FC Mariupol 0-3 Dnipro-1 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dnipro-1 at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Mariupol vs Dnipro-1 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Mariupol host Dnipro-1 at Stadion im. Volodymyra Boyka in Premier League, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 10 December 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Mariupol — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC Mariupol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Mariupol's form when playing at home: 0W 0D 8L across 8 games at Stadion im. Volodymyra Boyka this term (0.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 2.75 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dnipro-1 stand at 8W 0D 2L from 10 Premier League matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Dnipro-1, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dnipro-1 away from home this season: 4W 1D 3L from 8 away games — 1.62 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.62 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Dnipro-1 are 2.00 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, FC Mariupol have won 0, Dnipro-1 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Aug 2021, ended 1–2 with Dnipro-1 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
FC Mariupol in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Dnipro-1 in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Mariupol 65% versus Dnipro-1 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Mariupol 71% | Dnipro-1 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Mariupol 0.92 xG and Dnipro-1 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Mariupol attack 0.807 / defence 1.657 | Dnipro-1 attack 0.800 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.116 / away 1.189. Data: 17 FC Mariupol games / 17 Dnipro-1 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Mariupol 22% | Draw 25% | Dnipro-1 53%. Fair-value odds: FC Mariupol 4.55 | Draw 4.00 | Dnipro-1 1.89. Dnipro-1 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Dnipro-1 as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dnipro-1 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: FC Mariupol 62% | Dnipro-1 38%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Mariupol vs Dnipro-1 | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadion im. Volodymyra Boyka • Kick-off: Friday 10 Dec 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Mariupol 22% | Draw 25% | Dnipro-1 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 48% | xG FC Mariupol 0.92 / Dnipro-1 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: FC Mariupol attack 0.807 / def 1.657 | Dnipro-1 attack 0.800 / def 1.026 | league avg home 1.116 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: Dnipro-1 (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
FC Mariupol xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Dnipro-1 xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Mariupol vs Dnipro-1 kick off?
FC Mariupol vs Dnipro-1 kicked off at 15:00 on Friday 10 December 2021 at Stadion im. Volodymyra Boyka.
What was the final score in FC Mariupol vs Dnipro-1?
FC Mariupol 0 - 3 Dnipro-1.
Where is FC Mariupol vs Dnipro-1 being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Volodymyra Boyka.
What competition is FC Mariupol vs Dnipro-1 part of?
FC Mariupol vs Dnipro-1 is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win FC Mariupol vs Dnipro-1?
Our statistical model gives FC Mariupol a 22% chance of winning, Dnipro-1 a 53% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Dnipro-1 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Mariupol vs Dnipro-1?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both FC Mariupol and Dnipro-1 will score (BTTS).
Will FC Mariupol vs Dnipro-1 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Mariupol and Dnipro-1?
Record (1 meetings): FC Mariupol 0W | Draws 0 | Dnipro-1 1W.
What form are FC Mariupol and Dnipro-1 in?
FC Mariupol (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Dnipro-1 (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Mariupol's attack rating (0.81) and Dnipro-1's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 0.92 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dnipro-1's attack versus FC Mariupol's defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.4%), 0-2 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dnipro-1 Win
22%
4.53
25%
3.96
53%
1.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
0 – 2
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
FC Mariupol xG
Total xG
2.50
1.58
Dnipro-1 xG
4.53
22%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
1.90
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
21%
4.84
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
5%
21.91
21%
4.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 12.9 | 10.2 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.9 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 5.5 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Mariupol vs Dnipro-1?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are FC Mariupol and Dnipro-1 expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for FC Mariupol and 1.58 for Dnipro-1, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Mariupol vs Dnipro-1?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Mariupol's recent record stands at 2W 2D 13L from 17 games, a 0.47 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for FC Mariupol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dnipro-1, meanwhile, have gone 12W 1D 4L across 17 games — 2.18 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Dnipro-1 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dnipro-1 by 1.71 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Mariupol heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FC Mariupol have managed 0W 0D 8L from 8 games — 0.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 0.47 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Dnipro-1's away record stands at 4W 1D 3L across 8 trips, a 1.62 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.18 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dnipro-1's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dnipro-1 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Mariupol are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 2.41 conceded per game recently; Dnipro-1 are on 1.88 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Mariupol have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Defensively: Dnipro-1 in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Mariupol
Blended
Dnipro-1
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Mariupol and Dnipro-1 in coming into this match?
FC Mariupol have gone 2W 2D 13L in their last 17 games (0.47 PPG), while Dnipro-1 have gone 12W 1D 4L in their last 17 (2.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Mariupol at home or Dnipro-1 away?
Dnipro-1's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Mariupol at home: 0.00 PPG; Dnipro-1 away: 1.62 PPG.
Have FC Mariupol or Dnipro-1 been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Mariupol have kept a clean sheet in 6% of their recent games, Dnipro-1 in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 December 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
FC Mariupol
0
Draws
2
Dnipro-1
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Mariupol and Dnipro-1?
From 2 meetings on record, FC Mariupol have won 0, Dnipro-1 have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Mariupol and Dnipro-1 last play each other?
They last met on 10 December 2021, when FC Mariupol 0-3 Dnipro-1.
Who has won more matches between FC Mariupol and Dnipro-1?
Dnipro-1 have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Mariupol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Dnipro-1 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Mariupol 62%, Dnipro-1 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for FC Mariupol and 50% for Dnipro-1. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 12% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dnipro-1 in 38%; FC Mariupol have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Mariupol home games / Dnipro-1 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Mariupol play Dnipro-1?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of FC Mariupol's recent matches and 38% of Dnipro-1's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Mariupol vs Dnipro-1 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of FC Mariupol's matches and 50% of Dnipro-1's.
Do FC Mariupol and Dnipro-1 tend to score early?
FC Mariupol have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Dnipro-1 in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Dnipro-1 run riot with a 0-3 hammering of FC Mariupol.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dnipro-1 beat FC Mariupol 0-3 at Stadion im. Volodymyra Boyka, Regular Season - 18, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Mariupol 0.92 xG and Dnipro-1 1.58 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. FC Mariupol fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Dnipro-1 outscored their 1.58 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Mariupol attack 0.81 / defence 1.66 against Dnipro-1 attack 0.80 / defence 1.03, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Mariupol 22% | Draw 25% | Dnipro-1 53%, with Dnipro-1 to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Mariupol 71%, Dnipro-1 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Mariupol's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dnipro-1's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Dnipro-1 arrived the stronger side — 2.18 PPG against 0.47. That form edge translated into the three points. FC Mariupol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward. Dnipro-1 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.