Sivasspor 0-1 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sivasspor at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sivasspor vs Konyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 1 as Sivasspor welcome Konyaspor to Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Monday 16 August 2021 at 17:15 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sivasspor 1.07 xG and Konyaspor 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sivasspor attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Konyaspor attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.091 / away 0.870. Data: 0 Sivasspor games / 0 Konyaspor games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Sivasspor 39% | Draw 34% | Konyaspor 27%. Fair-value odds: Sivasspor 2.56 | Draw 2.94 | Konyaspor 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sivasspor as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sivasspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.92 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sivasspor vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 16 Aug 2021, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sivasspor 39% | Draw 34% | Konyaspor 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 39% | xG Sivasspor 1.07 / Konyaspor 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Sivasspor attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Konyaspor attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.091 / away 0.870 • Poisson stance: Sivasspor (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Sivasspor xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Konyaspor xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sivasspor vs Konyaspor kick off?
Sivasspor vs Konyaspor kicked off at 17:15 on Monday 16 August 2021 at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Sivasspor vs Konyaspor?
Sivasspor 0 - 1 Konyaspor.
Where is Sivasspor vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What competition is Sivasspor vs Konyaspor part of?
Sivasspor vs Konyaspor is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Sivasspor vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Sivasspor a 39% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 27% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Sivasspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sivasspor vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Sivasspor and Konyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Sivasspor vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Konyaspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sivasspor and Konyaspor in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sivasspor's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Konyaspor's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.07. The same calculation in reverse, Konyaspor's attack versus Sivasspor's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sivasspor Win
39%
2.58
34%
2.96
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Sivasspor xG
Total xG
1.92
0.85
Konyaspor xG
2.58
39%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.58
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
34%
2.90
Win to Nil
17%
6.03
9%
10.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.7 | 12.5 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.7 | 13.3 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sivasspor vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are Sivasspor and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Sivasspor and 0.85 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Sivasspor vs Konyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sivasspor
Pre-Season
Konyaspor
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sivasspor and Konyaspor runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Sivasspor's record when hosting Konyaspor specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Sivasspor
3
Draws
1
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Konyaspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Sivasspor have won 4, Konyaspor have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sivasspor and Konyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2025, when Sivasspor 1-1 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Sivasspor and Konyaspor?
Sivasspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sivasspor home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Konyaspor defy the odds to beat Sivasspor 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Konyaspor beat Sivasspor 0-1 at Yeni Sivas 4 Eylül Stadyumu, Regular Season - 1, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sivasspor 1.07 xG and Konyaspor 0.85 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sivasspor fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sivasspor attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Konyaspor attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sivasspor 39% | Draw 34% | Konyaspor 27%, with Sivasspor to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Konyaspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.