Konyaspor 1-0 Giresunspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Konyaspor at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Konyaspor vs Giresunspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Konyaspor host Giresunspor at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 4 February 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Konyaspor stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Konyaspor at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Giresunspor have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Giresunspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Giresunspor's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Konyaspor are in the better shape of the two on current Süper Lig data — 0.90 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Konyaspor have won 0, Giresunspor 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Konyaspor in-play tendencies (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Giresunspor in-play tendencies (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 46% versus Giresunspor 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Konyaspor 41% | Giresunspor 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 0.94 xG and Giresunspor 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.874 / defence 0.805 | Giresunspor attack 0.854 / defence 0.941. League average goals — home 1.150 / away 1.091. Data: 22 Konyaspor games / 23 Giresunspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 38% | Draw 36% | Giresunspor 27%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 2.63 | Draw 2.78 | Giresunspor 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.69. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.69 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Giresunspor's lower xG of 0.75 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Konyaspor are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Konyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.69 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 24% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 33%. Form rates corroborate: Konyaspor 30% | Giresunspor 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Giresunspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 4 Feb 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 38% | Draw 36% | Giresunspor 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 33% | xG Konyaspor 0.94 / Giresunspor 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.874 / def 0.805 | Giresunspor attack 0.854 / def 0.941 | league avg home 1.150 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Giresunspor xG
33%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs Giresunspor kick off?
Konyaspor vs Giresunspor kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 4 February 2022 at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Giresunspor?
Konyaspor 1 - 0 Giresunspor.
Where is Konyaspor vs Giresunspor being played?
The match is being played at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Giresunspor part of?
Konyaspor vs Giresunspor is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Giresunspor?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 38% chance of winning, Giresunspor a 27% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Giresunspor?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Konyaspor and Giresunspor will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs Giresunspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Giresunspor?
Record (1 meetings): Konyaspor 0W | Draws 1 | Giresunspor 0W.
What form are Konyaspor and Giresunspor in?
Konyaspor (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Giresunspor (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Konyaspor's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Giresunspor's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.94. The same calculation in reverse, Giresunspor's attack versus Konyaspor's defence, projects 0.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 20.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.7%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
38%
2.66
36%
2.79
27%
3.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
17.4%
Home win
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
1.69
0.75
Giresunspor xG
2.66
38%
Home win
2.79
36%
Draw
3.75
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.01
67%
BTTS No
1.50
Clean Sheet
47%
2.12
39%
2.57
Win to Nil
18%
5.64
10%
9.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.4 | 13.8 | 5.2 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.4 | 13.0 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.2 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Giresunspor?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.1%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Giresunspor expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Konyaspor and 0.75 for Giresunspor, a combined total of 1.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Giresunspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Konyaspor's recent record stands at 13W 6D 3L from 22 games, a 2.05 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Giresunspor, meanwhile, have gone 7W 5D 10L across 22 games — 1.18 PPG, with L-W-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Giresunspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Konyaspor by 0.87 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Giresunspor heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Konyaspor have managed 7W 3D 1L from 11 games — 2.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Giresunspor's away record stands at 3W 3D 5L across 11 trips, a 1.09 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Konyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Konyaspor are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 0.73 conceded per game recently; Giresunspor are on 1.00 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Blended
Giresunspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and Giresunspor in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 13W 6D 3L in their last 22 games (2.05 PPG), while Giresunspor have gone 7W 5D 10L in their last 22 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Giresunspor away?
Konyaspor's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 2.18 PPG; Giresunspor away: 1.09 PPG.
Have Konyaspor or Giresunspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Giresunspor in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Konyaspor's record when hosting Giresunspor specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Konyaspor
2
Draws
0
Giresunspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Giresunspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Konyaspor have won 2, Giresunspor have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Giresunspor last play each other?
They last met on 5 March 2023, when Konyaspor 0-0 Giresunspor.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Giresunspor?
Konyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Konyaspor see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Giresunspor see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 36%, Giresunspor 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 36% for Konyaspor and 27% for Giresunspor.
On the defensive side: Konyaspor keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Giresunspor in 36%; Giresunspor in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Giresunspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play Giresunspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Konyaspor's recent matches and 36% of Giresunspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Konyaspor vs Giresunspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Konyaspor's recent games and 27% of Giresunspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Konyaspor edge out Giresunspor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Konyaspor beat Giresunspor 1-0 at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu, Regular Season - 24, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 0.94 xG and Giresunspor 0.75 xG, a combined 1.69. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 0.87 / defence 0.81 against Giresunspor attack 0.85 / defence 0.94, drawn from 22/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 38% | Draw 36% | Giresunspor 27%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 52% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 41%, Giresunspor 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Giresunspor's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Konyaspor arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.18. That form edge translated into the three points. Giresunspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.