Konyaspor 1-1 Fatih Karagümrük – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fatih Karagümrük at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Konyaspor face Fatih Karagümrük.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Konyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük meet at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 11). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 5 November 2023 at 13:00 UK time.
Current Form
Konyaspor's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Konyaspor's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Fatih Karagümrük have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Fatih Karagümrük's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Konyaspor, 1 for Fatih Karagümrük and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 3 Jun 2023, ended Konyaspor 1–1 Fatih Karagümrük — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Konyaspor — key trading statistics (last 46 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 56%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Fatih Karagümrük — key trading statistics (last 46 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 54% versus Fatih Karagümrük 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 50% | Fatih Karagümrük 61%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Konyaspor surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while Fatih Karagümrük have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 40% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Fatih Karagümrük surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while Konyaspor recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 56% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.11 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.774 / defence 1.109 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.949 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.464 / away 1.212. Konyaspor's attack rating of 0.774 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.11. Data: built from Konyaspor's last 46 games and Fatih Karagümrük's last 46.
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 29% | Draw 33% | Fatih Karagümrük 37%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 3.40 | Draw 3.02 | Fatih Karagümrük 2.67. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fatih Karagümrük are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fatih Karagümrük if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Konyaspor 80% (last 10 home games) | Fatih Karagümrük 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 11 | Venue: Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 5 November 2023 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 29% | Draw 33% | Fatih Karagümrük 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Konyaspor 1.11 / Fatih Karagümrük 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.774 / def 1.109 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.949 / def 0.977 | league avg home 1.464 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: Fatih Karagümrük (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Fatih Karagümrük xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Konyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük FAQs
What time does Konyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük kick off?
Konyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Sunday 5 November 2023 at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Konyaspor 1 - 1 Fatih Karagümrük.
Where is Konyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük being played?
The match is being played at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük part of?
Konyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 11) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 29% chance of winning, Fatih Karagümrük a 37% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Fatih Karagümrük the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Konyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Konyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Konyaspor's attack rating (0.77) and Fatih Karagümrük's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fatih Karagümrük's attack (0.95x) against Konyaspor's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from Konyaspor's last 46 games and Fatih Karagümrük's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fatih Karagümrük Win
29%
3.40
33%
3.02
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.38
1.27
Fatih Karagümrük xG
3.40
29%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
8%
12.18
12%
8.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 11.8 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.0 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.2 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Konyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Konyaspor and 1.27 for Fatih Karagümrük, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 46 outings, Konyaspor have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 14W 18D 14L record — D-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Fatih Karagümrük's form line: 15W 16D 15L from 46 games, 1.33 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Konyaspor against 1.33 for Fatih Karagümrük. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Konyaspor have posted 1.18 PPG from their last 22 home games (6W 8D 8L).
On the road, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 7W 8D 7L from their last 22 away games — 1.32 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Konyaspor are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Fatih Karagümrük are on 1.83 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fatih Karagümrük in 63%.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Blended
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
Konyaspor (Home) vs Fatih Karagümrük (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Konyaspor
Blended
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
❓ Konyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük Form FAQs
What form are Konyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 14W 18D 14L in their last 46 games (1.30 PPG), while Fatih Karagümrük have gone 15W 16D 15L in their last 46 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Fatih Karagümrük away?
Fatih Karagümrük's away record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 1.18 PPG; Fatih Karagümrük away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Konyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük, the earliest from December 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 12 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Konyaspor won Fatih Karagümrük 1-4 Konyaspor on 11 Dec 2021, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Konyaspor have gone 1W 2D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Fatih Karagümrük — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Konyaspor
4
Draws
2
Fatih Karagümrük
Recent Meetings
❓ Konyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Konyaspor have won 2, Fatih Karagümrük have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 April 2026: Konyaspor 3-0 Fatih Karagümrük.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Konyaspor see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 59%, Fatih Karagümrük 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Konyaspor) and 64% (Fatih Karagümrük).
On the defensive side: Fatih Karagümrük in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Fatih Karagümrük away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Konyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Konyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Konyaspor's games and 64% of Fatih Karagümrük's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Konyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Konyaspor's recent games and 64% of Fatih Karagümrük's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Konyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 54% of Konyaspor's recent matches and 90% of Fatih Karagümrük's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Konyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Konyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük finished level at 1-1 at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu, Regular Season - 11, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.11 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.27 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 0.77 / defence 1.11 against Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.95 / defence 0.98, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 29% | Draw 33% | Fatih Karagümrük 37%, with Fatih Karagümrük to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 50%, Fatih Karagümrük 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Konyaspor 1.30 PPG, Fatih Karagümrük 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.