Dynamo Kyiv 1-1 LNZ Cherkasy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dynamo Kyiv at 52% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dynamo Kyiv vs LNZ Cherkasy encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
LNZ Cherkasy travel to Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi to take on Dynamo Kyiv in Premier League (matchday 23). The game is scheduled for Monday 8 April 2024 at 14:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Dynamo Kyiv stand at 9W 1D 0L — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Dynamo Kyiv's home record over their last 10 home games: 8W 0D 2L (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
LNZ Cherkasy — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, LNZ Cherkasy have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Dynamo Kyiv have the edge — a 1.50 PPG advantage (2.80 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Dynamo Kyiv's 30% BTTS rate and LNZ Cherkasy's 30% (from Dynamo Kyiv's last 10 home games and LNZ Cherkasy's last 10 away games) are both low — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for Dynamo Kyiv, 0 for LNZ Cherkasy and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 6.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 23 Sep 2023, ended Dynamo Kyiv 4–2 LNZ Cherkasy — a Dynamo Kyiv win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 6.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Dynamo Kyiv in-play and half-time data (last 24 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
LNZ Cherkasy in-play and half-time data (last 24 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 36% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dynamo Kyiv 54% versus LNZ Cherkasy 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dynamo Kyiv 54% | LNZ Cherkasy 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dynamo Kyiv 1.30 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 0.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.235 / defence 0.711 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.690 / defence 0.938. League average goals — home 1.120 / away 1.326. LNZ Cherkasy's attack rating of 0.690 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.65. Dynamo Kyiv have a tight defence (rating 0.711), which is pulling LNZ Cherkasy's projected output down. Data: built from Dynamo Kyiv's last 50 games and LNZ Cherkasy's last 22.
Result probabilities: Dynamo Kyiv 52% | Draw 29% | LNZ Cherkasy 19%. Fair-value odds: Dynamo Kyiv 1.91 | Draw 3.44 | LNZ Cherkasy 5.36. Dynamo Kyiv hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS Yes probability 35% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — LNZ Cherkasy's lower xG of 0.65 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dynamo Kyiv at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dynamo Kyiv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.95 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Dynamo Kyiv's last 10 home games and LNZ Cherkasy's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Dynamo Kyiv 30% (last 10 home games) | LNZ Cherkasy 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dynamo Kyiv vs LNZ Cherkasy | Competition: Premier League, matchday 23 | Venue: Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi • Kick-off: Monday 8 April 2024 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dynamo Kyiv 52% | Draw 29% | LNZ Cherkasy 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% (Under 69%) | BTTS Yes 35% (No 65%) | xG Dynamo Kyiv 1.30 / LNZ Cherkasy 0.65 • Poisson strength factors: Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.235 / def 0.711 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.690 / def 0.938 | league avg home 1.120 / away 1.326 • Poisson stance: Dynamo Kyiv (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Dynamo Kyiv xG
Expected Goals
0.65
LNZ Cherkasy xG
35%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Dynamo Kyiv vs LNZ Cherkasy FAQs
What time does Dynamo Kyiv vs LNZ Cherkasy kick off?
Dynamo Kyiv vs LNZ Cherkasy kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Monday 8 April 2024 at Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi.
What was the final score in Dynamo Kyiv vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Dynamo Kyiv 1 - 1 LNZ Cherkasy.
Where is Dynamo Kyiv vs LNZ Cherkasy being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi.
What competition is Dynamo Kyiv vs LNZ Cherkasy part of?
Dynamo Kyiv vs LNZ Cherkasy is a Premier League fixture (matchday 23) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Dynamo Kyiv vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our statistical model gives Dynamo Kyiv a 52% chance of winning, LNZ Cherkasy a 19% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Dynamo Kyiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dynamo Kyiv vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Dynamo Kyiv and LNZ Cherkasy will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (65%).
Will Dynamo Kyiv vs LNZ Cherkasy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (69%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Dynamo Kyiv's attack at 1.24x the league average against LNZ Cherkasy's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, LNZ Cherkasy's attack versus Dynamo Kyiv's defence, projects 0.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Dynamo Kyiv's last 50 games and LNZ Cherkasy's last 22 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.8%), 1-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dynamo Kyiv Win
52%
1.91
29%
3.44
19%
5.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.3%
Draw
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Dynamo Kyiv xG
Total xG
1.95
0.65
LNZ Cherkasy xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
5.36
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.88
65%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
52%
1.92
27%
3.66
Win to Nil
27%
3.67
5%
19.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.3 | 9.3 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.5 | 12.0 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 7.8 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Dynamo Kyiv vs LNZ Cherkasy Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Dynamo Kyiv vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.9%.
