Trabzonspor 4-3 Alanyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Trabzonspor at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Trabzonspor vs Alanyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Trabzonspor and Alanyaspor meet at Papara Park in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 33. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 27 April 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Trabzonspor (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Trabzonspor have posted 7W 2D 1L at Papara Park — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Papara Park. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Trabzonspor are significantly better at Papara Park than their overall form suggests.
Alanyaspor have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 0D 7L. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Alanyaspor have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Trabzonspor's 1.60 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Alanyaspor's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Trabzonspor 3W, Alanyaspor 3W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.6 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2024, ended 1–2 with Alanyaspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Trabzonspor half-time and goal-timing data (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Alanyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trabzonspor 56% versus Alanyaspor 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 57% | Alanyaspor 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 1.82 xG and Alanyaspor 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 1.136 / defence 0.895 | Alanyaspor attack 0.769 / defence 1.000. League average goals — home 1.605 / away 1.176. Data: 68 Trabzonspor games / 68 Alanyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 61% | Draw 22% | Alanyaspor 16%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 1.64 | Draw 4.55 | Alanyaspor 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Trabzonspor (61%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Trabzonspor at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Trabzonspor 40% | Alanyaspor 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trabzonspor vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Papara Park • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Apr 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trabzonspor 61% | Draw 22% | Alanyaspor 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 47% | xG Trabzonspor 1.82 / Alanyaspor 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Trabzonspor attack 1.136 / def 0.895 | Alanyaspor attack 0.769 / def 1.000 | league avg home 1.605 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Trabzonspor xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Alanyaspor xG
47%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trabzonspor vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Trabzonspor vs Alanyaspor kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 27 April 2025 at Papara Park.
What was the final score in Trabzonspor vs Alanyaspor?
Trabzonspor 4 - 3 Alanyaspor.
Where is Trabzonspor vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Papara Park.
What competition is Trabzonspor vs Alanyaspor part of?
Trabzonspor vs Alanyaspor is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Trabzonspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Trabzonspor a 61% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 16% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Trabzonspor and Alanyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Trabzonspor vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Alanyaspor?
Record (7 meetings): Trabzonspor 3W | Draws 1 | Alanyaspor 3W.
What form are Trabzonspor and Alanyaspor in?
Trabzonspor (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Alanyaspor (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Trabzonspor's attack at 1.14x the league average against Alanyaspor's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.82 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Alanyaspor's attack (0.77x) against Trabzonspor's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (11.9%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
61%
1.63
22%
4.46
16%
6.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Trabzonspor xG
Total xG
2.63
0.81
Alanyaspor xG
1.63
61%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
6.18
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
16%
6.19
Win to Nil
27%
3.66
3%
38.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.1 | 10.6 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.3 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trabzonspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Trabzonspor and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 0.81 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Trabzonspor vs Alanyaspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Trabzonspor come into this having played 68 games, going 32W 13D 23L for 1.60 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-W.
On the other side, Alanyaspor sit at 1.26 PPG from 68 outings (21W 23D 24L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.60 PPG for Trabzonspor against 1.26 for Alanyaspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Trabzonspor's home form reads 21W 5D 8L across 34 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Alanyaspor have taken 0.97 points per game from 34 outings (7W 12D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Trabzonspor are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.26 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 68 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trabzonspor
Current Season
Alanyaspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trabzonspor and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Trabzonspor have gone 32W 13D 23L in their last 68 games (1.60 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 21W 23D 24L in their last 68 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trabzonspor at home or Alanyaspor away?
Trabzonspor's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trabzonspor at home: 2.00 PPG; Alanyaspor away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Trabzonspor or Alanyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Alanyaspor in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Alanyaspor won 5-0 on 9 Jan 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Trabzonspor have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Alanyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Trabzonspor
3
Draws
3
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Alanyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Trabzonspor have won 4, Alanyaspor have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Trabzonspor and Alanyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Alanyaspor 1-1 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Trabzonspor and Alanyaspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trabzonspor 56%, Alanyaspor 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Trabzonspor) and 41% (Alanyaspor).
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Alanyaspor in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trabzonspor home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trabzonspor play Alanyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Trabzonspor's recent matches and 50% of Alanyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Trabzonspor vs Alanyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Trabzonspor's recent games and 41% of Alanyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Trabzonspor and Alanyaspor tend to score early?
Trabzonspor have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Alanyaspor in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Trabzonspor edge out Alanyaspor 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat Alanyaspor 4-3 at Papara Park, Regular Season - 33, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 1.82 xG and Alanyaspor 0.81 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Trabzonspor beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Alanyaspor outscored their 0.81 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 1.14 / defence 0.90 against Alanyaspor attack 0.77 / defence 1.00, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 61% | Draw 22% | Alanyaspor 16%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 61%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 57%, Alanyaspor 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trabzonspor's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Alanyaspor's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Trabzonspor 1.60 PPG, Alanyaspor 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Trabzonspor win broke the near-deadlock. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.