Sivasspor 2-1 Kayserispor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sivasspor at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sivasspor vs Kayserispor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sivasspor host Kayserispor at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 25 May 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sivasspor stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu, Sivasspor have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Kayserispor have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Kayserispor's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
On current form, Sivasspor have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Sivasspor, 2 for Kayserispor and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Jan 2024, ended 3–1 with Sivasspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Sivasspor in-play and half-time data (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Kayserispor in-play and half-time data (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sivasspor 59% versus Kayserispor 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sivasspor 52% | Kayserispor 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sivasspor 1.45 xG and Kayserispor 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sivasspor attack 0.894 / defence 0.837 | Kayserispor attack 0.789 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.547 / away 1.247. Data: 73 Sivasspor games / 73 Kayserispor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sivasspor 50% | Draw 31% | Kayserispor 19%. Fair-value odds: Sivasspor 2.00 | Draw 3.23 | Kayserispor 5.26. Sivasspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sivasspor at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sivasspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sivasspor 50% | Kayserispor 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sivasspor vs Kayserispor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 25 May 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sivasspor 50% | Draw 31% | Kayserispor 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Sivasspor 1.45 / Kayserispor 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Sivasspor attack 0.894 / def 0.837 | Kayserispor attack 0.789 / def 1.046 | league avg home 1.547 / away 1.247 • Poisson stance: Sivasspor (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Sivasspor xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Kayserispor xG
45%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sivasspor vs Kayserispor kick off?
Sivasspor vs Kayserispor kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 25 May 2024 at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Sivasspor vs Kayserispor?
Sivasspor 2 - 1 Kayserispor.
Where is Sivasspor vs Kayserispor being played?
The match is being played at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What competition is Sivasspor vs Kayserispor part of?
Sivasspor vs Kayserispor is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Sivasspor vs Kayserispor?
Our statistical model gives Sivasspor a 50% chance of winning, Kayserispor a 19% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Sivasspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sivasspor vs Kayserispor?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Sivasspor and Kayserispor will score (BTTS).
Will Sivasspor vs Kayserispor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Kayserispor?
Record (5 meetings): Sivasspor 2W | Draws 1 | Kayserispor 2W.
What form are Sivasspor and Kayserispor in?
Sivasspor (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. Kayserispor (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sivasspor's attack at 0.89x the league average against Kayserispor's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kayserispor's attack versus Sivasspor's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.3%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sivasspor Win
50%
2.00
31%
3.26
19%
5.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Sivasspor xG
Total xG
2.27
0.82
Kayserispor xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
5.13
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
22%
4.57
5%
21.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 12.3 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 8.9 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sivasspor vs Kayserispor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Sivasspor and Kayserispor expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Sivasspor and 0.82 for Kayserispor, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Sivasspor vs Kayserispor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sivasspor's recent record stands at 24W 20D 29L from 73 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-W in the last five.
Kayserispor, meanwhile, have gone 26W 17D 30L across 73 games — 1.30 PPG, with L-W-D-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sivasspor on 1.26 PPG, Kayserispor on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sivasspor have managed 11W 15D 10L from 36 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kayserispor's away record stands at 11W 7D 18L across 36 trips, a 1.11 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Sivasspor are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Kayserispor are on 1.34 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 73 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sivasspor
Current Season
Kayserispor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sivasspor and Kayserispor in coming into this match?
Sivasspor have gone 24W 20D 29L in their last 73 games (1.26 PPG), while Kayserispor have gone 26W 17D 30L in their last 73 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sivasspor at home or Kayserispor away?
Sivasspor's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sivasspor at home: 1.33 PPG; Kayserispor away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Sivasspor go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Dec 2021, when Kayserispor won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sivasspor's record when hosting Kayserispor specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Sivasspor
1
Draws
2
Kayserispor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Kayserispor?
From 8 meetings on record, Sivasspor have won 5, Kayserispor have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sivasspor and Kayserispor last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2025, when Sivasspor 5-2 Kayserispor.
Who has won more matches between Sivasspor and Kayserispor?
Sivasspor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sivasspor 61%, Kayserispor 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Sivasspor) and 61% (Kayserispor).
On the defensive side: Sivasspor keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Kayserispor in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sivasspor home games / Kayserispor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sivasspor play Kayserispor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Sivasspor's games and 56% of Kayserispor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sivasspor vs Kayserispor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Sivasspor's recent games and 61% of Kayserispor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sivasspor and Kayserispor tend to score early?
Sivasspor have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Kayserispor in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sivasspor edge out Kayserispor 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sivasspor beat Kayserispor 2-1 at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu, Regular Season - 38, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sivasspor 1.45 xG and Kayserispor 0.82 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sivasspor attack 0.89 / defence 0.84 against Kayserispor attack 0.79 / defence 1.05, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sivasspor 50% | Draw 31% | Kayserispor 19%, with Sivasspor to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sivasspor 52%, Kayserispor 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sivasspor's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Kayserispor's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sivasspor 1.26 PPG, Kayserispor 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sivasspor win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.