Yeni Malatyaspor 2-6 Alanyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Yeni Malatyaspor at 36%, yet in-form Alanyaspor provide a compelling counter-argument — this Yeni Malatyaspor vs Alanyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Alanyaspor travel to Yeni Malatya Stadyumu to take on Yeni Malatyaspor. The game is scheduled for Sunday 12 December 2021, 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Yeni Malatyaspor have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Yeni Malatyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Yeni Malatyaspor's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 5L across 8 games at Yeni Malatya Stadyumu this term (0.88 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Alanyaspor stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Alanyaspor have posted 3W 2D 3L from 8 away outings — 1.38 PPG. Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Alanyaspor are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
Yeni Malatyaspor trading profile (15 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
Alanyaspor trading profile (15 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Yeni Malatyaspor 27% | Alanyaspor 40%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Yeni Malatyaspor 33% | Alanyaspor 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Yeni Malatyaspor 1.18 xG and Alanyaspor 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.791 / defence 1.425 | Alanyaspor attack 0.709 / defence 1.259. League average goals — home 1.185 / away 1.102. Yeni Malatyaspor's attack strength of 0.791 is below the league average — the 1.18 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Alanyaspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.259 — this is suppressing Yeni Malatyaspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Yeni Malatyaspor games / 15 Alanyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Yeni Malatyaspor 36% | Draw 30% | Alanyaspor 33%. Fair-value odds: Yeni Malatyaspor 2.78 | Draw 3.33 | Alanyaspor 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Yeni Malatyaspor as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Alanyaspor (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Yeni Malatyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Yeni Malatyaspor 50% | Alanyaspor 38% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Yeni Malatyaspor vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Yeni Malatya Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Dec 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Yeni Malatyaspor 36% | Draw 30% | Alanyaspor 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG Yeni Malatyaspor 1.18 / Alanyaspor 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.791 / def 1.425 | Alanyaspor attack 0.709 / def 1.259 | league avg home 1.185 / away 1.102 • Poisson stance: Yeni Malatyaspor (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Yeni Malatyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Alanyaspor xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Yeni Malatyaspor vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Yeni Malatyaspor vs Alanyaspor kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 12 December 2021 at Yeni Malatya Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Yeni Malatyaspor vs Alanyaspor?
Yeni Malatyaspor 2 - 6 Alanyaspor.
Where is Yeni Malatyaspor vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Malatya Stadyumu.
What competition is Yeni Malatyaspor vs Alanyaspor part of?
Yeni Malatyaspor vs Alanyaspor is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Yeni Malatyaspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Yeni Malatyaspor a 36% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Yeni Malatyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Yeni Malatyaspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Yeni Malatyaspor and Alanyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Yeni Malatyaspor vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Yeni Malatyaspor and Alanyaspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Yeni Malatyaspor and Alanyaspor in?
Yeni Malatyaspor (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Alanyaspor (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Yeni Malatyaspor's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Alanyaspor's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. The same calculation in reverse, Alanyaspor's attack versus Yeni Malatyaspor's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Yeni Malatyaspor Win
36%
2.74
30%
3.29
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Yeni Malatyaspor xG
Total xG
2.29
1.11
Alanyaspor xG
2.74
36%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
31%
3.25
Win to Nil
12%
8.35
10%
9.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 11.2 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.3 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 7.8 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Yeni Malatyaspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Yeni Malatyaspor and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Yeni Malatyaspor and 1.11 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Yeni Malatyaspor vs Alanyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Yeni Malatyaspor's recent record stands at 4W 2D 9L from 15 games, a 0.93 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Yeni Malatyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Alanyaspor, meanwhile, have gone 7W 3D 5L across 15 games — 1.60 PPG, with D-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Alanyaspor by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Yeni Malatyaspor heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Yeni Malatyaspor have managed 2W 1D 5L from 8 games — 0.88 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Alanyaspor's away record stands at 3W 2D 3L across 8 trips, a 1.38 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alanyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Yeni Malatyaspor are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.33 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Yeni Malatyaspor have seen both teams score in 27% of their recent games.
Last 15 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Yeni Malatyaspor
Blended
Alanyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Yeni Malatyaspor and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Yeni Malatyaspor have gone 4W 2D 9L in their last 15 games (0.93 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 7W 3D 5L in their last 15 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Yeni Malatyaspor at home or Alanyaspor away?
Alanyaspor's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Yeni Malatyaspor at home: 0.88 PPG; Alanyaspor away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Yeni Malatyaspor or Alanyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Yeni Malatyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Alanyaspor in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Yeni Malatyaspor and Alanyaspor runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Yeni Malatyaspor
0
Draws
2
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Yeni Malatyaspor and Alanyaspor?
From 2 meetings on record, Yeni Malatyaspor have won 0, Alanyaspor have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Yeni Malatyaspor and Alanyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2022, when Alanyaspor 2-1 Yeni Malatyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Yeni Malatyaspor and Alanyaspor?
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Yeni Malatyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Yeni Malatyaspor 50%, Alanyaspor 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Yeni Malatyaspor) and 38% (Alanyaspor).
On the defensive side: Yeni Malatyaspor have failed to score in 38% of games; Alanyaspor in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Yeni Malatyaspor home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Yeni Malatyaspor play Alanyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Yeni Malatyaspor's recent matches and 38% of Alanyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Yeni Malatyaspor vs Alanyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Yeni Malatyaspor's recent games and 38% of Alanyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Yeni Malatyaspor and Alanyaspor tend to score early?
Yeni Malatyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Alanyaspor in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Alanyaspor run riot with a 2-6 hammering of Yeni Malatyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alanyaspor beat Yeni Malatyaspor 2-6 at Yeni Malatya Stadyumu, Regular Season - 16, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Yeni Malatyaspor 1.18 xG and Alanyaspor 1.11 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 2-6 for 8 actual goals. Yeni Malatyaspor beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Alanyaspor outscored their 1.11 projection by 4.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.79 / defence 1.43 against Alanyaspor attack 0.71 / defence 1.26, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Yeni Malatyaspor 36% | Draw 30% | Alanyaspor 33%, with Yeni Malatyaspor to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Alanyaspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Yeni Malatyaspor 33%, Alanyaspor 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Yeni Malatyaspor's trading profile (15 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Alanyaspor's trading profile (15 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Alanyaspor arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.93. Form held, and they took the win. Yeni Malatyaspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 6 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.