Rizespor 0-0 Fatih Karagümrük – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fatih Karagümrük at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rizespor vs Fatih Karagümrük encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Fatih Karagümrük make the trip to Çaykur Didi Stadyumu to face Rizespor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Saturday 21 August 2021 at 17:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Rizespor have collected 0.00 PPG across 1 Süper Lig outings this season: 0W 0D 1L. Last five: L. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 3.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Rizespor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fatih Karagümrük (all games): 1W 0D 0L across 1 Süper Lig outings this term — 3.00 points per game. Last five: W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Fatih Karagümrük have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On a straight form reading, Fatih Karagümrük are the stronger side — 3.00 PPG clear of the hosts (3.00 vs 0.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 0.94 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 0.981 / defence 1.150 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.829 / away 1.365. Data: 1 Rizespor games / 1 Fatih Karagümrük games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Rizespor 23% | Draw 34% | Fatih Karagümrük 43%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 4.35 | Draw 2.94 | Fatih Karagümrük 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fatih Karagümrük at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fatih Karagümrük if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.27 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 4.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rizespor vs Fatih Karagümrük | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Çaykur Didi Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Aug 2021, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rizespor 23% | Draw 34% | Fatih Karagümrük 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG Rizespor 0.94 / Fatih Karagümrük 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Rizespor attack 0.981 / def 1.150 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.829 / away 1.365 • Poisson stance: Fatih Karagümrük (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Rizespor xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Fatih Karagümrük xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rizespor vs Fatih Karagümrük kick off?
Rizespor vs Fatih Karagümrük kicked off at 17:15 on Saturday 21 August 2021 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Rizespor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Rizespor 0 - 0 Fatih Karagümrük.
Where is Rizespor vs Fatih Karagümrük being played?
The match is being played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What competition is Rizespor vs Fatih Karagümrük part of?
Rizespor vs Fatih Karagümrük is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Rizespor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our statistical model gives Rizespor a 23% chance of winning, Fatih Karagümrük a 43% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Fatih Karagümrük the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rizespor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Rizespor and Fatih Karagümrük will score (BTTS).
Will Rizespor vs Fatih Karagümrük have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Fatih Karagümrük?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rizespor and Fatih Karagümrük in?
Rizespor (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 3.00 | L5 L. Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Rizespor's attack at 0.98x the league average against Fatih Karagümrük's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 0.94 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fatih Karagümrük's attack (0.85x) against Rizespor's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.1%), 0-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fatih Karagümrük Win
23%
4.27
34%
2.98
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Rizespor xG
Total xG
2.27
1.33
Fatih Karagümrük xG
4.27
23%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
6%
16.22
17%
5.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 13.8 | 9.2 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rizespor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Rizespor and Fatih Karagümrük expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Rizespor and 1.33 for Fatih Karagümrük, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Rizespor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Rizespor's recent record stands at 0W 0D 1L from 1 games, a 0.00 PPG return, with L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Rizespor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Fatih Karagümrük, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 0L across 1 games — 3.00 PPG, with W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fatih Karagümrük by 3.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Rizespor heading into this one.
Attack vs Defence
Rizespor are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game recently; Fatih Karagümrük are on 3.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rizespor have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Fatih Karagümrük in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rizespor
Early Season
Fatih Karagümrük
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rizespor and Fatih Karagümrük in coming into this match?
Rizespor have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Fatih Karagümrük have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fatih Karagümrük won 4-0 on 28 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rizespor have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Fatih Karagümrük — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Rizespor
1
Draws
3
Fatih Karagümrük
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Fatih Karagümrük?
From 6 meetings on record, Rizespor have won 2, Fatih Karagümrük have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rizespor and Fatih Karagümrük last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Fatih Karagümrük 2-1 Rizespor.
Who has won more matches between Rizespor and Fatih Karagümrük?
Fatih Karagümrük have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rizespor home games / Fatih Karagümrük away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rizespor play Fatih Karagümrük?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Rizespor's recent matches and 100% of Fatih Karagümrük's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rizespor vs Fatih Karagümrük usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Rizespor's matches and 100% of Fatih Karagümrük's.
Do Rizespor and Fatih Karagümrük tend to score early?
Rizespor have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Fatih Karagümrük in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Rizespor's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rizespor and Fatih Karagümrük finished level at 0-0 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 2, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 0.94 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.33 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Rizespor fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Fatih Karagümrük landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 0.98 / defence 1.15 against Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Rizespor 23% | Draw 34% | Fatih Karagümrük 43%, with Fatih Karagümrük to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 100%, Fatih Karagümrük 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Fatih Karagümrük arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Rizespor conceded 0 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line. Fatih Karagümrük managed 0 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.