Sivasspor 0-0 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Sivasspor at 41%, yet in-form Trabzonspor provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sivasspor vs Trabzonspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu plays host to Sivasspor versus Trabzonspor in Süper Lig (matchday 1). Kick-off: Sunday 11 August 2024 at 18:15 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Sivasspor have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Sivasspor have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Trabzonspor (all games): 7W 0D 3L across their last 10 — 2.10 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Trabzonspor away from home: 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Trabzonspor arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 6 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Sivasspor, 2 for Trabzonspor and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

The 6 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 12 Apr 2024, ended Sivasspor 1–0 Trabzonspor — a Sivasspor win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Sivasspor — key trading statistics (last 38 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).

Trabzonspor — key trading statistics (last 38 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sivasspor 60% versus Trabzonspor 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sivasspor 47% | Trabzonspor 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sivasspor 1.43 xG and Trabzonspor 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sivasspor attack 0.958 / defence 0.916 | Trabzonspor attack 1.059 / defence 0.952. League average goals — home 1.564 / away 1.244. Data: built from Sivasspor's last 38 games and Trabzonspor's last 38. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Sivasspor 41% | Draw 28% | Trabzonspor 31%. Fair-value odds: Sivasspor 2.45 | Draw 3.51 | Trabzonspor 3.26. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Sivasspor as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Trabzonspor (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sivasspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 51% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Sivasspor 50% (last 10 home games) | Trabzonspor 50% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (Sivasspor 38 games, Trabzonspor 38) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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