Sivasspor 1-0 Fatih Karagümrük – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Sivasspor at 58% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sivasspor face Fatih Karagümrük.

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Match Analysis

Sivasspor host Fatih Karagümrük at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 31). Kick-off is Wednesday 3 April 2024 at 16:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Sivasspor — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Sivasspor have posted 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Fatih Karagümrük stand at 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Fatih Karagümrük's form when playing away from home: 0W 1D 9L across their last 10 road games (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sivasspor 1.30 PPG, Fatih Karagümrük 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Sivasspor have won 1, Fatih Karagümrük 3, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 11 Nov 2023, ended Sivasspor 0–3 Fatih Karagümrük — a Fatih Karagümrük win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Sivasspor in-play tendencies (last 66 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).

Fatih Karagümrük in-play tendencies (last 66 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sivasspor 61% versus Fatih Karagümrük 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sivasspor 53% | Fatih Karagümrük 58%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Sivasspor surrender their half-time lead 26% of the time, while Fatih Karagümrük have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 35% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sivasspor 1.73 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sivasspor attack 0.966 / defence 0.950 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.710 / defence 1.183. League average goals — home 1.515 / away 1.188. Fatih Karagümrük's attack rating of 0.710 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.80. Data: built from Sivasspor's last 66 games and Fatih Karagümrük's last 66.

Result probabilities: Sivasspor 58% | Draw 27% | Fatih Karagümrük 15%. Fair-value odds: Sivasspor 1.73 | Draw 3.73 | Fatih Karagümrük 6.53. The model has a clear lean to Sivasspor (58%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Sivasspor at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 54% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 53%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Sivasspor 60% (last 10 home games) | Fatih Karagümrük 50% (last 10 away games).

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