Inhulets vs Chornomorets – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Inhulets at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Inhulets vs Chornomorets fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Chornomorets make the trip to Stadion Inhulets to face Inhulets in Premier League, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Saturday 9 April 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Inhulets's overall Premier League record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Inhulets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Inhulets's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 4L across 8 games at Stadion Inhulets this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game.
Chornomorets have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Chornomorets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chornomorets away from home this season: 1W 2D 5L from 8 away games — 0.62 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.12 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.60 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Inhulets lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Inhulets — key trading statistics (17 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
Chornomorets — key trading statistics (17 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Inhulets 41% versus Chornomorets 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Inhulets 47% | Chornomorets 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Inhulets 1.23 xG and Chornomorets 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Inhulets attack 0.859 / defence 1.116 | Chornomorets attack 0.814 / defence 1.299. League average goals — home 1.104 / away 1.222. Chornomorets bring a strong defensive rating of 1.299 — this is suppressing Inhulets's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Inhulets games / 18 Chornomorets games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Inhulets 39% | Draw 28% | Chornomorets 33%. Fair-value odds: Inhulets 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Chornomorets 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Inhulets as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Inhulets if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.34 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Inhulets 38% | Chornomorets 62%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Inhulets vs Chornomorets | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadion Inhulets • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Inhulets 39% | Draw 28% | Chornomorets 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Inhulets 1.23 / Chornomorets 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Inhulets attack 0.859 / def 1.116 | Chornomorets attack 0.814 / def 1.299 | league avg home 1.104 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: Inhulets (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Inhulets xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Chornomorets xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Inhulets vs Chornomorets kick off?
Inhulets vs Chornomorets kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 9 April 2022 at Stadion Inhulets.
Where is Inhulets vs Chornomorets being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Inhulets.
What competition is Inhulets vs Chornomorets part of?
Inhulets vs Chornomorets is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Inhulets vs Chornomorets?
Our statistical model gives Inhulets a 39% chance of winning, Chornomorets a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Inhulets the favourite.
Will both teams score in Inhulets vs Chornomorets?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Inhulets and Chornomorets will score (BTTS).
Will Inhulets vs Chornomorets have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Inhulets and Chornomorets?
Record (1 meetings): Inhulets 0W | Draws 1 | Chornomorets 0W.
What form are Inhulets and Chornomorets in?
Inhulets (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Chornomorets (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Inhulets's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Chornomorets's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. Flip it around — Chornomorets's attack (0.81x) against Inhulets's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 17/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inhulets Win
39%
2.57
28%
3.57
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Inhulets xG
Total xG
2.34
1.11
Chornomorets xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
29%
3.42
Win to Nil
13%
7.79
10%
10.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 10.7 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.1 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Inhulets vs Chornomorets?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Inhulets and Chornomorets expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Inhulets and 1.11 for Chornomorets, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Inhulets vs Chornomorets?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Inhulets come into this having played 17 games, going 3W 4D 10L for 0.76 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-W. The sample for Inhulets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Chornomorets sit at 0.82 PPG from 17 outings (3W 5D 9L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Chornomorets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.76 PPG for Inhulets against 0.82 for Chornomorets. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Inhulets's home form reads 2W 2D 3L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.14 PPG return.
Away from home, Chornomorets have taken 0.71 points per game from 7 outings (1W 2D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Inhulets come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Inhulets are averaging 0.76 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Chornomorets are on 1.18 scored and 2.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chornomorets in 65%.
Last 17 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Inhulets
Blended
Chornomorets
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Inhulets and Chornomorets in coming into this match?
Inhulets have gone 3W 4D 10L in their last 17 games (0.76 PPG), while Chornomorets have gone 3W 5D 9L in their last 17 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Inhulets at home or Chornomorets away?
Inhulets's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Inhulets at home: 1.14 PPG; Chornomorets away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Inhulets have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Chornomorets — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Inhulets
2
Draws
2
Chornomorets
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Inhulets and Chornomorets?
From 5 meetings on record, Inhulets have won 1, Chornomorets have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Inhulets and Chornomorets last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2025, when Inhulets 1-0 Chornomorets.
Who has won more matches between Inhulets and Chornomorets?
Chornomorets have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Inhulets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Inhulets 29%, Chornomorets 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Inhulets) and 86% (Chornomorets). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Inhulets have failed to score in 57% of games; Chornomorets in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Inhulets home games / Chornomorets away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Inhulets play Chornomorets?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Inhulets's recent matches and 71% of Chornomorets's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Inhulets vs Chornomorets usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 29% of Inhulets's matches and 86% of Chornomorets's.
Do Inhulets and Chornomorets tend to score early?
Inhulets have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Chornomorets in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Inhulets's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Inhulets and Chornomorets finished level at 0-0 at Stadion Inhulets, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Inhulets 1.23 xG and Chornomorets 1.11 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Inhulets fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Chornomorets landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inhulets attack 0.86 / defence 1.12 against Chornomorets attack 0.81 / defence 1.30, drawn from 17/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Inhulets 39% | Draw 28% | Chornomorets 33%, with Inhulets to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inhulets 47%, Chornomorets 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Inhulets's trading profile (17 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 53% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Chornomorets's trading profile (17 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Inhulets 0.76 PPG, Chornomorets 0.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Inhulets (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Chornomorets (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.