Rizespor 2-0 Hatayspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rizespor at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rizespor vs Hatayspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Rizespor and Hatayspor meet at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 6 January 2024 at 10:30 UTC.
Current Form
Rizespor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D W D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Rizespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rizespor's home record at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu: 5W 2D 1L from 8 Süper Lig appearances (2.12 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.62 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 8 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu. Their home PPG of 2.12 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Rizespor are significantly better at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Hatayspor (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Hatayspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Hatayspor have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form favours the hosts. Rizespor's 1.50 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Hatayspor's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Rizespor, 1 for Hatayspor and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Jan 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Rizespor — key trading statistics (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Hatayspor — key trading statistics (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 0% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 53% versus Hatayspor 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 47% | Hatayspor 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.51 xG and Hatayspor 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 1.062 / defence 0.959 | Hatayspor attack 0.736 / defence 0.932. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.268. Data: 17 Rizespor games / 53 Hatayspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rizespor 50% | Draw 29% | Hatayspor 21%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 2.00 | Draw 3.45 | Hatayspor 4.76. Rizespor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rizespor at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rizespor if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Rizespor 38% | Hatayspor 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rizespor vs Hatayspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Çaykur Didi Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Jan 2024, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rizespor 50% | Draw 29% | Hatayspor 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Rizespor 1.51 / Hatayspor 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Rizespor attack 1.062 / def 0.959 | Hatayspor attack 0.736 / def 0.932 | league avg home 1.529 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: Rizespor (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Rizespor xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Hatayspor xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rizespor vs Hatayspor kick off?
Rizespor vs Hatayspor kicked off at 10:30 on Saturday 6 January 2024 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Rizespor vs Hatayspor?
Rizespor 2 - 0 Hatayspor.
Where is Rizespor vs Hatayspor being played?
The match is being played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What competition is Rizespor vs Hatayspor part of?
Rizespor vs Hatayspor is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Rizespor vs Hatayspor?
Our statistical model gives Rizespor a 50% chance of winning, Hatayspor a 21% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Rizespor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rizespor vs Hatayspor?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Rizespor and Hatayspor will score (BTTS).
Will Rizespor vs Hatayspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Hatayspor?
Record (2 meetings): Rizespor 0W | Draws 1 | Hatayspor 1W.
What form are Rizespor and Hatayspor in?
Rizespor (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-W-D. Hatayspor (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Rizespor's attack rating (1.06) and Hatayspor's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Hatayspor's attack (0.74x) against Rizespor's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 17/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rizespor Win
50%
1.99
29%
3.44
21%
4.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Rizespor xG
Total xG
2.41
0.90
Hatayspor xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
4.81
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
21%
4.88
5%
21.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.6 | 12.2 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.2 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rizespor vs Hatayspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Rizespor and Hatayspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Rizespor and 0.90 for Hatayspor, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Rizespor vs Hatayspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rizespor come into this having played 17 games, going 7W 5D 5L for 1.53 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-D. The sample for Rizespor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hatayspor sit at 1.12 PPG from 17 outings (4W 7D 6L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Hatayspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rizespor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Hatayspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Rizespor's home form reads 5W 2D 1L across 8 games on their own ground, a 2.12 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.53 PPG overall — Rizespor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Hatayspor have taken 0.50 points per game from 8 outings (0W 4D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.12 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hatayspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rizespor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rizespor are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Hatayspor are on 1.47 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hatayspor in 65%.
Last 17 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rizespor
Blended
Hatayspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rizespor and Hatayspor in coming into this match?
Rizespor have gone 7W 5D 5L in their last 17 games (1.53 PPG), while Hatayspor have gone 4W 7D 6L in their last 17 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rizespor at home or Hatayspor away?
Rizespor's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rizespor at home: 2.12 PPG; Hatayspor away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Rizespor have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rizespor won 5-2 on 31 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rizespor have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Hatayspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Rizespor
1
Draws
2
Hatayspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Hatayspor?
From 6 meetings on record, Rizespor have won 3, Hatayspor have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rizespor and Hatayspor last play each other?
They last met on 31 May 2025, when Rizespor 5-2 Hatayspor.
Who has won more matches between Rizespor and Hatayspor?
Rizespor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Hatayspor see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rizespor 38%, Hatayspor 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Rizespor and 38% for Hatayspor.
On the defensive side: Rizespor keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Hatayspor in 50%; Hatayspor in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rizespor home games / Hatayspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rizespor play Hatayspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Rizespor's recent matches and 38% of Hatayspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rizespor vs Hatayspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Rizespor's recent games and 38% of Hatayspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rizespor and Hatayspor tend to score early?
Rizespor have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Hatayspor in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rizespor cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Hatayspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rizespor beat Hatayspor 2-0 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 19, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 1.51 xG and Hatayspor 0.90 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Hatayspor landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 1.06 / defence 0.96 against Hatayspor attack 0.74 / defence 0.93, drawn from 17/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rizespor 50% | Draw 29% | Hatayspor 21%, with Rizespor to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 47%, Hatayspor 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rizespor's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Hatayspor's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Rizespor arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 1.12. Form held, and they took the win. Hatayspor (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.