Konyaspor 0-1 Samsunspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Konyaspor at 47%, yet in-form Samsunspor provide a compelling counter-argument — this Konyaspor vs Samsunspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu plays host to Konyaspor versus Samsunspor in Süper Lig (matchday 24). Kick-off: Sunday 16 February 2025 at 13:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Konyaspor have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Konyaspor have posted 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Samsunspor's record over their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Last five: W D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Samsunspor's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Samsunspor arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Konyaspor edge it 2 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 14 Sep 2024, ended Konyaspor 1–0 Samsunspor — a Konyaspor win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Konyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 60 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 56%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Samsunspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 60 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 27 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 57% versus Samsunspor 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 43% | Samsunspor 45%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Konyaspor surrender their half-time lead 56% of the time, while Samsunspor have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 44% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.63 xG and Samsunspor 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 1.098 / defence 1.152 | Samsunspor attack 0.832 / defence 0.902. League average goals — home 1.644 / away 1.211. Data: built from Konyaspor's last 60 games and Samsunspor's last 60.
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 47% | Draw 27% | Samsunspor 26%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 2.12 | Draw 3.74 | Samsunspor 3.83. Konyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Konyaspor are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Samsunspor (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Konyaspor if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Konyaspor's last 10 home games and Samsunspor's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Konyaspor 80% (last 10 home games) | Samsunspor 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Samsunspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 24 | Venue: Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 16 February 2025 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 47% | Draw 27% | Samsunspor 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Konyaspor 1.63 / Samsunspor 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 1.098 / def 1.152 | Samsunspor attack 0.832 / def 0.902 | league avg home 1.644 / away 1.211 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Samsunspor xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Konyaspor vs Samsunspor FAQs
What time does Konyaspor vs Samsunspor kick off?
Konyaspor vs Samsunspor kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Sunday 16 February 2025 at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Samsunspor?
Konyaspor 0 - 1 Samsunspor.
Where is Konyaspor vs Samsunspor being played?
The match is being played at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Samsunspor part of?
Konyaspor vs Samsunspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 24) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Samsunspor?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 47% chance of winning, Samsunspor a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Samsunspor?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Konyaspor and Samsunspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Konyaspor vs Samsunspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Konyaspor's attack rating (1.10) and Samsunspor's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.63 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Samsunspor's attack (0.83x) against Konyaspor's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from Konyaspor's last 60 games and Samsunspor's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
47%
2.12
27%
3.74
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.79
1.16
Samsunspor xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
20%
5.09
Win to Nil
15%
6.77
5%
19.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 11.6 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Konyaspor vs Samsunspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Samsunspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Samsunspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Konyaspor and 1.16 for Samsunspor, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Samsunspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Konyaspor come into this having played 60 games, going 15W 20D 25L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-L.
On the other side, Samsunspor sit at 1.43 PPG from 60 outings (24W 14D 22L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for Konyaspor against 1.43 for Samsunspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Konyaspor's home form reads 9W 10D 10L across their last 29 home games, a 1.28 PPG return.
Away from home, Samsunspor have taken 0.93 points per game from their last 29 away games (7W 6D 16L). That's a step down from their 1.43 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Samsunspor's recent record.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Konyaspor are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Samsunspor are on 1.30 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Blended
Samsunspor
Blended
Konyaspor (Home) vs Samsunspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Konyaspor
Blended
Samsunspor
Blended
❓ Konyaspor vs Samsunspor Form FAQs
What form are Konyaspor and Samsunspor in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 15W 20D 25L in their last 60 games (1.08 PPG), while Samsunspor have gone 24W 14D 22L in their last 60 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Samsunspor away?
Konyaspor's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 1.28 PPG; Samsunspor away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 7 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was as recently as 7 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Konyaspor won Konyaspor 3-0 Samsunspor on 12 May 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Konyaspor have gone 1W 0D 2L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Samsunspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Konyaspor
2
Draws
3
Samsunspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Konyaspor vs Samsunspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Samsunspor?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Konyaspor have won 2, Samsunspor have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Samsunspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 November 2026: Samsunspor 1-0 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Samsunspor?
Samsunspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 70% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 59%, Samsunspor 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Konyaspor) and 48% (Samsunspor).
On the defensive side: Konyaspor keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Samsunspor in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Samsunspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Konyaspor vs Samsunspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Konyaspor and Samsunspor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Konyaspor's recent matches and 45% of Samsunspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Konyaspor and Samsunspor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Konyaspor's recent games and 48% of Samsunspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Konyaspor and Samsunspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 66% of Konyaspor's recent matches and 66% of Samsunspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Samsunspor defy the odds to beat Konyaspor 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Samsunspor beat Konyaspor 0-1 at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu, Regular Season - 24, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.63 xG and Samsunspor 1.16 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Konyaspor fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 1.10 / defence 1.15 against Samsunspor attack 0.83 / defence 0.90, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 47% | Draw 27% | Samsunspor 26%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Samsunspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 43%, Samsunspor 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Samsunspor's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Konyaspor 1.08 PPG, Samsunspor 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Samsunspor win broke the near-deadlock. Konyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.34 scoring average — below par going forward. Samsunspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.