Trabzonspor vs Amed – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trabzonspor at 78%, yet other data sources diverge — this Trabzonspor vs Amed fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 20 as Trabzonspor welcome Amed to Papara Park. Kick-off is set for Sunday 7 February 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Trabzonspor stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trabzonspor's home record at Papara Park: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Amed — All Games: 5W 2D 1L from 8 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 2.12 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.25 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets in 8 outings (38%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Amed, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Amed's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 1L across 3 road games this term (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.67 is notably below their overall 2.12 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.90 PPG (Trabzonspor) versus 2.12 (Amed). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Trabzonspor have won 0, Amed 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2026, ended 1–2 with Amed winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Trabzonspor in-play tendencies (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Amed in-play tendencies (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trabzonspor 38% versus Amed 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Trabzonspor 62% | Amed 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 2.77 xG and Amed 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 1.422 / defence 0.711 | Amed attack 0.995 / defence 1.238. League average goals — home 1.573 / away 1.172. Trabzonspor carry an above-average attack strength of 1.422 — their λ of 2.77 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Amed bring a strong defensive rating of 1.238 — this is suppressing Trabzonspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Trabzonspor's defence rating of 0.711 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 42 Trabzonspor games / 8 Amed games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 78% | Draw 14% | Amed 9%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 1.28 | Draw 7.14 | Amed 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Trabzonspor (78%) — a 69pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.60. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.60 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Trabzonspor as the most likely outcome at 78% — clear model lean.
The Poisson model projects 3.60 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Trabzonspor 50% | Amed 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trabzonspor vs Amed | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Papara Park • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Feb 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trabzonspor 78% | Draw 14% | Amed 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 53% | xG Trabzonspor 2.77 / Amed 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Trabzonspor attack 1.422 / def 0.711 | Amed attack 0.995 / def 1.238 | league avg home 1.573 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (78%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.77
Trabzonspor xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Amed xG
53%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trabzonspor vs Amed kick off?
Trabzonspor vs Amed is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 7 February 2027 at Papara Park.
Where is Trabzonspor vs Amed being played?
The match is being played at Papara Park.
What competition is Trabzonspor vs Amed part of?
Trabzonspor vs Amed is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Trabzonspor vs Amed?
Our statistical model gives Trabzonspor a 78% chance of winning, Amed a 9% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Amed?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Trabzonspor and Amed will score (BTTS).
Will Trabzonspor vs Amed have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Amed?
Record (1 meetings): Trabzonspor 0W | Draws 0 | Amed 1W.
What form are Trabzonspor and Amed in?
Trabzonspor (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Amed (all comps): 5W-2D-1L in 8 | 2.12 PPG | GF 2.25 / GA 1.12 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Trabzonspor's attacking strength (1.42x league average) is weighed against Amed's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.77. The same calculation in reverse, Amed's attack versus Trabzonspor's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.5%. Close behind: 3-0 (9.7%), 2-1 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
78%
1.29
14%
7.30
9%
11.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.77
Trabzonspor xG
Total xG
3.60
0.83
Amed xG
1.29
78%
Home win
7.30
14%
Draw
11.72
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
6%
15.94
Win to Nil
34%
2.94
1%
186.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.6 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 10.5 | 8.7 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.7 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 6.7 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trabzonspor vs Amed?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Trabzonspor and Amed expected to score?
The model projects 2.77 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 0.83 for Amed, a combined total of 3.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Trabzonspor vs Amed?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 78%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 8 outings, Trabzonspor have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 5W 1D 2L record — W-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Amed's form line: 5W 2D 1L from 8 games, 2.12 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-W. The sample for Amed is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Trabzonspor on 2.00 PPG, Amed on 2.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Trabzonspor have posted 3.00 PPG from 3 outings (3W 0D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 2.00 PPG overall — Trabzonspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Amed have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.12 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Amed's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Trabzonspor are averaging 2.25 goals scored and 0.62 conceded per game recently; Amed are on 2.25 scored and 1.12 conceded. Amed's attacking output running into Trabzonspor's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Amed in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trabzonspor
Blended
Amed
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trabzonspor and Amed in coming into this match?
Trabzonspor have gone 5W 1D 2L in their last 8 games (2.00 PPG), while Amed have gone 5W 2D 1L in their last 8 (2.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trabzonspor at home or Amed away?
Trabzonspor's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trabzonspor at home: 3.00 PPG; Amed away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Trabzonspor or Amed been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Amed in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Trabzonspor and Amed runs to 1 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 31 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Trabzonspor
0
Draws
1
Amed
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Amed?
From 1 meetings on record, Trabzonspor have won 0, Amed have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Trabzonspor and Amed last play each other?
They last met on 31 August 2026, when Amed 2-1 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Trabzonspor and Amed?
Amed have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time.
Amed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Trabzonspor 0% BTTS, Amed 67%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Trabzonspor and 67% for Amed. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor keep a clean sheet in 100% of their matches; Amed in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trabzonspor home games / Amed away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trabzonspor play Amed?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Trabzonspor's recent matches and 67% of Amed's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Trabzonspor vs Amed usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Trabzonspor's matches and 67% of Amed's.
Do Trabzonspor and Amed tend to score early?
Trabzonspor have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Amed in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.