Samsunspor 0-2 Fenerbahçe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fenerbahçe at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Samsunspor vs Fenerbahçe encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu plays host to Samsunspor versus Fenerbahçe in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Monday 21 August 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Samsunspor have collected 1.00 PPG across 1 Süper Lig outings this season: 0W 1D 0L. Last five: D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Samsunspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fenerbahçe's overall Süper Lig record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Fenerbahçe have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fenerbahçe's away record: 7W 2D 1L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Fenerbahçe are 1.30 PPG clear of Samsunspor in recent Süper Lig fixtures (2.30 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using overall form) — Samsunspor register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant games, Fenerbahçe in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Samsunspor 1.14 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Samsunspor attack 0.861 / defence 1.150 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.134 / defence 0.946. League average goals — home 1.398 / away 1.346. Data: 1 Samsunspor games / 37 Fenerbahçe games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Samsunspor 22% | Draw 29% | Fenerbahçe 49%. Fair-value odds: Samsunspor 4.55 | Draw 3.45 | Fenerbahçe 2.04. Fenerbahçe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fenerbahçe as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fenerbahçe if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Samsunspor vs Fenerbahçe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 21 Aug 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Samsunspor 22% | Draw 29% | Fenerbahçe 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Samsunspor 1.14 / Fenerbahçe 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: Samsunspor attack 0.861 / def 1.150 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.134 / def 0.946 | league avg home 1.398 / away 1.346 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Samsunspor xG
Expected Goals
1.76
Fenerbahçe xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Samsunspor vs Fenerbahçe kick off?
Samsunspor vs Fenerbahçe kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 21 August 2023 at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Samsunspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Samsunspor 0 - 2 Fenerbahçe.
Where is Samsunspor vs Fenerbahçe being played?
The match is being played at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu.
What competition is Samsunspor vs Fenerbahçe part of?
Samsunspor vs Fenerbahçe is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Samsunspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our statistical model gives Samsunspor a 22% chance of winning, Fenerbahçe a 49% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Samsunspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Samsunspor and Fenerbahçe will score (BTTS).
Will Samsunspor vs Fenerbahçe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Fenerbahçe?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Samsunspor and Fenerbahçe in?
Samsunspor (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D. Fenerbahçe (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Samsunspor's attack at 0.86x the league average against Fenerbahçe's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fenerbahçe's attack (1.13x) against Samsunspor's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.76.
The sample (1/37 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
22%
4.57
29%
3.44
49%
2.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Samsunspor xG
Total xG
2.89
1.76
Fenerbahçe xG
4.57
22%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.04
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
17%
5.79
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
4%
26.48
16%
6.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 9.7 | 8.5 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 11.1 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.3 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Samsunspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Samsunspor and Fenerbahçe expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Samsunspor and 1.76 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Samsunspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Samsunspor's recent record stands at 0W 1D 0L from 1 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Samsunspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Fenerbahçe, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 0L across 1 games — 3.00 PPG, with W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fenerbahçe by 2.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Samsunspor heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Samsunspor are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Fenerbahçe are on 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Fenerbahçe's attacking output running into Samsunspor's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Samsunspor have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Fenerbahçe in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Samsunspor
Early Season
Fenerbahçe
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Samsunspor and Fenerbahçe in coming into this match?
Samsunspor have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Fenerbahçe have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Samsunspor have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Fenerbahçe — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Samsunspor
4
Draws
2
Fenerbahçe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Fenerbahçe?
From 6 meetings on record, Samsunspor have won 0, Fenerbahçe have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Samsunspor and Fenerbahçe last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Fenerbahçe 3-2 Samsunspor.
Who has won more matches between Samsunspor and Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Samsunspor home games / Fenerbahçe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Samsunspor play Fenerbahçe?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Samsunspor's games and 100% of Fenerbahçe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Samsunspor vs Fenerbahçe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Samsunspor's recent games and 100% of Fenerbahçe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Samsunspor and Fenerbahçe tend to score early?
Samsunspor have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Fenerbahçe in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fenerbahçe cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Samsunspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Samsunspor 0-2 at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu, Regular Season - 2, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Samsunspor 1.14 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.76 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Samsunspor fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Samsunspor attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Fenerbahçe attack 1.13 / defence 0.95, drawn from 1/37 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Samsunspor 22% | Draw 29% | Fenerbahçe 49%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Samsunspor 0%, Fenerbahçe 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Samsunspor managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fenerbahçe conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.