kolos Kovalivka?
Kolos Kovalivka have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Inhulets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Kolos Kovalivka see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Inhulets 47%, Kolos Kovalivka 24% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Inhulets) and 24% (Kolos Kovalivka).
On the defensive side: Kolos Kovalivka in 41%; Inhulets have failed to score in 29% of games; Kolos Kovalivka in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Inhulets home games / Kolos Kovalivka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Inhulets play Kolos Kovalivka?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Inhulets's recent matches and 24% of Kolos Kovalivka's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Inhulets vs Kolos Kovalivka usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Inhulets's recent games and 24% of Kolos Kovalivka's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Inhulets and Kolos Kovalivka tend to score early?
Inhulets have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Kolos Kovalivka in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Kolos Kovalivka defy the odds to beat Inhulets 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kolos Kovalivka beat Inhulets 0-1 at Stadion NTK im. B. M. Bannikova, Regular Season - 21, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Inhulets 1.07 xG and Kolos Kovalivka 0.89 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Inhulets fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inhulets attack 0.99 / defence 1.02 against Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.73 / defence 0.90, drawn from 36/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Inhulets 39% | Draw 31% | Kolos Kovalivka 30%, with Inhulets to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Kolos Kovalivka win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inhulets 50%, Kolos Kovalivka 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Inhulets's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Kolos Kovalivka's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Inhulets 0.97 PPG, Kolos Kovalivka 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kolos Kovalivka win broke the near-deadlock. Inhulets (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward. Kolos Kovalivka (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.