Chornomorets 0-1 Karpaty – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chornomorets at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chornomorets vs Karpaty fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Chornomorets plays host to Chornomorets versus Karpaty in Premier League, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Saturday 21 September 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Form
Chornomorets (all games): 3W 0D 7L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Chornomorets have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Chornomorets's form when playing at home: 4W 0D 6L across 10 games at Stadion Chornomorets this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Karpaty's overall Premier League record this term: 1W 2D 3L from 6 games (0.83 PPG). Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 1.83 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Karpaty have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Karpaty have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 away fixtures this term (0.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Chornomorets, 0.83 for Karpaty — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Chornomorets goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Karpaty goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chornomorets 17% versus Karpaty 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chornomorets 17% | Karpaty 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chornomorets 1.55 xG and Karpaty 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chornomorets attack 0.837 / defence 1.089 | Karpaty attack 0.870 / defence 1.436. League average goals — home 1.294 / away 1.210. Karpaty bring a strong defensive rating of 1.436 — this is suppressing Chornomorets's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 Chornomorets games / 6 Karpaty games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chornomorets 47% | Draw 25% | Karpaty 28%. Fair-value odds: Chornomorets 2.13 | Draw 4.00 | Karpaty 3.57. Chornomorets hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chornomorets at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chornomorets if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Chornomorets 40% | Karpaty 67%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chornomorets vs Karpaty | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadion Chornomorets • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Sep 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chornomorets 47% | Draw 25% | Karpaty 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Chornomorets 1.55 / Karpaty 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Chornomorets attack 0.837 / def 1.089 | Karpaty attack 0.870 / def 1.436 | league avg home 1.294 / away 1.210 • Poisson stance: Chornomorets (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Chornomorets xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Karpaty xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chornomorets vs Karpaty kick off?
Chornomorets vs Karpaty kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 21 September 2024 at Stadion Chornomorets.
What was the final score in Chornomorets vs Karpaty?
Chornomorets 0 - 1 Karpaty.
Where is Chornomorets vs Karpaty being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Chornomorets.
What competition is Chornomorets vs Karpaty part of?
Chornomorets vs Karpaty is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Chornomorets vs Karpaty?
Our statistical model gives Chornomorets a 47% chance of winning, Karpaty a 28% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Chornomorets the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chornomorets vs Karpaty?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Chornomorets and Karpaty will score (BTTS).
Will Chornomorets vs Karpaty have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Karpaty?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chornomorets and Karpaty in?
Chornomorets (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Karpaty (all comps): 1W-2D-3L in 6 | 0.83 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.83 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Chornomorets's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Karpaty's defensive record (1.44x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. Flip it around — Karpaty's attack (0.87x) against Chornomorets's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 36/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chornomorets Win
47%
2.14
25%
3.97
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Chornomorets xG
Total xG
2.70
1.15
Karpaty xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
21%
4.74
Win to Nil
15%
6.72
6%
16.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 7.7 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.0 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chornomorets vs Karpaty?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Chornomorets and Karpaty expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Chornomorets and 1.15 for Karpaty, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Chornomorets vs Karpaty?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Chornomorets's recent record stands at 2W 0D 4L from 6 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Chornomorets, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Karpaty, meanwhile, have gone 1W 2D 3L across 6 games — 0.83 PPG, with W-L-L-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Karpaty, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Chornomorets against 0.83 for Karpaty. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Chornomorets have managed 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Chornomorets are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Karpaty's away record stands at 0W 1D 2L across 3 trips, a 0.33 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.83 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Karpaty's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chornomorets come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Chornomorets are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Karpaty are on 1.33 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chornomorets have seen both teams score in 17% of their recent games; Karpaty in 67%.
Last 6 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chornomorets
Early Season
Karpaty
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chornomorets and Karpaty in coming into this match?
Chornomorets have gone 2W 0D 4L in their last 6 games (1.00 PPG), while Karpaty have gone 1W 2D 3L in their last 6 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chornomorets at home or Karpaty away?
Chornomorets's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chornomorets at home: 2.00 PPG; Karpaty away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Chornomorets or Karpaty been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chornomorets have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Karpaty in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Chornomorets
0
Draws
2
Karpaty
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Karpaty?
From 2 meetings on record, Chornomorets have won 0, Karpaty have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Chornomorets and Karpaty last play each other?
They last met on 30 March 2025, when Karpaty 4-0 Chornomorets.
Who has won more matches between Chornomorets and Karpaty?
Karpaty have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Karpaty are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chornomorets 33%, Karpaty 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Chornomorets) and 67% (Karpaty).
On the defensive side: Chornomorets keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Karpaty in 33%; Karpaty in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chornomorets home games / Karpaty away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chornomorets play Karpaty?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Chornomorets's recent matches and 67% of Karpaty's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chornomorets vs Karpaty usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Chornomorets's recent games and 67% of Karpaty's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chornomorets and Karpaty tend to score early?
Chornomorets have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Karpaty in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Karpaty defy the odds to beat Chornomorets 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Karpaty beat Chornomorets 0-1 at Stadion Chornomorets, Regular Season - 7, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chornomorets 1.55 xG and Karpaty 1.15 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Chornomorets fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chornomorets attack 0.84 / defence 1.09 against Karpaty attack 0.87 / defence 1.44, drawn from 36/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chornomorets 47% | Draw 25% | Karpaty 28%, with Chornomorets to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Karpaty win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chornomorets 17%, Karpaty 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chornomorets's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 17% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Karpaty's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chornomorets 1.00 PPG, Karpaty 0.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Karpaty win broke the near-deadlock. Chornomorets (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Karpaty (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.