Pendikspor 2-1 Adana Demirspor – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Pendikspor at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pendikspor vs Adana Demirspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Adana Demirspor make the trip to Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu to face Pendikspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Sunday 4 February 2024 at 10:30 UTC.

Form

Pendikspor (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D W W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pendikspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Pendikspor have posted 3W 3D 4L at Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

Adana Demirspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Adana Demirspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Adana Demirspor have posted 0W 6D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Pendikspor against 0.80 for Adana Demirspor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Pendikspor 0W, Adana Demirspor 1W, 0D.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2023, ended 0–3 with Adana Demirspor winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Pendikspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

Adana Demirspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pendikspor 70% and Adana Demirspor 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pendikspor 52% | Adana Demirspor 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Pendikspor 1.28 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pendikspor attack 0.979 / defence 1.164 | Adana Demirspor attack 0.796 / defence 0.888. League average goals — home 1.477 / away 1.191. Data: 23 Pendikspor games / 59 Adana Demirspor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Pendikspor 38% | Draw 33% | Adana Demirspor 29%. Fair-value odds: Pendikspor 2.63 | Draw 3.03 | Adana Demirspor 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Pendikspor at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pendikspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Pendikspor 50% | Adana Demirspor 60% BTTS from recent games.

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