FC Mariupol vs Oleksandria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Oleksandria at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Mariupol vs Oleksandria encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Oleksandria travel to Stadion im. Volodymyra Boyka to take on FC Mariupol. The game is scheduled for Saturday 9 April 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, FC Mariupol have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC Mariupol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Mariupol at Stadion im. Volodymyra Boyka this season: 0W 0D 9L from 9 home games — 0.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.78 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Oleksandria — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Oleksandria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Oleksandria's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Oleksandria's 1.20 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of FC Mariupol's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for FC Mariupol, 1 for Oleksandria and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Sep 2021, ended 1–2 with Oleksandria winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
FC Mariupol trading profile (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Oleksandria trading profile (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Mariupol 61% versus Oleksandria 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Mariupol 72% | Oleksandria 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Mariupol 1.02 xG and Oleksandria 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Mariupol attack 0.844 / defence 1.457 | Oleksandria attack 0.761 / defence 1.091. League average goals — home 1.104 / away 1.222. Data: 18 FC Mariupol games / 18 Oleksandria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Mariupol 28% | Draw 27% | Oleksandria 45%. Fair-value odds: FC Mariupol 3.57 | Draw 3.70 | Oleksandria 2.22. Oleksandria hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Oleksandria are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Oleksandria offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: FC Mariupol 56% | Oleksandria 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Mariupol vs Oleksandria | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadion im. Volodymyra Boyka • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Mariupol 28% | Draw 27% | Oleksandria 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG FC Mariupol 1.02 / Oleksandria 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: FC Mariupol attack 0.844 / def 1.457 | Oleksandria attack 0.761 / def 1.091 | league avg home 1.104 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: Oleksandria (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
FC Mariupol xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Oleksandria xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Mariupol vs Oleksandria kick off?
FC Mariupol vs Oleksandria kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 9 April 2022 at Stadion im. Volodymyra Boyka.
Where is FC Mariupol vs Oleksandria being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Volodymyra Boyka.
What competition is FC Mariupol vs Oleksandria part of?
FC Mariupol vs Oleksandria is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win FC Mariupol vs Oleksandria?
Our statistical model gives FC Mariupol a 28% chance of winning, Oleksandria a 45% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Oleksandria the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Mariupol vs Oleksandria?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both FC Mariupol and Oleksandria will score (BTTS).
Will FC Mariupol vs Oleksandria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Mariupol and Oleksandria?
Record (1 meetings): FC Mariupol 0W | Draws 0 | Oleksandria 1W.
What form are FC Mariupol and Oleksandria in?
FC Mariupol (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Oleksandria (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC Mariupol's attack at 0.84x the league average against Oleksandria's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.02 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Oleksandria's attack versus FC Mariupol's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 0-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oleksandria Win
28%
3.56
27%
3.65
45%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
FC Mariupol xG
Total xG
2.37
1.35
Oleksandria xG
3.56
28%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.25
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
26%
3.88
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
7%
13.79
16%
6.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 12.6 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.9 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.5 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Mariupol vs Oleksandria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are FC Mariupol and Oleksandria expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for FC Mariupol and 1.35 for Oleksandria, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Mariupol vs Oleksandria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Mariupol come into this having played 18 games, going 2W 2D 14L for 0.44 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-L. The sample for FC Mariupol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Oleksandria sit at 1.44 PPG from 18 outings (7W 5D 6L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Oleksandria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Oleksandria carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of FC Mariupol — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
FC Mariupol's home form reads 0W 0D 9L across 9 games on their own ground, a 0.00 PPG return. That actually lags their 0.44 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Oleksandria have taken 1.22 points per game from 9 outings (2W 5D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Oleksandria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Mariupol are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 2.44 conceded per game recently; Oleksandria are on 1.06 scored and 0.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Mariupol have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Oleksandria in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Mariupol
Blended
Oleksandria
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Mariupol and Oleksandria in coming into this match?
FC Mariupol have gone 2W 2D 14L in their last 18 games (0.44 PPG), while Oleksandria have gone 7W 5D 6L in their last 18 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Mariupol at home or Oleksandria away?
Oleksandria's away record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Mariupol at home: 0.00 PPG; Oleksandria away: 1.22 PPG.
Have FC Mariupol or Oleksandria been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Mariupol have kept a clean sheet in 6% of their recent games, Oleksandria in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 September 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 1 Meetings
0
FC Mariupol
0
Draws
1
Oleksandria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Mariupol and Oleksandria?
From 1 meetings on record, FC Mariupol have won 0, Oleksandria have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Mariupol and Oleksandria last play each other?
They last met on 25 September 2021, when Oleksandria 2-1 FC Mariupol.
Who has won more matches between FC Mariupol and Oleksandria?
Oleksandria have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Mariupol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Oleksandria see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Mariupol 56%, Oleksandria 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 78% (FC Mariupol) and 33% (Oleksandria). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Oleksandria in 33%; FC Mariupol have failed to score in 44% of games; Oleksandria in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Mariupol home games / Oleksandria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Mariupol play Oleksandria?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of FC Mariupol's games and 56% of Oleksandria's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Mariupol vs Oleksandria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of FC Mariupol's matches and 33% of Oleksandria's.
Do FC Mariupol and Oleksandria tend to score early?
FC Mariupol have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Oleksandria in 44% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at FC Mariupol's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Mariupol and Oleksandria finished level at 0-0 at Stadion im. Volodymyra Boyka, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Mariupol 1.02 xG and Oleksandria 1.35 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FC Mariupol fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Oleksandria landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Mariupol attack 0.84 / defence 1.46 against Oleksandria attack 0.76 / defence 1.09, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Mariupol 28% | Draw 27% | Oleksandria 45%, with Oleksandria to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Mariupol 72%, Oleksandria 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Mariupol's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Oleksandria's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Oleksandria arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.44. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC Mariupol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.78 average — tighter than their form line. Oleksandria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.