Inhulets 3-0 FC Mariupol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Mariupol at 39%, yet in-form Inhulets provide a compelling counter-argument — this Inhulets vs FC Mariupol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Inhulets host FC Mariupol at Stadion Zirka in Premier League, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 28 August 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Inhulets — All Games: 1W 1D 3L from 5 Premier League outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Inhulets have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Mariupol stand at 0W 1D 4L from 5 Premier League matches — 0.20 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.40. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. FC Mariupol have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On current form, Inhulets have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (0.80 vs 0.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using overall form). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
Inhulets trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games.
FC Mariupol trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Inhulets 80% and FC Mariupol 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Inhulets 60% | FC Mariupol 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Inhulets 1.21 xG and FC Mariupol 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Inhulets attack 0.851 / defence 1.429 | FC Mariupol attack 0.802 / defence 1.208. League average goals — home 1.178 / away 1.252. FC Mariupol bring a strong defensive rating of 1.208 — this is suppressing Inhulets's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Inhulets games / 5 FC Mariupol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Inhulets 28% | Draw 33% | FC Mariupol 39%. Fair-value odds: Inhulets 3.57 | Draw 3.03 | FC Mariupol 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Mariupol as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Inhulets (0.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Mariupol offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.6 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Inhulets 80% | FC Mariupol 100% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Inhulets vs FC Mariupol | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadion Zirka • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Aug 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Inhulets 28% | Draw 33% | FC Mariupol 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 57% | xG Inhulets 1.21 / FC Mariupol 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Inhulets attack 0.851 / def 1.429 | FC Mariupol attack 0.802 / def 1.208 | league avg home 1.178 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: FC Mariupol (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Inhulets xG
Expected Goals
1.43
FC Mariupol xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Inhulets vs FC Mariupol kick off?
Inhulets vs FC Mariupol kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 28 August 2021 at Stadion Zirka.
What was the final score in Inhulets vs FC Mariupol?
Inhulets 3 - 0 FC Mariupol.
Where is Inhulets vs FC Mariupol being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Zirka.
What competition is Inhulets vs FC Mariupol part of?
Inhulets vs FC Mariupol is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Inhulets vs FC Mariupol?
Our statistical model gives Inhulets a 28% chance of winning, FC Mariupol a 39% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making FC Mariupol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Inhulets vs FC Mariupol?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Inhulets and FC Mariupol will score (BTTS).
Will Inhulets vs FC Mariupol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Inhulets and FC Mariupol?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Inhulets and FC Mariupol in?
Inhulets (all comps): 1W-1D-3L in 5 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. FC Mariupol (all comps): 0W-1D-4L in 5 | 0.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.40 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Inhulets's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against FC Mariupol's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. The same calculation in reverse, FC Mariupol's attack versus Inhulets's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Mariupol Win
28%
3.51
33%
3.06
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Inhulets xG
Total xG
2.65
1.43
FC Mariupol xG
3.51
28%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
24%
4.20
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
7%
14.73
12%
8.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 10.2 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.3 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.5 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Inhulets vs FC Mariupol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Inhulets and FC Mariupol expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Inhulets and 1.43 for FC Mariupol, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Inhulets vs FC Mariupol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Inhulets's recent record stands at 1W 1D 3L from 5 games, a 0.80 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Inhulets, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Mariupol, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 4L across 5 games — 0.20 PPG, with D-L-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for FC Mariupol, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Inhulets by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Mariupol heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Inhulets are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game recently; FC Mariupol are on 1.60 scored and 2.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Inhulets have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games; FC Mariupol in 100%.
Last 5 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Inhulets
Early Season
FC Mariupol
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Inhulets and FC Mariupol in coming into this match?
Inhulets have gone 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 games (0.80 PPG), while FC Mariupol have gone 0W 1D 4L in their last 5 (0.20 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 August 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Inhulets
0
Draws
0
FC Mariupol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Inhulets and FC Mariupol?
From 1 meetings on record, Inhulets have won 1, FC Mariupol have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Inhulets and FC Mariupol last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2021, when Inhulets 3-0 FC Mariupol.
Who has won more matches between Inhulets and FC Mariupol?
Inhulets have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Inhulets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
FC Mariupol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Inhulets at 80%, FC Mariupol at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Inhulets and 80% for FC Mariupol. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Inhulets home games / FC Mariupol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Inhulets play FC Mariupol?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Inhulets's games and 100% of FC Mariupol's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Inhulets vs FC Mariupol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Inhulets's matches and 80% of FC Mariupol's.
Do Inhulets and FC Mariupol tend to score early?
Inhulets have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, FC Mariupol in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Inhulets run riot with a 3-0 hammering of FC Mariupol.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Inhulets beat FC Mariupol 3-0 at Stadion Zirka, Regular Season - 6, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Inhulets 1.21 xG and FC Mariupol 1.43 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Inhulets beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Mariupol landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inhulets attack 0.85 / defence 1.43 against FC Mariupol attack 0.80 / defence 1.21, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Inhulets 28% | Draw 33% | FC Mariupol 39%, with FC Mariupol to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Inhulets win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inhulets 60%, FC Mariupol 80%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 90%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Inhulets's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Mariupol's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Inhulets arrived the stronger side — 0.80 PPG against 0.20. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Inhulets scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line. FC Mariupol managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.