Konyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Konyaspor at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Konyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Erzurumspor FK make the trip to Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium to face Konyaspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Sunday 14 February 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Konyaspor (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium, Konyaspor have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Konyaspor are significantly better at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Erzurumspor FK's overall Süper Lig record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W D W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Erzurumspor FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Erzurumspor FK have posted 1W 2D 2L from 5 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Erzurumspor FK are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Konyaspor 0W, Erzurumspor FK 1W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Sep 2026, ended 0–1 with Erzurumspor FK winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Konyaspor — key trading statistics (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 60% of games.
Erzurumspor FK — key trading statistics (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 20% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Konyaspor 20% | Erzurumspor FK 30%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Konyaspor 30% | Erzurumspor FK 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.13 xG and Erzurumspor FK 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.689 / defence 0.992 | Erzurumspor FK attack 0.817 / defence 1.031. League average goals — home 1.587 / away 1.253. Konyaspor's attack strength of 0.689 is below the league average — the 1.13 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 44 Konyaspor games / 10 Erzurumspor FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 38% | Draw 30% | Erzurumspor FK 32%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 2.63 | Draw 3.33 | Erzurumspor FK 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Konyaspor as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Erzurumspor FK (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Konyaspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.14 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Konyaspor 20% | Erzurumspor FK 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Feb 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 38% | Draw 30% | Erzurumspor FK 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Konyaspor 1.13 / Erzurumspor FK 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.689 / def 0.992 | Erzurumspor FK attack 0.817 / def 1.031 | league avg home 1.587 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Erzurumspor FK xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK kick off?
Konyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 14 February 2027 at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium.
Where is Konyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK being played?
The match is being played at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK part of?
Konyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 38% chance of winning, Erzurumspor FK a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Konyaspor and Erzurumspor FK will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Erzurumspor FK?
Record (1 meetings): Konyaspor 0W | Draws 0 | Erzurumspor FK 1W.
What form are Konyaspor and Erzurumspor FK in?
Konyaspor (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. Erzurumspor FK (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Konyaspor's attack rating (0.69) and Erzurumspor FK's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Erzurumspor FK's attack (0.82x) against Konyaspor's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 44/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
38%
2.63
30%
3.39
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.14
1.02
Erzurumspor FK xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
32%
3.09
Win to Nil
14%
7.25
10%
9.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 11.9 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.4 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Erzurumspor FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Konyaspor and 1.02 for Erzurumspor FK, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Konyaspor come into this having played 10 games, going 2W 2D 6L for 0.80 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-L. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Erzurumspor FK sit at 1.40 PPG from 10 outings (4W 2D 4L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Erzurumspor FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Erzurumspor FK carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of Konyaspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Konyaspor's home form reads 2W 1D 2L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.80 PPG overall — Konyaspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Erzurumspor FK have taken 1.00 points per game from 5 outings (1W 2D 2L).
Attack vs Defence
Konyaspor are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Erzurumspor FK are on 0.90 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Konyaspor have seen both teams score in 20% of their recent games; Erzurumspor FK in 30%.
Defensively: Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Erzurumspor FK in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Blended
Erzurumspor FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and Erzurumspor FK in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 games (0.80 PPG), while Erzurumspor FK have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Erzurumspor FK away?
Konyaspor's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 1.40 PPG; Erzurumspor FK away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Konyaspor or Erzurumspor FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Erzurumspor FK in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 1 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Konyaspor
0
Draws
1
Erzurumspor FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Erzurumspor FK?
From 1 meetings on record, Konyaspor have won 0, Erzurumspor FK have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Erzurumspor FK last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Erzurumspor FK 1-0 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Erzurumspor FK?
Erzurumspor FK have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Erzurumspor FK tend to start slowly — only 20% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 20% (Konyaspor) and 40% (Erzurumspor FK) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Konyaspor) and 60% (Erzurumspor FK).
On the defensive side: Konyaspor keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Konyaspor have failed to score in 40% of games; Erzurumspor FK in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Erzurumspor FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play Erzurumspor FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Konyaspor's recent matches and 40% of Erzurumspor FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Konyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Konyaspor's recent games and 60% of Erzurumspor FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Konyaspor and Erzurumspor FK tend to score early?
Konyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Erzurumspor FK in 20% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.