Konyaspor 2-2 Adana Demirspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Konyaspor at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Konyaspor vs Adana Demirspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Adana Demirspor make the trip to Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu to face Konyaspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Saturday 9 March 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Konyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Konyaspor's home record at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Adana Demirspor (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Adana Demirspor's away record: 0W 6D 4L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Konyaspor's 1.30 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Adana Demirspor's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Konyaspor, 2 for Adana Demirspor and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2023, ended 0–3 with Adana Demirspor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Konyaspor — key trading statistics (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).
Adana Demirspor — key trading statistics (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 52% versus Adana Demirspor 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 44% | Adana Demirspor 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.35 xG and Adana Demirspor 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.917 / defence 0.909 | Adana Demirspor attack 0.863 / defence 1.011. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.166. Data: 64 Konyaspor games / 64 Adana Demirspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 44% | Draw 33% | Adana Demirspor 23%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 2.27 | Draw 3.03 | Adana Demirspor 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Konyaspor are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Konyaspor if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Konyaspor 40% | Adana Demirspor 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Adana Demirspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Mar 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 44% | Draw 33% | Adana Demirspor 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Konyaspor 1.35 / Adana Demirspor 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.917 / def 0.909 | Adana Demirspor attack 0.863 / def 1.011 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.166 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Adana Demirspor xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs Adana Demirspor kick off?
Konyaspor vs Adana Demirspor kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 9 March 2024 at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Konyaspor 2 - 2 Adana Demirspor.
Where is Konyaspor vs Adana Demirspor being played?
The match is being played at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Adana Demirspor part of?
Konyaspor vs Adana Demirspor is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 44% chance of winning, Adana Demirspor a 23% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Konyaspor and Adana Demirspor will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs Adana Demirspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Adana Demirspor?
Record (5 meetings): Konyaspor 1W | Draws 2 | Adana Demirspor 2W.
What form are Konyaspor and Adana Demirspor in?
Konyaspor (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Adana Demirspor (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Konyaspor's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Adana Demirspor's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. Flip it around — Adana Demirspor's attack (0.86x) against Konyaspor's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 0-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
44%
2.25
33%
3.06
23%
4.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.27
0.91
Adana Demirspor xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
4.38
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
18%
5.61
6%
16.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 9.5 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 12.8 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Adana Demirspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Konyaspor and 0.91 for Adana Demirspor, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Konyaspor's recent record stands at 19W 25D 20L from 64 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-W in the last five.
Adana Demirspor, meanwhile, have gone 28W 20D 16L across 64 games — 1.62 PPG, with L-L-D-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for Konyaspor against 1.62 for Adana Demirspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Konyaspor have managed 10W 11D 10L from 31 games — 1.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Adana Demirspor's away record stands at 7W 13D 11L across 31 trips, a 1.10 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.62 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Adana Demirspor's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Konyaspor are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Adana Demirspor are on 1.81 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Adana Demirspor in 61%.
Last 64 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Current Season
Adana Demirspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and Adana Demirspor in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 19W 25D 20L in their last 64 games (1.28 PPG), while Adana Demirspor have gone 28W 20D 16L in their last 64 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Adana Demirspor away?
Konyaspor's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 1.32 PPG; Adana Demirspor away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Konyaspor or Adana Demirspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Adana Demirspor in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Konyaspor have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Adana Demirspor won 3-0 on 28 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Konyaspor have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Adana Demirspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Konyaspor
3
Draws
2
Adana Demirspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Adana Demirspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Konyaspor have won 3, Adana Demirspor have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Adana Demirspor last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2025, when Konyaspor 3-1 Adana Demirspor.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Adana Demirspor?
Konyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Konyaspor see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 52%, Adana Demirspor 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Konyaspor) and 52% (Adana Demirspor).
On the defensive side: Konyaspor keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Adana Demirspor in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Adana Demirspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play Adana Demirspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Konyaspor's games and 68% of Adana Demirspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Konyaspor vs Adana Demirspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Konyaspor's recent games and 52% of Adana Demirspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Konyaspor and Adana Demirspor tend to score early?
Konyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Adana Demirspor in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Konyaspor and Adana Demirspor share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu, Regular Season - 29, as Konyaspor and Adana Demirspor drew 2-2 in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.35 xG and Adana Demirspor 0.91 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Adana Demirspor outscored their 0.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 0.92 / defence 0.91 against Adana Demirspor attack 0.86 / defence 1.01, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 44% | Draw 33% | Adana Demirspor 23%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 44%, Adana Demirspor 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Konyaspor 1.28 PPG, Adana Demirspor 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Konyaspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.