Kryvbas KR 0-3 LNZ Cherkasy – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates LNZ Cherkasy at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kryvbas KR vs LNZ Cherkasy encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
LNZ Cherkasy make the trip to Girnyk to face Kryvbas KR in Premier League, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Form
Kryvbas KR (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Kryvbas KR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Girnyk, Kryvbas KR have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Kryvbas KR are significantly better at Girnyk than their overall form suggests.
LNZ Cherkasy have collected 2.70 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 9W 0D 1L. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for LNZ Cherkasy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
LNZ Cherkasy's form when playing away from home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
LNZ Cherkasy arrive in superior form — a 1.30 PPG advantage (2.70 vs 1.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Kryvbas KR have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins from 5 meetings, with LNZ Cherkasy managing just 0 victories and 2 draws shared.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 5 previous contests averaged 1.8 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The historical record gives Kryvbas KR a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
Kryvbas KR half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
LNZ Cherkasy half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kryvbas KR 45% versus LNZ Cherkasy 37%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Kryvbas KR 43% | LNZ Cherkasy 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kryvbas KR 1.08 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kryvbas KR attack 1.255 / defence 0.985 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.246 / defence 0.721. League average goals — home 1.189 / away 1.187. Kryvbas KR carry an above-average attack strength of 1.255 — their λ of 1.08 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. LNZ Cherkasy's defence strength of 0.721 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. LNZ Cherkasy have an above-average attack strength of 1.246 — the away xG of 1.46 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 51 Kryvbas KR games / 51 LNZ Cherkasy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 28% | Draw 26% | LNZ Cherkasy 46%. Fair-value odds: Kryvbas KR 3.57 | Draw 3.85 | LNZ Cherkasy 2.17. LNZ Cherkasy hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Kryvbas KR dominate the H2H record, yet LNZ Cherkasy are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates LNZ Cherkasy as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on LNZ Cherkasy if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Kryvbas KR 70% | LNZ Cherkasy 30%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kryvbas KR vs LNZ Cherkasy | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Girnyk • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Apr 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 28% | Draw 26% | LNZ Cherkasy 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Kryvbas KR 1.08 / LNZ Cherkasy 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Kryvbas KR attack 1.255 / def 0.985 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.246 / def 0.721 | league avg home 1.189 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: LNZ Cherkasy (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Kryvbas KR xG
Expected Goals
1.46
LNZ Cherkasy xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kryvbas KR vs LNZ Cherkasy kick off?
Kryvbas KR vs LNZ Cherkasy kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 5 April 2026 at Girnyk.
What was the final score in Kryvbas KR vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Kryvbas KR 0 - 3 LNZ Cherkasy.
Where is Kryvbas KR vs LNZ Cherkasy being played?
The match is being played at Girnyk.
What competition is Kryvbas KR vs LNZ Cherkasy part of?
Kryvbas KR vs LNZ Cherkasy is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kryvbas KR vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our statistical model gives Kryvbas KR a 28% chance of winning, LNZ Cherkasy a 46% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making LNZ Cherkasy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kryvbas KR vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Kryvbas KR and LNZ Cherkasy will score (BTTS).
Will Kryvbas KR vs LNZ Cherkasy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kryvbas KR and LNZ Cherkasy?
Record (5 meetings): Kryvbas KR 3W | Draws 2 | LNZ Cherkasy 0W.
What form are Kryvbas KR and LNZ Cherkasy in?
Kryvbas KR (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-L-W. LNZ Cherkasy (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Kryvbas KR's attack rating (1.25) and LNZ Cherkasy's defence rating (0.72), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — LNZ Cherkasy's attack (1.25x) against Kryvbas KR's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.0%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
LNZ Cherkasy Win
28%
3.58
26%
3.82
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Kryvbas KR xG
Total xG
2.53
1.46
LNZ Cherkasy xG
3.58
28%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
23%
4.29
34%
2.93
Win to Nil
7%
15.38
16%
6.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 11.6 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.5 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.7 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kryvbas KR vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Kryvbas KR and LNZ Cherkasy expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Kryvbas KR and 1.46 for LNZ Cherkasy, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Kryvbas KR vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Kryvbas KR come into this having played 51 games, going 22W 15D 14L for 1.59 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-W. The sample for Kryvbas KR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, LNZ Cherkasy sit at 1.53 PPG from 51 outings (22W 12D 17L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for LNZ Cherkasy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.59 PPG for Kryvbas KR against 1.53 for LNZ Cherkasy. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Kryvbas KR's home form reads 13W 6D 6L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.80 PPG return.
Away from home, LNZ Cherkasy have taken 1.48 points per game from 25 outings (10W 7D 8L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kryvbas KR are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; LNZ Cherkasy are on 1.08 scored and 0.96 conceded.
Defensively: LNZ Cherkasy in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kryvbas KR
Blended
LNZ Cherkasy
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kryvbas KR and LNZ Cherkasy in coming into this match?
Kryvbas KR have gone 22W 15D 14L in their last 51 games (1.59 PPG), while LNZ Cherkasy have gone 22W 12D 17L in their last 51 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kryvbas KR at home or LNZ Cherkasy away?
Kryvbas KR's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kryvbas KR at home: 1.80 PPG; LNZ Cherkasy away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Kryvbas KR or LNZ Cherkasy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kryvbas KR have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, LNZ Cherkasy in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Kryvbas KR won 0-3 on 23 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kryvbas KR have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against LNZ Cherkasy — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Kryvbas KR
2
Draws
1
LNZ Cherkasy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kryvbas KR and LNZ Cherkasy?
From 6 meetings on record, Kryvbas KR have won 3, LNZ Cherkasy have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kryvbas KR and LNZ Cherkasy last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Kryvbas KR 0-3 LNZ Cherkasy.
Who has won more matches between Kryvbas KR and LNZ Cherkasy?
Kryvbas KR have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kryvbas KR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
LNZ Cherkasy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kryvbas KR 52%, LNZ Cherkasy 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Kryvbas KR) and 32% (LNZ Cherkasy).
On the defensive side: LNZ Cherkasy in 40%; LNZ Cherkasy in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kryvbas KR home games / LNZ Cherkasy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kryvbas KR play LNZ Cherkasy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Kryvbas KR's recent matches and 44% of LNZ Cherkasy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kryvbas KR vs LNZ Cherkasy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Kryvbas KR's recent games and 32% of LNZ Cherkasy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kryvbas KR and LNZ Cherkasy tend to score early?
Kryvbas KR have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, LNZ Cherkasy in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant LNZ Cherkasy run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Kryvbas KR.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
LNZ Cherkasy beat Kryvbas KR 0-3 at Girnyk, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kryvbas KR 1.08 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 1.46 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Kryvbas KR fell 1.1 short of their projected output. LNZ Cherkasy outscored their 1.46 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kryvbas KR attack 1.25 / defence 0.98 against LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.25 / defence 0.72, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kryvbas KR 28% | Draw 26% | LNZ Cherkasy 46%, with LNZ Cherkasy to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kryvbas KR 43%, LNZ Cherkasy 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kryvbas KR's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kryvbas KR 1.59 PPG, LNZ Cherkasy 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the LNZ Cherkasy win broke the near-deadlock. Kryvbas KR (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.64 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. LNZ Cherkasy (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.