Rizespor 0-1 Kasımpaşa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kasımpaşa at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Rizespor face Kasımpaşa.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Rizespor host Kasımpaşa at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 4). Kick-off is Saturday 31 August 2024 at 18:15 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Rizespor stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, Rizespor have posted 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Rizespor are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Kasımpaşa — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Kasımpaşa's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Rizespor at 0.90 PPG versus Kasımpaşa's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Rizespor, 1 for Kasımpaşa and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 18 May 2024, ended Rizespor 0–0 Kasımpaşa — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Rizespor in-play tendencies (last 41 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
Kasımpaşa in-play tendencies (last 41 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 44% versus Kasımpaşa 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 56% | Kasımpaşa 66%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Rizespor surrender their half-time lead 27% of the time, while Kasımpaşa have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.27 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 0.847 / defence 1.192 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.951 / defence 0.974. League average goals — home 1.542 / away 1.325. Data: built from Rizespor's last 41 games and Kasımpaşa's last 41. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Rizespor 31% | Draw 28% | Kasımpaşa 41%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 3.26 | Draw 3.53 | Kasımpaşa 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kasımpaşa are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kasımpaşa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Rizespor's last 10 home games and Kasımpaşa's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Rizespor 40% (last 10 home games) | Kasımpaşa 70% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Rizespor 41 games, Kasımpaşa 41) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 4 | Venue: Çaykur Didi Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 31 August 2024 at 18:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rizespor 31% | Draw 28% | Kasımpaşa 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Rizespor 1.27 / Kasımpaşa 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Rizespor attack 0.847 / def 1.192 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.951 / def 0.974 | league avg home 1.542 / away 1.325 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Rizespor xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Kasımpaşa xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa FAQs
What time does Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa kicked off at 18:15 UK time on Saturday 31 August 2024 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa?
Rizespor 0 - 1 Kasımpaşa.
Where is Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa being played?
The match is being played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What competition is Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 4) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Rizespor a 31% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 41% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Rizespor and Kasımpaşa will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Rizespor's attack at 0.85x the league average against Kasımpaşa's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kasımpaşa's attack versus Rizespor's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Rizespor's last 41 games and Kasımpaşa's last 41, a sample that still includes some older results.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
31%
3.26
28%
3.53
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Rizespor xG
Total xG
2.77
1.50
Kasımpaşa xG
3.26
31%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
22%
4.49
28%
3.57
Win to Nil
7%
14.66
11%
8.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 9.4 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.9 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.6 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Rizespor and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Rizespor and 1.50 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 41 outings, Rizespor have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 15W 9D 17L record — D-L-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Kasımpaşa's form line: 16W 10D 15L from 41 games, 1.41 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rizespor on 1.32 PPG, Kasımpaşa on 1.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Rizespor have posted 1.90 PPG from their last 20 home games (11W 5D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.32 PPG overall — Rizespor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Kasımpaşa have gone 7W 5D 8L from their last 20 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rizespor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Rizespor are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 1.63 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa in 68%.
Last 41 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rizespor
Early Season
Kasımpaşa
Early Season
Rizespor (Home) vs Kasımpaşa (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Rizespor
Early Season
Kasımpaşa
Early Season
❓ Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa Form FAQs
What form are Rizespor and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Rizespor have gone 15W 9D 17L in their last 41 games (1.32 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 16W 10D 15L in their last 41 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rizespor at home or Kasımpaşa away?
Rizespor's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rizespor at home: 1.90 PPG; Kasımpaşa away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Rizespor or Kasımpaşa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rizespor have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Kasımpaşa in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 28 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 28 Feb 2026, when Rizespor won Kasımpaşa 0-3 Rizespor.
Rizespor's record when hosting Kasımpaşa specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Rizespor
2
Draws
4
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Kasımpaşa?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Rizespor have won 2, Kasımpaşa have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rizespor and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 February 2026: Kasımpaşa 0-3 Rizespor.
Who has won more matches between Rizespor and Kasımpaşa?
Kasımpaşa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rizespor 35%, Kasımpaşa 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Rizespor) and 60% (Kasımpaşa).
On the defensive side: Rizespor keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rizespor home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Rizespor and Kasımpaşa matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Rizespor's recent matches and 65% of Kasımpaşa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Rizespor and Kasımpaşa matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Rizespor's recent games and 60% of Kasımpaşa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rizespor and Kasımpaşa matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of Rizespor's recent matches and 70% of Kasımpaşa's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Kasımpaşa edge out Rizespor 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kasımpaşa beat Rizespor 0-1 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 4, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 1.27 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.50 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Rizespor fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 0.85 / defence 1.19 against Kasımpaşa attack 0.95 / defence 0.97, drawn from 41/41 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Rizespor 31% | Draw 28% | Kasımpaşa 41%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 56%, Kasımpaşa 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rizespor's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rizespor 1.32 PPG, Kasımpaşa 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kasımpaşa win broke the near-deadlock. Rizespor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.65 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.