Konyaspor 3-0 Samsunspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Konyaspor at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Konyaspor vs Samsunspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu plays host to Konyaspor versus Samsunspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Konyaspor have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Konyaspor have posted 3W 3D 4L at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Samsunspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Samsunspor's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Konyaspor 0W, Samsunspor 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Dec 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Konyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games).
Samsunspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 49% versus Samsunspor 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Konyaspor 31% | Samsunspor 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.26 xG and Samsunspor 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.773 / defence 0.981 | Samsunspor attack 0.635 / defence 1.052. League average goals — home 1.553 / away 1.234. Konyaspor's attack strength of 0.773 is below the league average — the 1.26 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 71 Konyaspor games / 35 Samsunspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 46% | Draw 33% | Samsunspor 21%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 2.17 | Draw 3.03 | Samsunspor 4.76. Konyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Konyaspor are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Konyaspor if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.03 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Konyaspor 40% | Samsunspor 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Samsunspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 46% | Draw 33% | Samsunspor 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Konyaspor 1.26 / Samsunspor 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.773 / def 0.981 | Samsunspor attack 0.635 / def 1.052 | league avg home 1.553 / away 1.234 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Samsunspor xG
40%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs Samsunspor kick off?
Konyaspor vs Samsunspor kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 12 May 2024 at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Samsunspor?
Konyaspor 3 - 0 Samsunspor.
Where is Konyaspor vs Samsunspor being played?
The match is being played at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Samsunspor part of?
Konyaspor vs Samsunspor is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Samsunspor?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 46% chance of winning, Samsunspor a 21% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Samsunspor?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Konyaspor and Samsunspor will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs Samsunspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Samsunspor?
Record (1 meetings): Konyaspor 0W | Draws 1 | Samsunspor 0W.
What form are Konyaspor and Samsunspor in?
Konyaspor (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Samsunspor (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Konyaspor's attack rating (0.77) and Samsunspor's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Samsunspor's attack (0.64x) against Konyaspor's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from 71/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
46%
2.17
33%
3.01
21%
4.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.03
0.77
Samsunspor xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
4.84
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.47
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
21%
4.68
6%
17.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 10.1 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 12.7 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.5 | 8.0 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Samsunspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Samsunspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Konyaspor and 0.77 for Samsunspor, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Samsunspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Konyaspor come into this having played 35 games, going 8W 13D 14L for 1.06 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-D.
On the other side, Samsunspor sit at 1.20 PPG from 35 outings (11W 9D 15L), a run that reads D-D-D-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.06 PPG for Konyaspor against 1.20 for Samsunspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Konyaspor's home form reads 5W 5D 7L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.18 PPG return.
Away from home, Samsunspor have taken 0.47 points per game from 17 outings (1W 5D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.20 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Samsunspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Konyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Konyaspor are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Samsunspor are on 1.14 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 35 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Current Season
Samsunspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and Samsunspor in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 8W 13D 14L in their last 35 games (1.06 PPG), while Samsunspor have gone 11W 9D 15L in their last 35 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Samsunspor away?
Konyaspor's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 1.18 PPG; Samsunspor away: 0.47 PPG.
Have Konyaspor or Samsunspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Samsunspor in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Konyaspor won 3-0 on 12 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Konyaspor have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Samsunspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Konyaspor
2
Draws
2
Samsunspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Samsunspor?
From 6 meetings on record, Konyaspor have won 2, Samsunspor have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Samsunspor last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Samsunspor 2-2 Konyaspor.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Konyaspor see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 47%, Samsunspor 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 29% for Konyaspor and 35% for Samsunspor.
On the defensive side: Konyaspor keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Samsunspor in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Samsunspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play Samsunspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Konyaspor's recent matches and 59% of Samsunspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Konyaspor vs Samsunspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Konyaspor's recent games and 35% of Samsunspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Konyaspor and Samsunspor tend to score early?
Konyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Samsunspor in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Konyaspor run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Samsunspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Konyaspor beat Samsunspor 3-0 at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu, Regular Season - 36, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.26 xG and Samsunspor 0.77 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Konyaspor beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 0.77 / defence 0.98 against Samsunspor attack 0.64 / defence 1.05, drawn from 71/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 46% | Draw 33% | Samsunspor 21%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 31%, Samsunspor 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Samsunspor's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Konyaspor 1.06 PPG, Samsunspor 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Konyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Konyaspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. Samsunspor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.