Rizespor 2-0 Kocaelispor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Rizespor take on Kocaelispor.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Çaykur Didi Stadyumu plays host to Rizespor versus Kocaelispor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Friday 20 February 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Rizespor (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D D L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rizespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Rizespor have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Kocaelispor have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Kocaelispor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kocaelispor's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Kocaelispor are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Rizespor 0W, Kocaelispor 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Rizespor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Kocaelispor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 30% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 59% versus Kocaelispor 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 54% | Kocaelispor 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.19 xG and Kocaelispor 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 0.863 / defence 1.087 | Kocaelispor attack 0.735 / defence 1.003. League average goals — home 1.376 / away 1.334. Data: 58 Rizespor games / 22 Kocaelispor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rizespor 35% | Draw 37% | Kocaelispor 29%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 2.86 | Draw 2.70 | Kocaelispor 3.45. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 29% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rizespor 40% | Kocaelispor 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rizespor vs Kocaelispor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Çaykur Didi Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 20 Feb 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rizespor 35% | Draw 37% | Kocaelispor 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 50% | xG Rizespor 1.19 / Kocaelispor 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Rizespor attack 0.863 / def 1.087 | Kocaelispor attack 0.735 / def 1.003 | league avg home 1.376 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Rizespor xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Kocaelispor xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rizespor vs Kocaelispor kick off?
Rizespor vs Kocaelispor kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 20 February 2026 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Rizespor vs Kocaelispor?
Rizespor 2 - 0 Kocaelispor.
Where is Rizespor vs Kocaelispor being played?
The match is being played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What competition is Rizespor vs Kocaelispor part of?
Rizespor vs Kocaelispor is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Rizespor vs Kocaelispor?
Our statistical model gives Rizespor a 35% chance of winning, Kocaelispor a 29% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Rizespor vs Kocaelispor?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Rizespor and Kocaelispor will score (BTTS).
Will Rizespor vs Kocaelispor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Kocaelispor?
Record (1 meetings): Rizespor 0W | Draws 1 | Kocaelispor 0W.
What form are Rizespor and Kocaelispor in?
Rizespor (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-D-L-D. Kocaelispor (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Rizespor's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Kocaelispor's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. Flip it around — Kocaelispor's attack (0.73x) against Rizespor's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 58/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
35%
2.87
37%
2.73
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Rizespor xG
Total xG
2.26
1.07
Kocaelispor xG
2.87
35%
Home win
2.73
37%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
12%
8.34
9%
11.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 11.2 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.3 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rizespor vs Kocaelispor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Rizespor and Kocaelispor expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Rizespor and 1.07 for Kocaelispor, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Rizespor vs Kocaelispor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 22 outings, Rizespor have picked up 0.95 PPG on a 4W 9D 9L record — L-D-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Rizespor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kocaelispor's form line: 8W 6D 8L from 22 games, 1.36 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-W. The sample for Kocaelispor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Kocaelispor are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Rizespor.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Rizespor have posted 1.10 PPG from 10 outings (3W 2D 5L).
On the road, Kocaelispor have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.36 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kocaelispor's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rizespor are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Kocaelispor are on 0.95 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Kocaelispor in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rizespor
Blended
Kocaelispor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rizespor and Kocaelispor in coming into this match?
Rizespor have gone 4W 9D 9L in their last 22 games (0.95 PPG), while Kocaelispor have gone 8W 6D 8L in their last 22 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rizespor at home or Kocaelispor away?
Rizespor's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rizespor at home: 1.10 PPG; Kocaelispor away: 0.90 PPG.
Have Rizespor or Kocaelispor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rizespor have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Kocaelispor in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Rizespor
1
Draws
0
Kocaelispor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Kocaelispor?
From 2 meetings on record, Rizespor have won 1, Kocaelispor have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rizespor and Kocaelispor last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Rizespor 2-0 Kocaelispor.
Who has won more matches between Rizespor and Kocaelispor?
Rizespor have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rizespor see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Kocaelispor tend to start slowly — only 30% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rizespor 40%, Kocaelispor 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Rizespor) and 40% (Kocaelispor).
On the defensive side: Rizespor keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Rizespor have failed to score in 30% of games; Kocaelispor in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rizespor home games / Kocaelispor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rizespor play Kocaelispor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Rizespor's recent matches and 50% of Kocaelispor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rizespor vs Kocaelispor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Rizespor's recent games and 40% of Kocaelispor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rizespor and Kocaelispor tend to score early?
Rizespor have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Kocaelispor in 30% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rizespor cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Kocaelispor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rizespor beat Kocaelispor 2-0 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 23, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 1.19 xG and Kocaelispor 1.07 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Rizespor beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kocaelispor landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 0.86 / defence 1.09 against Kocaelispor attack 0.73 / defence 1.00, drawn from 58/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rizespor 35% | Draw 37% | Kocaelispor 29%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Rizespor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 54%, Kocaelispor 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rizespor's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Kocaelispor's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Kocaelispor arrived the stronger side — 1.36 PPG against 0.95. Form was overturned, with Rizespor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Rizespor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Kocaelispor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.