Trabzonspor 2-2 Kasımpaşa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trabzonspor at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kasımpaşa make the trip to Papara Park to face Trabzonspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Friday 6 December 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Trabzonspor have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trabzonspor at Papara Park this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Trabzonspor are significantly better at Papara Park than their overall form suggests.
Kasımpaşa's overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kasımpaşa's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Trabzonspor, 1.30 for Kasımpaşa — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Trabzonspor lead 2W to 2W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Jan 2024, ended 2–3 with Kasımpaşa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Trabzonspor — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Kasımpaşa — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 36% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Trabzonspor 59% and Kasımpaşa 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 57% | Kasımpaşa 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 1.68 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 1.350 / defence 0.992 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.106 / defence 0.791. League average goals — home 1.573 / away 1.285. Trabzonspor carry an above-average attack strength of 1.350 — their λ of 1.68 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Kasımpaşa's defence strength of 0.791 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 51 Trabzonspor games / 51 Kasımpaşa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 42% | Draw 27% | Kasımpaşa 31%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Kasımpaşa 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.68 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Trabzonspor are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.09 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Trabzonspor 60% | Kasımpaşa 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Papara Park • Kick-off: Friday 6 Dec 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trabzonspor 42% | Draw 27% | Kasımpaşa 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 63% | xG Trabzonspor 1.68 / Kasımpaşa 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Trabzonspor attack 1.350 / def 0.992 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.106 / def 0.791 | league avg home 1.573 / away 1.285 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Trabzonspor xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Kasımpaşa xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 6 December 2024 at Papara Park.
What was the final score in Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Trabzonspor 2 - 2 Kasımpaşa.
Where is Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa being played?
The match is being played at Papara Park.
What competition is Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Trabzonspor a 42% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Trabzonspor and Kasımpaşa will score (BTTS).
Will Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Kasımpaşa?
Record (5 meetings): Trabzonspor 2W | Draws 1 | Kasımpaşa 2W.
What form are Trabzonspor and Kasımpaşa in?
Trabzonspor (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Kasımpaşa (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Trabzonspor's attacking strength (1.35x league average) is weighed against Kasımpaşa's defensive record (0.79x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.68. Flip it around — Kasımpaşa's attack (1.11x) against Trabzonspor's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
42%
2.35
27%
3.75
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Trabzonspor xG
Total xG
3.09
1.41
Kasımpaşa xG
2.35
42%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
24%
4.10
19%
5.37
Win to Nil
10%
9.64
6%
17.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.4 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 10.8 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.1 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.1 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Trabzonspor and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 1.41 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Trabzonspor's recent record stands at 24W 10D 17L from 51 games, a 1.61 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kasımpaşa, meanwhile, have gone 19W 14D 18L across 51 games — 1.39 PPG, with W-L-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.61 PPG for Trabzonspor against 1.39 for Kasımpaşa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Trabzonspor have managed 15W 3D 7L from 25 games — 1.92 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kasımpaşa's away record stands at 10W 7D 8L across 25 trips, a 1.48 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Trabzonspor are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 1.53 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa in 65%.
Last 51 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trabzonspor
Blended
Kasımpaşa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trabzonspor and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Trabzonspor have gone 24W 10D 17L in their last 51 games (1.61 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 19W 14D 18L in their last 51 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trabzonspor at home or Kasımpaşa away?
Trabzonspor's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trabzonspor at home: 1.92 PPG; Kasımpaşa away: 1.48 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since February 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Trabzonspor won 1-5 on 1 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Trabzonspor have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Kasımpaşa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Trabzonspor
4
Draws
2
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Kasımpaşa?
From 10 meetings on record, Trabzonspor have won 4, Kasımpaşa have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Trabzonspor and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Kasımpaşa 1-1 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Trabzonspor and Kasımpaşa?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trabzonspor 60%, Kasımpaşa 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Trabzonspor and 60% for Kasımpaşa. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trabzonspor home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trabzonspor play Kasımpaşa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Trabzonspor's games and 64% of Kasımpaşa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Trabzonspor's matches and 60% of Kasımpaşa's.
Do Trabzonspor and Kasımpaşa tend to score early?
Trabzonspor have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Kasımpaşa in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Trabzonspor and Kasımpaşa share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor and Kasımpaşa finished level at 2-2 at Papara Park, Regular Season - 15, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 1.68 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.41 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 1.35 / defence 0.99 against Kasımpaşa attack 1.11 / defence 0.79, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 42% | Draw 27% | Kasımpaşa 31%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 57%, Kasımpaşa 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trabzonspor's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Trabzonspor 1.61 PPG, Kasımpaşa 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.