Dnipro-1 1-2 Vorskla Poltava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dnipro-1 at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dnipro-1 vs Vorskla Poltava encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Dnipro-1 and Vorskla Poltava meet at Stadion Avanhard in Premier League, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 24 May 2023 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Dnipro-1's overall Premier League record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Dnipro-1, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dnipro-1 at Stadion Avanhard this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Vorskla Poltava have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Vorskla Poltava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Vorskla Poltava have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Dnipro-1's 2.50 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Vorskla Poltava's 1.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Dnipro-1, 0 for Vorskla Poltava and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 13 Nov 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Dnipro-1 — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Vorskla Poltava — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dnipro-1 47% versus Vorskla Poltava 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dnipro-1 64% | Vorskla Poltava 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dnipro-1 2.12 xG and Vorskla Poltava 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dnipro-1 attack 1.603 / defence 1.014 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.926 / defence 1.095. League average goals — home 1.209 / away 1.186. Dnipro-1 carry an above-average attack strength of 1.603 — their λ of 2.12 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 45 Dnipro-1 games / 45 Vorskla Poltava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dnipro-1 60% | Draw 20% | Vorskla Poltava 19%. Fair-value odds: Dnipro-1 1.67 | Draw 5.00 | Vorskla Poltava 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Dnipro-1 (60%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dnipro-1 are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.24 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Dnipro-1 70% | Vorskla Poltava 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dnipro-1 vs Vorskla Poltava | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadion Avanhard • Kick-off: Wednesday 24 May 2023, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dnipro-1 60% | Draw 20% | Vorskla Poltava 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 59% | xG Dnipro-1 2.12 / Vorskla Poltava 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Dnipro-1 attack 1.603 / def 1.014 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.926 / def 1.095 | league avg home 1.209 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Dnipro-1 (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.12
Dnipro-1 xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Vorskla Poltava xG
59%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dnipro-1 vs Vorskla Poltava kick off?
Dnipro-1 vs Vorskla Poltava kicked off at 11:00 on Wednesday 24 May 2023 at Stadion Avanhard.
What was the final score in Dnipro-1 vs Vorskla Poltava?
Dnipro-1 1 - 2 Vorskla Poltava.
Where is Dnipro-1 vs Vorskla Poltava being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Avanhard.
What competition is Dnipro-1 vs Vorskla Poltava part of?
Dnipro-1 vs Vorskla Poltava is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Dnipro-1 vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our statistical model gives Dnipro-1 a 60% chance of winning, Vorskla Poltava a 19% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Dnipro-1 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dnipro-1 vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Dnipro-1 and Vorskla Poltava will score (BTTS).
Will Dnipro-1 vs Vorskla Poltava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dnipro-1 and Vorskla Poltava?
Record (3 meetings): Dnipro-1 1W | Draws 2 | Vorskla Poltava 0W.
What form are Dnipro-1 and Vorskla Poltava in?
Dnipro-1 (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Dnipro-1's attacking strength (1.60x league average) is weighed against Vorskla Poltava's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.12. Flip it around — Vorskla Poltava's attack (0.93x) against Dnipro-1's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dnipro-1 Win
60%
1.65
20%
4.90
19%
5.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
2 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.12
Dnipro-1 xG
Total xG
3.24
1.11
Vorskla Poltava xG
1.65
60%
Home win
4.90
20%
Draw
5.22
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
12%
8.35
Win to Nil
20%
5.04
2%
43.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dnipro-1 vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Dnipro-1 and Vorskla Poltava expected to score?
The model projects 2.12 expected goals for Dnipro-1 and 1.11 for Vorskla Poltava, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Dnipro-1 vs Vorskla Poltava?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Dnipro-1's recent record stands at 33W 5D 7L from 45 games, a 2.31 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Dnipro-1 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vorskla Poltava, meanwhile, have gone 19W 12D 14L across 45 games — 1.53 PPG, with D-L-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Vorskla Poltava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dnipro-1 by 0.78 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vorskla Poltava heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Dnipro-1 have managed 18W 2D 2L from 22 games — 2.55 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Vorskla Poltava's away record stands at 7W 6D 9L across 22 trips, a 1.23 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dnipro-1 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Dnipro-1 are averaging 2.09 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Vorskla Poltava are on 1.38 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: Dnipro-1 have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; Vorskla Poltava in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dnipro-1
Blended
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dnipro-1 and Vorskla Poltava in coming into this match?
Dnipro-1 have gone 33W 5D 7L in their last 45 games (2.31 PPG), while Vorskla Poltava have gone 19W 12D 14L in their last 45 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dnipro-1 at home or Vorskla Poltava away?
Dnipro-1's home record (2.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dnipro-1 at home: 2.55 PPG; Vorskla Poltava away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Dnipro-1 or Vorskla Poltava been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dnipro-1 have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Vorskla Poltava in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 December 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dnipro-1 won 5-1 on 27 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dnipro-1 have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Vorskla Poltava — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Dnipro-1
2
Draws
2
Vorskla Poltava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dnipro-1 and Vorskla Poltava?
From 6 meetings on record, Dnipro-1 have won 2, Vorskla Poltava have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dnipro-1 and Vorskla Poltava last play each other?
They last met on 2 December 2023, when Dnipro-1 1-2 Vorskla Poltava.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dnipro-1 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Vorskla Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dnipro-1 50%, Vorskla Poltava 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Dnipro-1) and 46% (Vorskla Poltava). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dnipro-1 keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dnipro-1 home games / Vorskla Poltava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dnipro-1 play Vorskla Poltava?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Dnipro-1's recent matches and 59% of Vorskla Poltava's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dnipro-1 vs Vorskla Poltava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Dnipro-1's matches and 46% of Vorskla Poltava's.
Do Dnipro-1 and Vorskla Poltava tend to score early?
Dnipro-1 have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Vorskla Poltava in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Vorskla Poltava defy the odds to beat Dnipro-1 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vorskla Poltava beat Dnipro-1 1-2 at Stadion Avanhard, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dnipro-1 2.12 xG and Vorskla Poltava 1.11 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Dnipro-1 fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Vorskla Poltava outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dnipro-1 attack 1.60 / defence 1.01 against Vorskla Poltava attack 0.93 / defence 1.09, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dnipro-1 60% | Draw 20% | Vorskla Poltava 19%, with Dnipro-1 to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Vorskla Poltava win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dnipro-1 64%, Vorskla Poltava 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dnipro-1's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Dnipro-1 arrived the stronger side — 2.31 PPG against 1.53. Form was overturned, with Vorskla Poltava winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Dnipro-1 (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.45 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Vorskla Poltava (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.