Konyaspor 1-0 Ümraniyespor – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Konyaspor at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Konyaspor vs Ümraniyespor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Konyaspor and Ümraniyespor meet at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 2 October 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Konyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Konyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Konyaspor have posted 7W 2D 1L at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu.
Ümraniyespor have collected 0.29 PPG across 7 Süper Lig outings this season: 0W 2D 5L. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.71 per game is modest, conceding 1.43 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Ümraniyespor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ümraniyespor's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 1L across 3 road games this term (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Konyaspor's 1.80 PPG return is 1.51 points per game ahead of Ümraniyespor's 0.29 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading
Konyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 29% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 14% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games; they keep a clean sheet 86% of the time.
Ümraniyespor half-time and goal-timing data (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games; they fail to score in 57% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Konyaspor 14% | Ümraniyespor 43%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Konyaspor 29% | Ümraniyespor 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.40 xG and Ümraniyespor 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.963 / defence 0.646 | Ümraniyespor attack 0.933 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.411 / away 1.269. Konyaspor's defence rating of 0.646 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 45 Konyaspor games / 7 Ümraniyespor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 52% | Draw 28% | Ümraniyespor 21%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 1.92 | Draw 3.57 | Ümraniyespor 4.76. Konyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Konyaspor are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Konyaspor if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.16 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates are neutral: Konyaspor 40% | Ümraniyespor 67%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Ümraniyespor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Oct 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 52% | Draw 28% | Ümraniyespor 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 40% | xG Konyaspor 1.40 / Ümraniyespor 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.963 / def 0.646 | Ümraniyespor attack 0.933 / def 1.026 | league avg home 1.411 / away 1.269 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Ümraniyespor xG
40%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs Ümraniyespor kick off?
Konyaspor vs Ümraniyespor kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 2 October 2022 at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Ümraniyespor?
Konyaspor 1 - 0 Ümraniyespor.
Where is Konyaspor vs Ümraniyespor being played?
The match is being played at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Ümraniyespor part of?
Konyaspor vs Ümraniyespor is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Ümraniyespor?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 52% chance of winning, Ümraniyespor a 21% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Ümraniyespor?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Konyaspor and Ümraniyespor will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs Ümraniyespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Ümraniyespor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Konyaspor and Ümraniyespor in?
Konyaspor (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Ümraniyespor (all comps): 0W-2D-5L in 7 | 0.29 PPG | GF 0.71 / GA 1.43 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Konyaspor's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Ümraniyespor's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. Flip it around — Ümraniyespor's attack (0.93x) against Konyaspor's defence (0.65x) — and the away total comes out at 0.76.
These ratings are built from 45/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.9%), 0-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
52%
1.92
28%
3.63
21%
4.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.16
0.76
Ümraniyespor xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
4.87
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
47%
2.15
25%
4.04
Win to Nil
24%
4.13
5%
19.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 8.8 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.1 | 12.3 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 8.6 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Ümraniyespor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Ümraniyespor expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Konyaspor and 0.76 for Ümraniyespor, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Ümraniyespor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Konyaspor come into this having played 7 games, going 4W 2D 1L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Konyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Ümraniyespor sit at 0.29 PPG from 7 outings (0W 2D 5L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Ümraniyespor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Konyaspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.71 PPG clear of Ümraniyespor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Konyaspor's home form reads 2W 1D 0L across 3 games on their own ground, a 2.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Ümraniyespor have taken 0.67 points per game from 3 outings (0W 2D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Konyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Konyaspor are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 0.29 conceded per game recently; Ümraniyespor are on 0.71 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Konyaspor have seen both teams score in 14% of their recent games.
Defensively: Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 86% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Early Season
Ümraniyespor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and Ümraniyespor in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 4W 2D 1L in their last 7 games (2.00 PPG), while Ümraniyespor have gone 0W 2D 5L in their last 7 (0.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Ümraniyespor away?
Konyaspor's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 2.33 PPG; Ümraniyespor away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Konyaspor or Ümraniyespor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 86% of their recent games, Ümraniyespor in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Konyaspor
1
Draws
0
Ümraniyespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Ümraniyespor?
From 2 meetings on record, Konyaspor have won 1, Ümraniyespor have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Ümraniyespor last play each other?
They last met on 2 April 2023, when Ümraniyespor 2-2 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Ümraniyespor?
Konyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Konyaspor tend to start slowly — only 0% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Ümraniyespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (Konyaspor) and 67% (Ümraniyespor) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Konyaspor and 33% for Ümraniyespor.
On the defensive side: Konyaspor keep a clean sheet in 100% of their matches; Konyaspor have failed to score in 33% of games; Ümraniyespor in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Ümraniyespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play Ümraniyespor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Konyaspor's recent matches and 67% of Ümraniyespor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Konyaspor vs Ümraniyespor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Konyaspor's recent games and 33% of Ümraniyespor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Konyaspor and Ümraniyespor tend to score early?
Konyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Ümraniyespor in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Konyaspor edge out Ümraniyespor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Konyaspor beat Ümraniyespor 1-0 at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu, Regular Season - 8, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.40 xG and Ümraniyespor 0.76 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 0.96 / defence 0.65 against Ümraniyespor attack 0.93 / defence 1.03, drawn from 45/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 52% | Draw 28% | Ümraniyespor 21%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 29% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 29%, Ümraniyespor 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 29%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 14% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 86% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ümraniyespor's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 57% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Konyaspor arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.29. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Ümraniyespor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.