Dynamo Kyiv 3-1 Chornomorets – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Dynamo Kyiv at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dynamo Kyiv vs Chornomorets encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dynamo Kyiv host Chornomorets at Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi in Premier League, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 23 November 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Dynamo Kyiv — All Games: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 2.60 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Dynamo Kyiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dynamo Kyiv's home record at Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Premier League appearances (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chornomorets stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Chornomorets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chornomorets's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
On current form, Dynamo Kyiv have the edge — a 1.70 PPG advantage (2.60 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Dynamo Kyiv, 2 for Chornomorets and 0 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Mar 2024, ended 1–0 with Dynamo Kyiv winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Dynamo Kyiv in-play tendencies (42 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Chornomorets in-play tendencies (42 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dynamo Kyiv 57% versus Chornomorets 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dynamo Kyiv 60% | Chornomorets 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dynamo Kyiv 1.71 xG and Chornomorets 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.435 / defence 0.928 | Chornomorets attack 0.889 / defence 1.002. League average goals — home 1.188 / away 1.029. Dynamo Kyiv carry an above-average attack strength of 1.435 — their λ of 1.71 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 42 Dynamo Kyiv games / 43 Chornomorets games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dynamo Kyiv 57% | Draw 25% | Chornomorets 18%. Fair-value odds: Dynamo Kyiv 1.75 | Draw 4.00 | Chornomorets 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Dynamo Kyiv (57%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dynamo Kyiv at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 4.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Dynamo Kyiv 60% | Chornomorets 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dynamo Kyiv vs Chornomorets | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Nov 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dynamo Kyiv 57% | Draw 25% | Chornomorets 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 47% | xG Dynamo Kyiv 1.71 / Chornomorets 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.435 / def 0.928 | Chornomorets attack 0.889 / def 1.002 | league avg home 1.188 / away 1.029 • Poisson stance: Dynamo Kyiv (57%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Dynamo Kyiv xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Chornomorets xG
47%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dynamo Kyiv vs Chornomorets kick off?
Dynamo Kyiv vs Chornomorets kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 23 November 2024 at Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi.
What was the final score in Dynamo Kyiv vs Chornomorets?
Dynamo Kyiv 3 - 1 Chornomorets.
Where is Dynamo Kyiv vs Chornomorets being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi.
What competition is Dynamo Kyiv vs Chornomorets part of?
Dynamo Kyiv vs Chornomorets is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Dynamo Kyiv vs Chornomorets?
Our statistical model gives Dynamo Kyiv a 57% chance of winning, Chornomorets a 18% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Dynamo Kyiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dynamo Kyiv vs Chornomorets?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Dynamo Kyiv and Chornomorets will score (BTTS).
Will Dynamo Kyiv vs Chornomorets have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dynamo Kyiv and Chornomorets?
Record (5 meetings): Dynamo Kyiv 3W | Draws 0 | Chornomorets 2W.
What form are Dynamo Kyiv and Chornomorets in?
Dynamo Kyiv (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Chornomorets (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Dynamo Kyiv vs Chornomorets?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Dynamo Kyiv's attacking strength (1.44x league average) is weighed against Chornomorets's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.71. The same calculation in reverse, Chornomorets's attack versus Dynamo Kyiv's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 2-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dynamo Kyiv Win
57%
1.75
25%
4.03
18%
5.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Dynamo Kyiv xG
Total xG
2.56
0.85
Chornomorets xG
1.75
57%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
5.57
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
18%
5.52
Win to Nil
24%
4.08
3%
30.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.2 | 11.2 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.6 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.4 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dynamo Kyiv vs Chornomorets?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Dynamo Kyiv and Chornomorets expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Dynamo Kyiv and 0.85 for Chornomorets, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Dynamo Kyiv vs Chornomorets?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Dynamo Kyiv come into this having played 42 games, going 32W 5D 5L for 2.40 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-W. The sample for Dynamo Kyiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Chornomorets sit at 0.98 PPG from 42 outings (12W 5D 25L), a run that reads W-D-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Chornomorets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dynamo Kyiv carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.42 PPG clear of Chornomorets — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Dynamo Kyiv's home form reads 14W 3D 2L across 19 games on their own ground, a 2.37 PPG return.
Away from home, Chornomorets have taken 0.47 points per game from 19 outings (2W 3D 14L). That's a step down from their 0.98 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Chornomorets's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dynamo Kyiv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Dynamo Kyiv are averaging 2.40 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Chornomorets are on 1.05 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Defensively: Dynamo Kyiv have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dynamo Kyiv
Blended
Chornomorets
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dynamo Kyiv and Chornomorets in coming into this match?
Dynamo Kyiv have gone 32W 5D 5L in their last 42 games (2.40 PPG), while Chornomorets have gone 12W 5D 25L in their last 42 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dynamo Kyiv at home or Chornomorets away?
Dynamo Kyiv's home record (2.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dynamo Kyiv at home: 2.37 PPG; Chornomorets away: 0.47 PPG.
Have Dynamo Kyiv or Chornomorets been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dynamo Kyiv have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Chornomorets in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Nov 2021, when Dynamo Kyiv won 1-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dynamo Kyiv's record when hosting Chornomorets specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Dynamo Kyiv
1
Draws
2
Chornomorets
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dynamo Kyiv and Chornomorets?
From 7 meetings on record, Dynamo Kyiv have won 4, Chornomorets have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dynamo Kyiv and Chornomorets last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2025, when Chornomorets 1-1 Dynamo Kyiv.
Who has won more matches between Dynamo Kyiv and Chornomorets?
Dynamo Kyiv have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dynamo Kyiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 63% of the time.
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dynamo Kyiv 42%, Chornomorets 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Dynamo Kyiv) and 42% (Chornomorets).
On the defensive side: Dynamo Kyiv keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Chornomorets in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dynamo Kyiv home games / Chornomorets away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dynamo Kyiv play Chornomorets?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Dynamo Kyiv's recent matches and 53% of Chornomorets's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dynamo Kyiv vs Chornomorets usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Dynamo Kyiv's recent games and 42% of Chornomorets's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dynamo Kyiv and Chornomorets tend to score early?
Dynamo Kyiv have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Chornomorets in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dynamo Kyiv cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Chornomorets.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dynamo Kyiv beat Chornomorets 3-1 at Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dynamo Kyiv 1.71 xG and Chornomorets 0.85 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Dynamo Kyiv beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.44 / defence 0.93 against Chornomorets attack 0.89 / defence 1.00, drawn from 42/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dynamo Kyiv 57% | Draw 25% | Chornomorets 18%, with Dynamo Kyiv to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dynamo Kyiv 60%, Chornomorets 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dynamo Kyiv's trading profile (42 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Chornomorets's trading profile (42 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Dynamo Kyiv arrived the stronger side — 2.40 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Dynamo Kyiv (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.11 average — above their attacking norm. Chornomorets (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.