Rizespor 1-2 Altay – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Altay at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rizespor vs Altay encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 6 as Rizespor welcome Altay to Çaykur Didi Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 21 September 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Rizespor — All Games: 0W 1D 4L from 5 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 0.20 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings provides some defensive foundation. Rizespor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Altay stand at 3W 0D 2L from 5 Süper Lig matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Altay have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form points away from home here. Altay's 1.80 PPG return is 1.60 points per game ahead of Rizespor's 0.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
Rizespor in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 60% of games.
Altay in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 40% versus Altay 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Rizespor 60% | Altay 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 0.95 xG and Altay 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 0.633 / defence 1.127 | Altay attack 1.137 / defence 1.323. League average goals — home 1.137 / away 1.078. Rizespor's attack strength of 0.633 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Altay bring a strong defensive rating of 1.323 — this is suppressing Rizespor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Rizespor games / 5 Altay games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rizespor 26% | Draw 27% | Altay 47%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 3.85 | Draw 3.70 | Altay 2.13. Altay hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Altay as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Altay offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Rizespor 40% | Altay 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rizespor vs Altay | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Çaykur Didi Stadyumu • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 Sep 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rizespor 26% | Draw 27% | Altay 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Rizespor 0.95 / Altay 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Rizespor attack 0.633 / def 1.127 | Altay attack 1.137 / def 1.323 | league avg home 1.137 / away 1.078 • Poisson stance: Altay (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Rizespor xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Altay xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rizespor vs Altay kick off?
Rizespor vs Altay kicked off at 15:00 on Tuesday 21 September 2021 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Rizespor vs Altay?
Rizespor 1 - 2 Altay.
Where is Rizespor vs Altay being played?
The match is being played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What competition is Rizespor vs Altay part of?
Rizespor vs Altay is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Rizespor vs Altay?
Our statistical model gives Rizespor a 26% chance of winning, Altay a 47% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Altay the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rizespor vs Altay?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Rizespor and Altay will score (BTTS).
Will Rizespor vs Altay have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Altay?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rizespor and Altay in?
Rizespor (all comps): 0W-1D-4L in 5 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Altay (all comps): 3W-0D-2L in 5 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Rizespor's attack rating (0.63) and Altay's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 0.95 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Altay's attack versus Rizespor's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.7%), 0-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Altay Win
26%
3.86
27%
3.66
47%
2.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Rizespor xG
Total xG
2.33
1.38
Altay xG
3.86
26%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.14
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
25%
3.98
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
7%
15.36
18%
5.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 13.4 | 9.3 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.8 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.1 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rizespor vs Altay?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Rizespor and Altay expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Rizespor and 1.38 for Altay, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Rizespor vs Altay?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 5 outings, Rizespor have picked up 0.20 PPG on a 0W 1D 4L record — L-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Rizespor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Altay's form line: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games, 1.80 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Altay, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Altay are the form team by 1.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Rizespor.
Goals in Recent Form
Rizespor are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game recently; Altay are on 2.00 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Altay in 60%.
Last 5 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rizespor
Early Season
Altay
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rizespor and Altay in coming into this match?
Rizespor have gone 0W 1D 4L in their last 5 games (0.20 PPG), while Altay have gone 3W 0D 2L in their last 5 (1.80 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Rizespor
1
Draws
1
Altay
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Altay?
From 2 meetings on record, Rizespor have won 0, Altay have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rizespor and Altay last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2022, when Altay 0-0 Rizespor.
Who has won more matches between Rizespor and Altay?
Altay have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Altay are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rizespor 40%, Altay 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Rizespor and 80% for Altay. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rizespor have failed to score in 60% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rizespor home games / Altay away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rizespor play Altay?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Rizespor's recent matches and 60% of Altay's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rizespor vs Altay usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Rizespor's matches and 80% of Altay's.
Do Rizespor and Altay tend to score early?
Rizespor have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Altay in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Altay edge out Rizespor 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Altay beat Rizespor 1-2 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 6, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 0.95 xG and Altay 1.38 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 0.63 / defence 1.13 against Altay attack 1.14 / defence 1.32, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rizespor 26% | Draw 27% | Altay 47%, with Altay to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 60%, Altay 80%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rizespor's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Altay's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Altay arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 0.20. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.