Rizespor 1-1 Beşiktaş – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rizespor at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rizespor vs Beşiktaş encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Rizespor and Beşiktaş meet at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Friday 3 January 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Rizespor (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Rizespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rizespor's home record at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Beşiktaş's overall Süper Lig record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beşiktaş's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Rizespor. A 0.60 PPG lead over Beşiktaş (1.60 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Across the last 4 meetings, Beşiktaş have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to Rizespor's 0, with 1 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2024, ended 2–3 with Beşiktaş winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Beşiktaş have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 4.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Rizespor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Beşiktaş goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 43% versus Beşiktaş 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 56% | Beşiktaş 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.27 xG and Beşiktaş 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 0.984 / defence 0.961 | Beşiktaş attack 0.898 / defence 0.788. League average goals — home 1.632 / away 1.192. Beşiktaş's defence strength of 0.788 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 54 Rizespor games / 54 Beşiktaş games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rizespor 39% | Draw 33% | Beşiktaş 28%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 2.56 | Draw 3.03 | Beşiktaş 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Beşiktaş lead the H2H ledger, but Rizespor carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Rizespor as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rizespor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Rizespor 50% | Beşiktaş 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rizespor vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Çaykur Didi Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 3 Jan 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rizespor 39% | Draw 33% | Beşiktaş 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG Rizespor 1.27 / Beşiktaş 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Rizespor attack 0.984 / def 0.961 | Beşiktaş attack 0.898 / def 0.788 | league avg home 1.632 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: Rizespor (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Rizespor xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Beşiktaş xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rizespor vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Rizespor vs Beşiktaş kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 3 January 2025 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Rizespor vs Beşiktaş?
Rizespor 1 - 1 Beşiktaş.
Where is Rizespor vs Beşiktaş being played?
The match is being played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What competition is Rizespor vs Beşiktaş part of?
Rizespor vs Beşiktaş is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Rizespor vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Rizespor a 39% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 28% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Rizespor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rizespor vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Rizespor and Beşiktaş will score (BTTS).
Will Rizespor vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Beşiktaş?
Record (4 meetings): Rizespor 0W | Draws 1 | Beşiktaş 3W.
What form are Rizespor and Beşiktaş in?
Rizespor (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. Beşiktaş (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Rizespor's attack at 0.98x the league average against Beşiktaş's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Beşiktaş's attack (0.90x) against Rizespor's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rizespor Win
39%
2.53
33%
3.05
28%
3.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Rizespor xG
Total xG
2.29
1.03
Beşiktaş xG
2.53
39%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
3.60
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
14%
7.09
8%
12.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 10.4 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.1 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.3 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rizespor vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Rizespor and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Rizespor and 1.03 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Rizespor vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Rizespor come into this having played 54 games, going 20W 10D 24L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-L. The sample for Rizespor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Beşiktaş sit at 1.52 PPG from 54 outings (23W 13D 18L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Beşiktaş is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Rizespor against 1.52 for Beşiktaş. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Rizespor's home form reads 14W 7D 6L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.81 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.30 PPG overall — Rizespor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Beşiktaş have taken 1.19 points per game from 27 outings (8W 8D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rizespor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Rizespor are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 1.43 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Defensively: Beşiktaş in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rizespor
Blended
Beşiktaş
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rizespor and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Rizespor have gone 20W 10D 24L in their last 54 games (1.30 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 23W 13D 18L in their last 54 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rizespor at home or Beşiktaş away?
Rizespor's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rizespor at home: 1.81 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Rizespor or Beşiktaş been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rizespor have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Beşiktaş in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 15 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Beşiktaş won 0-4 on 9 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rizespor have gone 0W 3D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Beşiktaş — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Rizespor
3
Draws
4
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Beşiktaş?
From 8 meetings on record, Rizespor have won 1, Beşiktaş have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rizespor and Beşiktaş last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when Rizespor 2-2 Beşiktaş.
Who has won more matches between Rizespor and Beşiktaş?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rizespor 37%, Beşiktaş 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Rizespor) and 48% (Beşiktaş).
On the defensive side: Rizespor keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Rizespor have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rizespor home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rizespor play Beşiktaş?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Rizespor's recent matches and 56% of Beşiktaş's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rizespor vs Beşiktaş usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Rizespor's recent games and 48% of Beşiktaş's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rizespor and Beşiktaş tend to score early?
Rizespor have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Beşiktaş in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rizespor and Beşiktaş share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 18, as Rizespor and Beşiktaş drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 1.27 xG and Beşiktaş 1.03 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 0.98 / defence 0.96 against Beşiktaş attack 0.90 / defence 0.79, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rizespor 39% | Draw 33% | Beşiktaş 28%, with Rizespor to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 56%, Beşiktaş 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rizespor's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Beşiktaş's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rizespor 1.30 PPG, Beşiktaş 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.