Samsunspor 3-0 Rizespor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Samsunspor at 61% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Samsunspor face Rizespor.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu plays host to Samsunspor versus Rizespor in Süper Lig (matchday 27). Kick-off: Friday 23 February 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Form
Samsunspor (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Samsunspor's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Samsunspor are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Rizespor have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Rizespor away from home: 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Samsunspor, 1.10 for Rizespor — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Rizespor edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 1 H2H match in our data, averaging 1.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 8 Oct 2023, ended Samsunspor 0–1 Rizespor — a Rizespor win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Samsunspor — key trading statistics (last 26 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Rizespor — key trading statistics (last 26 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Samsunspor 58% versus Rizespor 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Samsunspor 38% | Rizespor 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Samsunspor 1.81 xG and Rizespor 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Samsunspor attack 0.956 / defence 0.858 | Rizespor attack 0.696 / defence 1.302. League average goals — home 1.457 / away 1.201. Rizespor's defence rating of 1.302 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Samsunspor's projected output up. Rizespor's attack rating of 0.696 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.72. Data: built from Samsunspor's last 26 games and Rizespor's last 26.
Result probabilities: Samsunspor 61% | Draw 27% | Rizespor 12%. Fair-value odds: Samsunspor 1.64 | Draw 3.68 | Rizespor 8.53. The model has a clear lean to Samsunspor (61%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Samsunspor are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 54% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Samsunspor 50% (last 10 home games) | Rizespor 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Samsunspor vs Rizespor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 27 | Venue: Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 23 February 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Samsunspor 61% | Draw 27% | Rizespor 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Samsunspor 1.81 / Rizespor 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Samsunspor attack 0.956 / def 0.858 | Rizespor attack 0.696 / def 1.302 | league avg home 1.457 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Samsunspor (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Samsunspor xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Rizespor xG
45%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Samsunspor vs Rizespor FAQs
What time does Samsunspor vs Rizespor kick off?
Samsunspor vs Rizespor kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Friday 23 February 2024 at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Samsunspor vs Rizespor?
Samsunspor 3 - 0 Rizespor.
Where is Samsunspor vs Rizespor being played?
The match is being played at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu.
What competition is Samsunspor vs Rizespor part of?
Samsunspor vs Rizespor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 27) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Samsunspor vs Rizespor?
Our statistical model gives Samsunspor a 61% chance of winning, Rizespor a 12% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Samsunspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Samsunspor vs Rizespor?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Samsunspor and Rizespor will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Samsunspor vs Rizespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Samsunspor's attack at 0.96x the league average against Rizespor's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 1.81 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rizespor's attack (0.70x) against Samsunspor's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.72.
These ratings are built from Samsunspor's last 26 games and Rizespor's last 26 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (13.1%), 1-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Samsunspor Win
61%
1.64
27%
3.68
12%
8.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.1%
Home win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Samsunspor xG
Total xG
2.53
0.72
Rizespor xG
1.64
61%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
8.53
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
49%
2.05
16%
6.13
Win to Nil
30%
3.35
2%
52.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.4 | 10.4 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 13.1 | 9.4 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.9 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Samsunspor vs Rizespor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Samsunspor vs Rizespor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Samsunspor and Rizespor expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Samsunspor and 0.72 for Rizespor, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Samsunspor vs Rizespor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Samsunspor come into this having played 26 games, going 8W 6D 12L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-D.
On the other side, Rizespor sit at 1.38 PPG from 26 outings (10W 6D 10L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Samsunspor against 1.38 for Rizespor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Samsunspor's home form reads 7W 2D 3L across their last 12 home games, a 1.92 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.15 PPG overall — Samsunspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Rizespor have taken 0.75 points per game from their last 12 away games (2W 3D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.38 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rizespor's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Samsunspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Samsunspor are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Rizespor are on 1.08 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 26 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Samsunspor
Blended
Rizespor
Blended
Samsunspor (Home) vs Rizespor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Samsunspor
Blended
Rizespor
Blended
❓ Samsunspor vs Rizespor Form FAQs
What form are Samsunspor and Rizespor in coming into this match?
Samsunspor have gone 8W 6D 12L in their last 26 games (1.15 PPG), while Rizespor have gone 10W 6D 10L in their last 26 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Samsunspor at home or Rizespor away?
Samsunspor's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Samsunspor at home: 1.92 PPG; Rizespor away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Samsunspor or Rizespor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Samsunspor have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Rizespor in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 7 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was as recently as 22 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Samsunspor won Samsunspor 3-0 Rizespor on 23 Feb 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Samsunspor have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Rizespor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Samsunspor
1
Draws
3
Rizespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Samsunspor vs Rizespor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Rizespor?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Samsunspor have won 3, Rizespor have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Samsunspor and Rizespor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 August 2026: Rizespor 0-2 Samsunspor.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Samsunspor 50%, Rizespor 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Samsunspor) and 67% (Rizespor).
On the defensive side: Samsunspor keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Rizespor in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Samsunspor home games / Rizespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Samsunspor vs Rizespor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Samsunspor and Rizespor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Samsunspor's recent matches and 58% of Rizespor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Samsunspor and Rizespor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Samsunspor's recent games and 67% of Rizespor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Samsunspor and Rizespor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Samsunspor's recent matches and 83% of Rizespor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Samsunspor run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Rizespor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Samsunspor beat Rizespor 3-0 at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu, Regular Season - 27, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Samsunspor 1.81 xG and Rizespor 0.72 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Samsunspor beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Samsunspor attack 0.96 / defence 0.86 against Rizespor attack 0.70 / defence 1.30, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Samsunspor 61% | Draw 27% | Rizespor 12%, with Samsunspor to win its most likely call at 61%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Samsunspor 38%, Rizespor 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Samsunspor's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Rizespor's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Samsunspor 1.15 PPG, Rizespor 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Samsunspor win broke the near-deadlock. Samsunspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line. Rizespor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.