Konyaspor 2-1 Eyüpspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Konyaspor at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Konyaspor vs Eyüpspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 8 as Konyaspor welcome Eyüpspor to Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Sunday 6 October 2024 at 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Konyaspor have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Konyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Konyaspor have posted 2W 4D 4L at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Eyüpspor stand at 3W 3D 1L from 7 Süper Lig matches — 1.71 PPG. Last five: W D D L W. They are scoring at 1.71 per game and conceding 1.14. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 71% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Eyüpspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Eyüpspor have posted 1W 2D 1L from 4 away outings — 1.25 PPG. Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Eyüpspor's 1.71 PPG return is 0.51 points per game ahead of Konyaspor's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
Konyaspor in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Eyüpspor in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Konyaspor 57% and Eyüpspor 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 57% | Eyüpspor 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.13 xG and Eyüpspor 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.727 / defence 0.800 | Eyüpspor attack 0.895 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.312. Konyaspor's attack strength of 0.727 is below the league average — the 1.13 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 45 Konyaspor games / 7 Eyüpspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 38% | Draw 34% | Eyüpspor 28%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 2.63 | Draw 2.94 | Eyüpspor 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Konyaspor at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Eyüpspor (1.71 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Konyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.07 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Konyaspor 40% | Eyüpspor 75%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Eyüpspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Oct 2024, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 38% | Draw 34% | Eyüpspor 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 43% | xG Konyaspor 1.13 / Eyüpspor 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.727 / def 0.800 | Eyüpspor attack 0.895 / def 1.060 | league avg home 1.472 / away 1.312 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Eyüpspor xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs Eyüpspor kick off?
Konyaspor vs Eyüpspor kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 6 October 2024 at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Eyüpspor?
Konyaspor 2 - 1 Eyüpspor.
Where is Konyaspor vs Eyüpspor being played?
The match is being played at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Eyüpspor part of?
Konyaspor vs Eyüpspor is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Eyüpspor?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 38% chance of winning, Eyüpspor a 28% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Eyüpspor?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Konyaspor and Eyüpspor will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs Eyüpspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Eyüpspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Konyaspor and Eyüpspor in?
Konyaspor (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. Eyüpspor (all comps): 3W-3D-1L in 7 | 1.71 PPG | GF 1.71 / GA 1.14 | L5 W-D-D-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Konyaspor vs Eyüpspor?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Konyaspor's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against Eyüpspor's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.13. The same calculation in reverse, Eyüpspor's attack versus Konyaspor's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
38%
2.62
34%
2.96
28%
3.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.07
0.94
Eyüpspor xG
2.62
38%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
3.56
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
32%
3.11
Win to Nil
15%
6.71
9%
11.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 11.8 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.4 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Eyüpspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Eyüpspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Konyaspor and 0.94 for Eyüpspor, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Eyüpspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Konyaspor's recent record stands at 2W 2D 3L from 7 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with L-D-W-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Konyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Eyüpspor, meanwhile, have gone 3W 3D 1L across 7 games — 1.71 PPG, with W-D-D-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Eyüpspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Eyüpspor by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Konyaspor heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Konyaspor have managed 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — 0.67 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.14 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Eyüpspor's away record stands at 1W 1D 1L across 3 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Eyüpspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Konyaspor are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Eyüpspor are on 1.71 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eyüpspor in 71%.
Defensively: Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Early Season
Eyüpspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and Eyüpspor in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 2W 2D 3L in their last 7 games (1.14 PPG), while Eyüpspor have gone 3W 3D 1L in their last 7 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Eyüpspor away?
Eyüpspor's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 0.67 PPG; Eyüpspor away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Konyaspor or Eyüpspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Eyüpspor in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Konyaspor and Eyüpspor runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 19 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Aug 2025, when Konyaspor won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Konyaspor's record when hosting Eyüpspor specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Konyaspor
1
Draws
1
Eyüpspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Eyüpspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Konyaspor have won 2, Eyüpspor have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Eyüpspor last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2026, when Konyaspor 1-1 Eyüpspor.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Eyüpspor?
Konyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Konyaspor see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Eyüpspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 33%, Eyüpspor 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Konyaspor) and 67% (Eyüpspor).
On the defensive side: Konyaspor keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Eyüpspor in 33%; Konyaspor have failed to score in 67% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Eyüpspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play Eyüpspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Konyaspor's recent matches and 67% of Eyüpspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Konyaspor vs Eyüpspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Konyaspor's recent games and 67% of Eyüpspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Konyaspor and Eyüpspor tend to score early?
Konyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Eyüpspor in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Konyaspor edge out Eyüpspor 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Konyaspor beat Eyüpspor 2-1 at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu, Regular Season - 8, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.13 xG and Eyüpspor 0.94 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Konyaspor beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 0.73 / defence 0.80 against Eyüpspor attack 0.90 / defence 1.06, drawn from 45/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 38% | Draw 34% | Eyüpspor 28%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 57%, Eyüpspor 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Eyüpspor's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Eyüpspor arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.14. Form was overturned, with Konyaspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Konyaspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.33 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.