Chornomorets 2-3 Ruh Lviv – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Chornomorets at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Chornomorets face Ruh Lviv.

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Fixture Analysis

Chornomorets welcome Ruh Lviv to Stadion Chornomorets in Premier League (matchday 14). Kick-off is Sunday 12 November 2023 at 15:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Chornomorets have gone 5W 1D 4L — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

Chornomorets's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Ruh Lviv stand at 2W 6D 2L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Ruh Lviv have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Chornomorets at 1.60 PPG versus Ruh Lviv's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Chornomorets, 1 for Ruh Lviv and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 5.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 29 May 2023, ended Chornomorets 1–3 Ruh Lviv — a Ruh Lviv win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Chornomorets trading profile (last 42 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).

Ruh Lviv trading profile (last 42 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chornomorets 50% versus Ruh Lviv 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chornomorets 52% | Ruh Lviv 43%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Chornomorets surrender their half-time lead 28% of the time, while Ruh Lviv have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 43% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Chornomorets 1.37 xG and Ruh Lviv 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chornomorets attack 1.166 / defence 0.744 | Ruh Lviv attack 1.397 / defence 1.059. League average goals — home 1.109 / away 1.186. Ruh Lviv have an above-average attack rating of 1.397, which lifts their away xG to 1.23. Chornomorets have a tight defence (rating 0.744), which is pulling Ruh Lviv's projected output down. Data: built from Chornomorets's last 42 games and Ruh Lviv's last 43.

Result probabilities: Chornomorets 40% | Draw 27% | Ruh Lviv 33%. Fair-value odds: Chornomorets 2.53 | Draw 3.66 | Ruh Lviv 3.02. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Chornomorets at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chornomorets offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 52% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 5.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Chornomorets 30% (last 10 home games) | Ruh Lviv 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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