Rizespor vs Eyüpspor – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Rizespor at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rizespor vs Eyüpspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Rizespor host Eyüpspor at in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 21 February 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rizespor stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Rizespor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at , Rizespor have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Eyüpspor — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Eyüpspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Eyüpspor have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Rizespor 1.70 PPG, Eyüpspor 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Rizespor, 1 for Eyüpspor and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2026, ended 0–4 with Eyüpspor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Rizespor in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Eyüpspor in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 54% versus Eyüpspor 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 57% | Eyüpspor 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.28 xG and Eyüpspor 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 0.926 / defence 1.089 | Eyüpspor attack 0.857 / defence 0.939. League average goals — home 1.470 / away 1.243. Data: 37 Rizespor games / 37 Eyüpspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rizespor 39% | Draw 27% | Eyüpspor 34%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | Eyüpspor 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Rizespor as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rizespor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Rizespor 50% | Eyüpspor 60%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rizespor vs Eyüpspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Feb 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rizespor 39% | Draw 27% | Eyüpspor 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Rizespor 1.28 / Eyüpspor 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Rizespor attack 0.926 / def 1.089 | Eyüpspor attack 0.857 / def 0.939 | league avg home 1.470 / away 1.243 • Poisson stance: Rizespor (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Rizespor xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Eyüpspor xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rizespor vs Eyüpspor kick off?
Rizespor vs Eyüpspor is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 21 February 2027.
What competition is Rizespor vs Eyüpspor part of?
Rizespor vs Eyüpspor is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Rizespor vs Eyüpspor?
Our statistical model gives Rizespor a 39% chance of winning, Eyüpspor a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Rizespor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rizespor vs Eyüpspor?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Rizespor and Eyüpspor will score (BTTS).
Will Rizespor vs Eyüpspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Eyüpspor?
Record (4 meetings): Rizespor 3W | Draws 0 | Eyüpspor 1W.
What form are Rizespor and Eyüpspor in?
Rizespor (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Eyüpspor (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Rizespor's attack rating (0.93) and Eyüpspor's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Eyüpspor's attack versus Rizespor's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rizespor Win
39%
2.56
27%
3.66
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Rizespor xG
Total xG
2.44
1.16
Eyüpspor xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
12%
8.16
9%
10.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 10.1 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.9 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.3 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rizespor vs Eyüpspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Rizespor and Eyüpspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Rizespor and 1.16 for Eyüpspor, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Rizespor vs Eyüpspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rizespor come into this having played 37 games, going 12W 11D 14L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Rizespor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Eyüpspor sit at 0.97 PPG from 37 outings (9W 9D 19L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Eyüpspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rizespor on 1.27 PPG, Eyüpspor on 0.97. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Rizespor's home form reads 8W 3D 7L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Eyüpspor have taken 0.78 points per game from 18 outings (3W 5D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rizespor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Rizespor are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Eyüpspor are on 0.95 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rizespor
Early Season
Eyüpspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rizespor and Eyüpspor in coming into this match?
Rizespor have gone 12W 11D 14L in their last 37 games (1.27 PPG), while Eyüpspor have gone 9W 9D 19L in their last 37 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rizespor at home or Eyüpspor away?
Rizespor's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rizespor at home: 1.50 PPG; Eyüpspor away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rizespor and Eyüpspor runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 May 2026, when Eyüpspor won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rizespor's record when hosting Eyüpspor specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Rizespor
0
Draws
1
Eyüpspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Eyüpspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Rizespor have won 3, Eyüpspor have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Rizespor and Eyüpspor last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Eyüpspor 4-0 Rizespor.
Who has won more matches between Rizespor and Eyüpspor?
Rizespor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Eyüpspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rizespor 44%, Eyüpspor 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Rizespor) and 44% (Eyüpspor).
On the defensive side: Rizespor keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Rizespor have failed to score in 28% of games; Eyüpspor in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rizespor home games / Eyüpspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rizespor play Eyüpspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Rizespor's recent matches and 44% of Eyüpspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rizespor vs Eyüpspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Rizespor's recent games and 44% of Eyüpspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rizespor and Eyüpspor tend to score early?
Rizespor have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Eyüpspor in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.