Samsunspor 2-1 Kayserispor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 42% as Samsunspor take on Kayserispor.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kayserispor make the trip to Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu to face Samsunspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Sunday 15 March 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Samsunspor (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Samsunspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Samsunspor's home record at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Samsunspor are significantly better at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Kayserispor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Kayserispor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kayserispor's away record: 1W 5D 4L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.70 PPG for Samsunspor against 0.70 for Kayserispor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Across 5 previous meetings, Samsunspor are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 1, with 0 draws in between.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2025, ended 3–1 with Samsunspor winning.
The historical record gives Samsunspor a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Samsunspor — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Kayserispor — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Samsunspor 48% versus Kayserispor 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Samsunspor 48% | Kayserispor 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Samsunspor 0.81 xG and Kayserispor 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Samsunspor attack 0.641 / defence 0.895 | Kayserispor attack 0.703 / defence 0.953. League average goals — home 1.324 / away 1.212. Samsunspor's attack strength of 0.641 is below the league average — the 0.81 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 61 Samsunspor games / 61 Kayserispor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Samsunspor 30% | Draw 42% | Kayserispor 28%. Fair-value odds: Samsunspor 3.33 | Draw 2.38 | Kayserispor 3.57. The draw (42%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 21% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.57. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 79% probability — total xG of 1.57 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Kayserispor's lower xG of 0.76 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 42% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 30% and away win at 28% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.57 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 21% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 33% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Samsunspor 30% | Kayserispor 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Samsunspor vs Kayserispor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Mar 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Samsunspor 30% | Draw 42% | Kayserispor 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 21% | BTTS 33% | xG Samsunspor 0.81 / Kayserispor 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Samsunspor attack 0.641 / def 0.895 | Kayserispor attack 0.703 / def 0.953 | league avg home 1.324 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: Draw (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Samsunspor xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Kayserispor xG
33%
BTTS
50%
Over 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Samsunspor vs Kayserispor kick off?
Samsunspor vs Kayserispor kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 15 March 2026 at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Samsunspor vs Kayserispor?
Samsunspor 2 - 1 Kayserispor.
Where is Samsunspor vs Kayserispor being played?
The match is being played at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu.
What competition is Samsunspor vs Kayserispor part of?
Samsunspor vs Kayserispor is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Samsunspor vs Kayserispor?
Our statistical model gives Samsunspor a 30% chance of winning, Kayserispor a 28% chance, and a 42% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Samsunspor vs Kayserispor?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Samsunspor and Kayserispor will score (BTTS).
Will Samsunspor vs Kayserispor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 21%.
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Kayserispor?
Record (5 meetings): Samsunspor 4W | Draws 0 | Kayserispor 1W.
What form are Samsunspor and Kayserispor in?
Samsunspor (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. Kayserispor (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Samsunspor's attack rating (0.64) and Kayserispor's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 0.81 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Kayserispor's attack (0.70x) against Samsunspor's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.76.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 22.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.2%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
30%
3.30
42%
2.38
28%
3.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
20.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.8%
Home win
0 – 1
15.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Samsunspor xG
Total xG
1.57
0.76
Kayserispor xG
3.30
30%
Home win
2.38
42%
Draw
3.63
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
47%
Over 1.5
2.13
53%
Under 1.5
1.89
21%
Over 2.5
4.76
79%
Under 2.5
1.27
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.05
67%
BTTS No
1.49
Clean Sheet
47%
2.14
44%
2.25
Win to Nil
14%
7.07
12%
8.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.8 | 15.8 | 6.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.8 | 12.8 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 6.8 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Samsunspor vs Kayserispor?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 22.4%.
How many goals are Samsunspor and Kayserispor expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Samsunspor and 0.76 for Kayserispor, a combined total of 1.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Samsunspor vs Kayserispor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Samsunspor come into this having played 61 games, going 26W 18D 17L for 1.57 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-L. The sample for Samsunspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Kayserispor sit at 1.07 PPG from 61 outings (14W 23D 24L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Kayserispor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Samsunspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Kayserispor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Samsunspor's home form reads 14W 8D 8L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Kayserispor have taken 0.87 points per game from 30 outings (4W 14D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Samsunspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Samsunspor are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Kayserispor are on 1.05 scored and 1.69 conceded.
Defensively: Samsunspor have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Samsunspor
Blended
Kayserispor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Samsunspor and Kayserispor in coming into this match?
Samsunspor have gone 26W 18D 17L in their last 61 games (1.57 PPG), while Kayserispor have gone 14W 23D 24L in their last 61 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Samsunspor at home or Kayserispor away?
Samsunspor's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Samsunspor at home: 1.67 PPG; Kayserispor away: 0.87 PPG.
Have Samsunspor or Kayserispor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Samsunspor have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Kayserispor in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Samsunspor have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Samsunspor have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Kayserispor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Samsunspor
0
Draws
1
Kayserispor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Kayserispor?
From 6 meetings on record, Samsunspor have won 5, Kayserispor have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Samsunspor and Kayserispor last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Samsunspor 2-1 Kayserispor.
Who has won more matches between Samsunspor and Kayserispor?
Samsunspor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Kayserispor see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Samsunspor 43%, Kayserispor 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Samsunspor) and 40% (Kayserispor).
On the defensive side: Samsunspor keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Samsunspor have failed to score in 33% of games; Kayserispor in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Samsunspor home games / Kayserispor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Samsunspor play Kayserispor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Samsunspor's recent matches and 53% of Kayserispor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Samsunspor vs Kayserispor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Samsunspor's recent games and 40% of Kayserispor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Samsunspor and Kayserispor tend to score early?
Samsunspor have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Kayserispor in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Samsunspor edge out Kayserispor 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Samsunspor beat Kayserispor 2-1 at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu, Regular Season - 26, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Samsunspor 0.81 xG and Kayserispor 0.76 xG, a combined 1.57. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Samsunspor beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Samsunspor attack 0.64 / defence 0.90 against Kayserispor attack 0.70 / defence 0.95, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Samsunspor 30% | Draw 42% | Kayserispor 28%, with the draw its most likely call at 42%. The actual Samsunspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 21%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 50% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Samsunspor 48%, Kayserispor 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Samsunspor's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Kayserispor's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Samsunspor arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.