How many goals are Dynamo Kyiv and LNZ Cherkasy expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Dynamo Kyiv and 0.65 for LNZ Cherkasy, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Dynamo Kyiv vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dynamo Kyiv's recent record stands at 17W 3D 4L from 24 games, a 2.25 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five.
LNZ Cherkasy, meanwhile, have gone 7W 8D 9L across 24 games — 1.21 PPG, with W-D-D-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dynamo Kyiv by 1.04 — a real, if not enormous, edge over LNZ Cherkasy heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Dynamo Kyiv have managed 9W 0D 2L from their last 11 home games — 2.45 PPG in front of their own supporters.
LNZ Cherkasy's away record stands at 4W 4D 3L across their last 11 away games, a 1.45 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dynamo Kyiv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Dynamo Kyiv are averaging 2.54 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; LNZ Cherkasy are on 1.00 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Dynamo Kyiv have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dynamo Kyiv
Blended
LNZ Cherkasy
Blended
Dynamo Kyiv (Home) vs LNZ Cherkasy (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Dynamo Kyiv
Blended
LNZ Cherkasy
Blended
❓ Dynamo Kyiv vs LNZ Cherkasy Form FAQs
What form are Dynamo Kyiv and LNZ Cherkasy in coming into this match?
Dynamo Kyiv have gone 17W 3D 4L in their last 24 games (2.25 PPG), while LNZ Cherkasy have gone 7W 8D 9L in their last 24 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dynamo Kyiv at home or LNZ Cherkasy away?
Dynamo Kyiv's home record (2.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dynamo Kyiv at home: 2.45 PPG; LNZ Cherkasy away: 1.45 PPG.
Have Dynamo Kyiv or LNZ Cherkasy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dynamo Kyiv have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, LNZ Cherkasy in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 7 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2023. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 6 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Dynamo Kyiv's record when hosting LNZ Cherkasy specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Dynamo Kyiv
3
Draws
1
LNZ Cherkasy
Recent Meetings
❓ Dynamo Kyiv vs LNZ Cherkasy H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Dynamo Kyiv and LNZ Cherkasy?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Dynamo Kyiv have won 3, LNZ Cherkasy have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Dynamo Kyiv and LNZ Cherkasy last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 September 2026: Dynamo Kyiv 0-0 LNZ Cherkasy.
Who has won more matches between Dynamo Kyiv and LNZ Cherkasy?
Dynamo Kyiv have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dynamo Kyiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time.
LNZ Cherkasy see a goal before the break in 36% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Dynamo Kyiv 27% BTTS, LNZ Cherkasy 27%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Dynamo Kyiv) and 36% (LNZ Cherkasy).
On the defensive side: Dynamo Kyiv keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; LNZ Cherkasy in 46%; LNZ Cherkasy in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dynamo Kyiv home games / LNZ Cherkasy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Dynamo Kyiv vs LNZ Cherkasy Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Dynamo Kyiv and LNZ Cherkasy matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 27% of Dynamo Kyiv's recent matches and 27% of LNZ Cherkasy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Dynamo Kyiv and LNZ Cherkasy matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Dynamo Kyiv's recent games and 36% of LNZ Cherkasy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dynamo Kyiv and LNZ Cherkasy matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Dynamo Kyiv's recent matches and 36% of LNZ Cherkasy's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dynamo Kyiv and LNZ Cherkasy share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dynamo Kyiv and LNZ Cherkasy finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi, Regular Season - 23, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dynamo Kyiv 1.30 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 0.65 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.24 / defence 0.71 against LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.69 / defence 0.94, drawn from 50/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dynamo Kyiv 52% | Draw 29% | LNZ Cherkasy 19%, with Dynamo Kyiv to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dynamo Kyiv 54%, LNZ Cherkasy 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dynamo Kyiv's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Dynamo Kyiv arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Dynamo Kyiv (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.18 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.