Rizespor 0-0 Alanyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Alanyaspor at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rizespor vs Alanyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Alanyaspor travel to Çaykur Didi Stadyumu to take on Rizespor. The game is scheduled for Saturday 19 August 2023, 17:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Rizespor have gone 0W 0D 1L from 1 outings — a 0.00 PPG return. Last five: L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Rizespor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Alanyaspor stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Alanyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Alanyaspor away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Alanyaspor's 1.20 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Rizespor's 0.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Rizespor register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant matches, Alanyaspor in 60% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Rizespor, 1 for Alanyaspor and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Apr 2022, ended 1–2 with Alanyaspor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.57 xG and Alanyaspor 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 0.861 / defence 1.150 | Alanyaspor attack 1.086 / defence 1.197. League average goals — home 1.524 / away 1.409. Data: 1 Rizespor games / 37 Alanyaspor games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Rizespor 33% | Draw 25% | Alanyaspor 41%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 3.03 | Draw 4.00 | Alanyaspor 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.57 / 1.76) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Alanyaspor as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.33 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rizespor vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Çaykur Didi Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Aug 2023, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rizespor 33% | Draw 25% | Alanyaspor 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 67% | xG Rizespor 1.57 / Alanyaspor 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: Rizespor attack 0.861 / def 1.150 | Alanyaspor attack 1.086 / def 1.197 | league avg home 1.524 / away 1.409 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Rizespor xG
Expected Goals
1.76
Alanyaspor xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rizespor vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Rizespor vs Alanyaspor kicked off at 17:15 on Saturday 19 August 2023 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Rizespor vs Alanyaspor?
Rizespor 0 - 0 Alanyaspor.
Where is Rizespor vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What competition is Rizespor vs Alanyaspor part of?
Rizespor vs Alanyaspor is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Rizespor vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Rizespor a 33% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 41% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rizespor vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Rizespor and Alanyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Rizespor vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Alanyaspor?
Record (2 meetings): Rizespor 1W | Draws 0 | Alanyaspor 1W.
What form are Rizespor and Alanyaspor in?
Rizespor (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L. Alanyaspor (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Rizespor's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Alanyaspor's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. The same calculation in reverse, Alanyaspor's attack versus Rizespor's defence, projects 1.76 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/37 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
33%
3.00
25%
3.94
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Rizespor xG
Total xG
3.33
1.76
Alanyaspor xG
3.00
33%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.02
Clean Sheet
17%
5.81
21%
4.80
Win to Nil
6%
17.45
9%
11.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 6.3 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 9.9 | 8.7 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.8 | 6.8 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rizespor vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Rizespor and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Rizespor and 1.76 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Rizespor vs Alanyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rizespor come into this having played 1 games, going 0W 0D 1L for 0.00 points per game. Their last five reads L. It's still early in the season for Rizespor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Alanyaspor sit at 3.00 PPG from 1 outings (1W 0D 0L), a run that reads W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Alanyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Alanyaspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 3.00 PPG clear of Rizespor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Rizespor are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 2.00 scored and 0.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rizespor have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Alanyaspor in 0%.
Defensively: Alanyaspor in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rizespor
Early Season
Alanyaspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rizespor and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Rizespor have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
Have Rizespor or Alanyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rizespor have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Alanyaspor in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rizespor and Alanyaspor runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Rizespor's record when hosting Alanyaspor specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Rizespor
3
Draws
3
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Alanyaspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Rizespor have won 2, Alanyaspor have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rizespor and Alanyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Rizespor 1-1 Alanyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Rizespor and Alanyaspor?
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rizespor home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rizespor play Alanyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of Rizespor's recent matches and 0% of Alanyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rizespor vs Alanyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Rizespor's recent games and 0% of Alanyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rizespor and Alanyaspor tend to score early?
Rizespor have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Alanyaspor in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Rizespor's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 2, as Rizespor and Alanyaspor drew 0-0 in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 1.57 xG and Alanyaspor 1.76 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Rizespor fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Alanyaspor landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Alanyaspor attack 1.09 / defence 1.20, drawn from 1/37 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Rizespor 33% | Draw 25% | Alanyaspor 41%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 100%, Alanyaspor 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Alanyaspor arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Rizespor managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Alanyaspor managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.