Trabzonspor 1-0 Bodrum FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trabzonspor at 75% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Trabzonspor face Bodrum FK.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Trabzonspor host Bodrum FK at Papara Park in Süper Lig (matchday 17). Kick-off is Sunday 22 December 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Trabzonspor — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Trabzonspor have posted 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Trabzonspor are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Bodrum FK have recorded 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling, Bodrum FK have posted 1W 1D 5L from their last 7 away outings — 0.57 PPG. Away from home they average 0.57 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.57 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Trabzonspor at 1.10 PPG versus Bodrum FK's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Trabzonspor in-play and half-time data (last 15 games, 7 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Bodrum FK in-play and half-time data (last 15 games, 7 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 60% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trabzonspor 67% versus Bodrum FK 27%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 60% | Bodrum FK 33%). Note also that Bodrum FK surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Trabzonspor recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 60% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 2.74 xG and Bodrum FK 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 1.315 / defence 1.089 | Bodrum FK attack 0.696 / defence 1.264. League average goals — home 1.651 / away 1.175. Trabzonspor carry an above-average attack rating of 1.315 — their 2.74 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Bodrum FK's defence rating of 1.264 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Trabzonspor's projected output up. Bodrum FK's attack rating of 0.696 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.89. Data: built from Trabzonspor's last 53 games and Bodrum FK's last 15.
Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 75% | Draw 17% | Bodrum FK 8%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 1.33 | Draw 6.00 | Bodrum FK 11.96. The model has a clear lean to Trabzonspor (75%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 3.63. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.63 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Trabzonspor are the pick at 75% — clear model lean.
Poisson projects 3.63 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Trabzonspor's last 10 home games and Bodrum FK's last 7 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Trabzonspor 70% (last 10 home games) | Bodrum FK 29% (last 7 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trabzonspor vs Bodrum FK | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 17 | Venue: Papara Park • Kick-off: Sunday 22 December 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trabzonspor 75% | Draw 17% | Bodrum FK 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% (Under 30%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Trabzonspor 2.74 / Bodrum FK 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Trabzonspor attack 1.315 / def 1.089 | Bodrum FK attack 0.696 / def 1.264 | league avg home 1.651 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.74
Trabzonspor xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Bodrum FK xG
56%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Trabzonspor vs Bodrum FK FAQs
What time does Trabzonspor vs Bodrum FK kick off?
Trabzonspor vs Bodrum FK kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 22 December 2024 at Papara Park.
What was the final score in Trabzonspor vs Bodrum FK?
Trabzonspor 1 - 0 Bodrum FK.
Where is Trabzonspor vs Bodrum FK being played?
The match is being played at Papara Park.
What competition is Trabzonspor vs Bodrum FK part of?
Trabzonspor vs Bodrum FK is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 17) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Trabzonspor vs Bodrum FK?
Our statistical model gives Trabzonspor a 75% chance of winning, Bodrum FK a 8% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Bodrum FK?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Trabzonspor and Bodrum FK will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Trabzonspor vs Bodrum FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Trabzonspor's attack rating (1.31) and Bodrum FK's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 2.74 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bodrum FK's attack versus Trabzonspor's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Trabzonspor's last 53 games and Bodrum FK's last 15 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.0%. Close behind: 3-0 (9.1%), 2-1 (8.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
75%
1.33
17%
6.00
8%
11.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
9.1%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.74
Trabzonspor xG
Total xG
3.63
0.89
Bodrum FK xG
1.33
75%
Home win
6.00
17%
Draw
11.96
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
6%
15.52
Win to Nil
31%
3.25
1%
185.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.3 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.0 | 8.9 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 9.1 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 6.2 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Trabzonspor vs Bodrum FK Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Trabzonspor vs Bodrum FK?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Trabzonspor and Bodrum FK expected to score?
The model projects 2.74 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 0.89 for Bodrum FK, a combined total of 3.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Trabzonspor vs Bodrum FK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Trabzonspor's recent record stands at 3W 7D 5L from 15 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-L in the last five.
Bodrum FK, meanwhile, have gone 4W 2D 9L across 15 games — 0.93 PPG, with D-L-L-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Trabzonspor on 1.07 PPG, Bodrum FK on 0.93. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Trabzonspor have managed 3W 3D 1L from their last 7 home games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.07 PPG overall — Trabzonspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Bodrum FK's away record stands at 1W 1D 5L across their last 7 away games, a 0.57 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Trabzonspor are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Bodrum FK are on 0.80 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trabzonspor have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Bodrum FK in 27%.
Last 15 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trabzonspor
Blended
Bodrum FK
Blended
Trabzonspor (Home) vs Bodrum FK (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Trabzonspor
Blended
Bodrum FK
Blended
❓ Trabzonspor vs Bodrum FK Form FAQs
What form are Trabzonspor and Bodrum FK in coming into this match?
Trabzonspor have gone 3W 7D 5L in their last 15 games (1.07 PPG), while Bodrum FK have gone 4W 2D 9L in their last 15 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trabzonspor at home or Bodrum FK away?
Trabzonspor's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trabzonspor at home: 1.71 PPG; Bodrum FK away: 0.57 PPG.
Have Trabzonspor or Bodrum FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Bodrum FK in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2024. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent in our data was on 18 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Trabzonspor
1
Draws
0
Bodrum FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Trabzonspor vs Bodrum FK H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Bodrum FK?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Trabzonspor have won 1, Bodrum FK have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Trabzonspor and Bodrum FK last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 May 2025: Bodrum FK 1-1 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Trabzonspor and Bodrum FK?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Bodrum FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trabzonspor 71%, Bodrum FK 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Trabzonspor) and 43% (Bodrum FK). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 71% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bodrum FK in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trabzonspor home games / Bodrum FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Trabzonspor vs Bodrum FK Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Trabzonspor and Bodrum FK matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 71% of Trabzonspor's recent matches and 29% of Bodrum FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Trabzonspor and Bodrum FK matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Trabzonspor's matches and 43% of Bodrum FK's.
Do Trabzonspor and Bodrum FK matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 86% of Trabzonspor's recent matches and 86% of Bodrum FK's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Trabzonspor edge out Bodrum FK 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat Bodrum FK 1-0 at Papara Park, Regular Season - 17, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 2.74 xG and Bodrum FK 0.89 xG, a combined 3.63. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Trabzonspor fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Bodrum FK landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 1.31 / defence 1.09 against Bodrum FK attack 0.70 / defence 1.26, drawn from 53/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 75% | Draw 17% | Bodrum FK 8%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 75%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 89% and missed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 60%, Bodrum FK 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trabzonspor's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bodrum FK's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 60% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Trabzonspor 1.07 PPG, Bodrum FK 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Trabzonspor win broke the near-deadlock. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. Bodrum FK (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.