Chornomorets 3-0 FC Kharkiv – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Chornomorets at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Chornomorets face FC Kharkiv.

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Analysis & Preview

FC Kharkiv travel to Stadion Chornomorets to take on Chornomorets in Premier League (matchday 28). The game is scheduled for Sunday 12 May 2024 at 14:30 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Chornomorets stand at 2W 0D 8L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market.

Chornomorets's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

FC Kharkiv — last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

When travelling, FC Kharkiv have posted 0W 2D 8L from their last 10 away outings — 0.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Chornomorets at 0.60 PPG versus FC Kharkiv's 0.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Chornomorets, 2 for FC Kharkiv and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 5 Nov 2023, ended Chornomorets 1–2 FC Kharkiv — a FC Kharkiv win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Chornomorets trading profile (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

FC Kharkiv trading profile (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chornomorets 51% versus FC Kharkiv 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chornomorets 53% | FC Kharkiv 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Chornomorets 1.69 xG and FC Kharkiv 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chornomorets attack 1.000 / defence 1.300 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.835 / defence 1.381. League average goals — home 1.219 / away 1.180. FC Kharkiv's defence rating of 1.381 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Chornomorets's projected output up. Chornomorets's defence rating of 1.300 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing FC Kharkiv's projected output up. Data: built from Chornomorets's last 57 games and FC Kharkiv's last 57.

Result probabilities: Chornomorets 47% | Draw 24% | FC Kharkiv 29%. Fair-value odds: Chornomorets 2.13 | Draw 4.18 | FC Kharkiv 3.43. Chornomorets hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Chornomorets at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chornomorets offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Chornomorets's last 10 home games and FC Kharkiv's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Chornomorets 50% (last 10 home games) | FC Kharkiv 60% (last 10 away games).

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