Rizespor 1-1 Sivasspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rizespor at 57%, yet the head-to-head data favours Sivasspor — this Rizespor vs Sivasspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Sivasspor travel to Çaykur Didi Stadyumu to take on Rizespor in Süper Lig (matchday 30). The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 April 2025 at 12:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Rizespor stand at 4W 0D 6L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Rizespor at home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Rizespor are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Sivasspor have recorded 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.80. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sivasspor away from home: 1W 0D 9L from their last 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Rizespor 1.20 PPG, Sivasspor 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
Sivasspor have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the 5 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Rizespor.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 2 Nov 2024, ended Rizespor 1–2 Sivasspor — a Sivasspor win.
Sivasspor have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 5 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Profile
Rizespor in-play tendencies (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Sivasspor in-play tendencies (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 49% versus Sivasspor 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 58% | Sivasspor 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 2.00 xG and Sivasspor 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 0.984 / defence 1.128 | Sivasspor attack 0.830 / defence 1.244. League average goals — home 1.631 / away 1.217. Sivasspor's defence rating of 1.244 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Rizespor's projected output up. Data: built from Rizespor's last 65 games and Sivasspor's last 66.
Result probabilities: Rizespor 57% | Draw 22% | Sivasspor 21%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 1.76 | Draw 4.45 | Sivasspor 4.81. The model has a clear lean to Rizespor (57%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rizespor at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.13 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Rizespor's last 10 home games and Sivasspor's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Rizespor 70% (last 10 home games) | Sivasspor 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rizespor vs Sivasspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 30 | Venue: Çaykur Didi Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 5 April 2025 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rizespor 57% | Draw 22% | Sivasspor 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Rizespor 2.00 / Sivasspor 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Rizespor attack 0.984 / def 1.128 | Sivasspor attack 0.830 / def 1.244 | league avg home 1.631 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: Rizespor (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Rizespor xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Sivasspor xG
59%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Rizespor vs Sivasspor FAQs
What time does Rizespor vs Sivasspor kick off?
Rizespor vs Sivasspor kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Saturday 5 April 2025 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Rizespor vs Sivasspor?
Rizespor 1 - 1 Sivasspor.
Where is Rizespor vs Sivasspor being played?
The match is being played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What competition is Rizespor vs Sivasspor part of?
Rizespor vs Sivasspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 30) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Rizespor vs Sivasspor?
Our statistical model gives Rizespor a 57% chance of winning, Sivasspor a 21% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Rizespor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rizespor vs Sivasspor?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Rizespor and Sivasspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Rizespor vs Sivasspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Rizespor's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Sivasspor's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.00. The same calculation in reverse, Sivasspor's attack versus Rizespor's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Rizespor's last 65 games and Sivasspor's last 66 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rizespor Win
57%
1.76
22%
4.45
21%
4.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Rizespor xG
Total xG
3.13
1.14
Sivasspor xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.45
22%
Draw
4.81
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
14%
7.36
Win to Nil
18%
5.51
3%
35.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 9.9 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.9 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Rizespor vs Sivasspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Rizespor vs Sivasspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Rizespor and Sivasspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Rizespor and 1.14 for Sivasspor, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Rizespor vs Sivasspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 65 outings, Rizespor have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 24W 11D 30L record — L-W-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Sivasspor's form line: 22W 17D 26L from 65 games, 1.28 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rizespor on 1.28 PPG, Sivasspor on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Rizespor have posted 1.75 PPG from their last 32 home games (16W 8D 8L). That's noticeably better than their 1.28 PPG overall — Rizespor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Sivasspor have gone 9W 5D 18L from their last 32 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rizespor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Rizespor are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Sivasspor are on 1.29 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rizespor
Blended
Sivasspor
Current Season
Rizespor (Home) vs Sivasspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Rizespor
Blended
Sivasspor
Current Season
❓ Rizespor vs Sivasspor Form FAQs
What form are Rizespor and Sivasspor in coming into this match?
Rizespor have gone 24W 11D 30L in their last 65 games (1.28 PPG), while Sivasspor have gone 22W 17D 26L in their last 65 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rizespor at home or Sivasspor away?
Rizespor's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rizespor at home: 1.75 PPG; Sivasspor away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from December 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent in our data was on 5 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Rizespor's record when hosting Sivasspor specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Rizespor
3
Draws
3
Sivasspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Rizespor vs Sivasspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Sivasspor?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Rizespor have won 0, Sivasspor have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rizespor and Sivasspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 April 2025: Rizespor 1-1 Sivasspor.
Who has won more matches between Rizespor and Sivasspor?
Sivasspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rizespor 44%, Sivasspor 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Rizespor) and 59% (Sivasspor).
On the defensive side: Rizespor keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Rizespor have failed to score in 28% of games; Sivasspor in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rizespor home games / Sivasspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Rizespor vs Sivasspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Rizespor and Sivasspor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Rizespor's recent matches and 56% of Sivasspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Rizespor and Sivasspor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Rizespor's recent games and 59% of Sivasspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rizespor and Sivasspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Rizespor's recent matches and 78% of Sivasspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rizespor and Sivasspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rizespor and Sivasspor finished level at 1-1 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 30, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 2.00 xG and Sivasspor 1.14 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Rizespor fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 0.98 / defence 1.13 against Sivasspor attack 0.83 / defence 1.24, drawn from 65/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rizespor 57% | Draw 22% | Sivasspor 21%, with Rizespor to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 58%, Sivasspor 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rizespor's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Sivasspor's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rizespor 1.28 PPG, Sivasspor 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sivasspor (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.