Kryvbas KR 0-3 Veres Rivne – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Kryvbas KR (54%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Kryvbas KR face Veres Rivne.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Kryvbas KR and Veres Rivne meet at Stadion Avanhard in Premier League, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 22 February 2025 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Kryvbas KR have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kryvbas KR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Avanhard, Kryvbas KR have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game.
Veres Rivne's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Veres Rivne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Veres Rivne's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Kryvbas KR's 2.00 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Veres Rivne's 1.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Kryvbas KR have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 5 meetings, with Veres Rivne managing just 1 victories and 0 draws shared.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Aug 2024, ended 2–0 with Kryvbas KR winning.
The historical record gives Kryvbas KR a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Data
Kryvbas KR goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Veres Rivne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kryvbas KR 48% versus Veres Rivne 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kryvbas KR 46% | Veres Rivne 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kryvbas KR 1.56 xG and Veres Rivne 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kryvbas KR attack 1.121 / defence 0.907 | Veres Rivne attack 0.868 / defence 1.115. League average goals — home 1.252 / away 1.035. Data: 46 Kryvbas KR games / 47 Veres Rivne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 54% | Draw 27% | Veres Rivne 18%. Fair-value odds: Kryvbas KR 1.85 | Draw 3.70 | Veres Rivne 5.56. Kryvbas KR hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Kryvbas KR as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kryvbas KR if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Kryvbas KR 50% | Veres Rivne 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kryvbas KR vs Veres Rivne | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadion Avanhard • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Feb 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 54% | Draw 27% | Veres Rivne 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 45% | xG Kryvbas KR 1.56 / Veres Rivne 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Kryvbas KR attack 1.121 / def 0.907 | Veres Rivne attack 0.868 / def 1.115 | league avg home 1.252 / away 1.035 • Poisson stance: Kryvbas KR (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Kryvbas KR xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Veres Rivne xG
45%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kryvbas KR vs Veres Rivne kick off?
Kryvbas KR vs Veres Rivne kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 22 February 2025 at Stadion Avanhard.
What was the final score in Kryvbas KR vs Veres Rivne?
Kryvbas KR 0 - 3 Veres Rivne.
Where is Kryvbas KR vs Veres Rivne being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Avanhard.
What competition is Kryvbas KR vs Veres Rivne part of?
Kryvbas KR vs Veres Rivne is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kryvbas KR vs Veres Rivne?
Our statistical model gives Kryvbas KR a 54% chance of winning, Veres Rivne a 18% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Kryvbas KR the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kryvbas KR vs Veres Rivne?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Kryvbas KR and Veres Rivne will score (BTTS).
Will Kryvbas KR vs Veres Rivne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kryvbas KR and Veres Rivne?
Record (5 meetings): Kryvbas KR 4W | Draws 0 | Veres Rivne 1W.
What form are Kryvbas KR and Veres Rivne in?
Kryvbas KR (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Veres Rivne (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Kryvbas KR's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Veres Rivne's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. Flip it around — Veres Rivne's attack (0.87x) against Kryvbas KR's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 46/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.9%), 2-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kryvbas KR Win
54%
1.85
27%
3.65
18%
5.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Kryvbas KR xG
Total xG
2.38
0.81
Veres Rivne xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
5.41
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
21%
4.78
Win to Nil
24%
4.18
4%
25.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.5 | 11.8 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.2 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kryvbas KR vs Veres Rivne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Kryvbas KR and Veres Rivne expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Kryvbas KR and 0.81 for Veres Rivne, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Kryvbas KR vs Veres Rivne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Kryvbas KR's recent record stands at 26W 10D 10L from 46 games, a 1.91 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Kryvbas KR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Veres Rivne, meanwhile, have gone 11W 17D 18L across 46 games — 1.09 PPG, with W-D-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Veres Rivne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Kryvbas KR by 0.82 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Veres Rivne heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Kryvbas KR have managed 12W 6D 4L from 22 games — 1.91 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Veres Rivne's away record stands at 4W 7D 11L across 22 trips, a 0.86 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kryvbas KR come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kryvbas KR are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Veres Rivne are on 1.11 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Defensively: Kryvbas KR have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kryvbas KR
Blended
Veres Rivne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kryvbas KR and Veres Rivne in coming into this match?
Kryvbas KR have gone 26W 10D 10L in their last 46 games (1.91 PPG), while Veres Rivne have gone 11W 17D 18L in their last 46 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kryvbas KR at home or Veres Rivne away?
Kryvbas KR's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kryvbas KR at home: 1.91 PPG; Veres Rivne away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Kryvbas KR or Veres Rivne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kryvbas KR have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Veres Rivne in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 12 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Veres Rivne won 0-3 on 22 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kryvbas KR have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Veres Rivne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Kryvbas KR
1
Draws
2
Veres Rivne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kryvbas KR and Veres Rivne?
From 8 meetings on record, Kryvbas KR have won 5, Veres Rivne have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kryvbas KR and Veres Rivne last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2026, when Veres Rivne 1-3 Kryvbas KR.
Who has won more matches between Kryvbas KR and Veres Rivne?
Kryvbas KR have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kryvbas KR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Veres Rivne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kryvbas KR 50%, Veres Rivne 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Kryvbas KR) and 36% (Veres Rivne).
On the defensive side: Kryvbas KR keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Veres Rivne in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kryvbas KR home games / Veres Rivne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kryvbas KR play Veres Rivne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Kryvbas KR's recent matches and 46% of Veres Rivne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kryvbas KR vs Veres Rivne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Kryvbas KR's recent games and 36% of Veres Rivne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kryvbas KR and Veres Rivne tend to score early?
Kryvbas KR have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Veres Rivne in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Veres Rivne run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Kryvbas KR.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Veres Rivne beat Kryvbas KR 0-3 at Stadion Avanhard, Regular Season - 18, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kryvbas KR 1.56 xG and Veres Rivne 0.81 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Kryvbas KR fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Veres Rivne outscored their 0.81 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kryvbas KR attack 1.12 / defence 0.91 against Veres Rivne attack 0.87 / defence 1.11, drawn from 46/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kryvbas KR 54% | Draw 27% | Veres Rivne 18%, with Kryvbas KR to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Veres Rivne win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kryvbas KR 46%, Veres Rivne 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kryvbas KR's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Veres Rivne's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Kryvbas KR arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.09. Form was overturned, with Veres Rivne winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Kryvbas KR (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.59 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Veres Rivne (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.64 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.