Konyaspor 2-2 Adana Demirspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Konyaspor at 44% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Konyaspor vs Adana Demirspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Adana Demirspor make the trip to Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu to face Konyaspor in Süper Lig (matchday 29). The match kicks off on Saturday 9 March 2024 at 13:00 UK time.
Current Form
Konyaspor's record over their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Konyaspor's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Adana Demirspor (all games): 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Adana Demirspor's away record over their last 10 away games: 0W 6D 4L (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Konyaspor's 1.30 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Adana Demirspor's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Adana Demirspor edge it 2 wins to 1, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 Oct 2023, ended Konyaspor 0–3 Adana Demirspor — a Adana Demirspor win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Konyaspor — key trading statistics (last 64 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).
Adana Demirspor — key trading statistics (last 64 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 52% versus Adana Demirspor 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 44% | Adana Demirspor 59%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Konyaspor surrender their half-time lead 46% of the time, while Adana Demirspor have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.35 xG and Adana Demirspor 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.917 / defence 0.909 | Adana Demirspor attack 0.863 / defence 1.011. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.166. Data: built from Konyaspor's last 64 games and Adana Demirspor's last 64.
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 44% | Draw 33% | Adana Demirspor 23%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 2.25 | Draw 3.06 | Adana Demirspor 4.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Konyaspor are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Konyaspor if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 53%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Konyaspor 40% (last 10 home games) | Adana Demirspor 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Adana Demirspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 29 | Venue: Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 9 March 2024 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 44% | Draw 33% | Adana Demirspor 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Konyaspor 1.35 / Adana Demirspor 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.917 / def 0.909 | Adana Demirspor attack 0.863 / def 1.011 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.166 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Adana Demirspor xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Konyaspor vs Adana Demirspor FAQs
What time does Konyaspor vs Adana Demirspor kick off?
Konyaspor vs Adana Demirspor kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 9 March 2024 at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Konyaspor 2 - 2 Adana Demirspor.
Where is Konyaspor vs Adana Demirspor being played?
The match is being played at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Adana Demirspor part of?
Konyaspor vs Adana Demirspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 29) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 44% chance of winning, Adana Demirspor a 23% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Konyaspor and Adana Demirspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Konyaspor vs Adana Demirspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Konyaspor's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Adana Demirspor's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. Flip it around — Adana Demirspor's attack (0.86x) against Konyaspor's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from Konyaspor's last 64 games and Adana Demirspor's last 64 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 0-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
44%
2.25
33%
3.06
23%
4.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.27
0.91
Adana Demirspor xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
4.38
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
18%
5.61
6%
16.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 9.5 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 12.8 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Konyaspor vs Adana Demirspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Adana Demirspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Konyaspor and 0.91 for Adana Demirspor, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Konyaspor's recent record stands at 19W 25D 20L from 64 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-W in the last five.
Adana Demirspor, meanwhile, have gone 28W 20D 16L across 64 games — 1.62 PPG, with L-L-D-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for Konyaspor against 1.62 for Adana Demirspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Konyaspor have managed 10W 11D 10L from their last 31 home games — 1.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Adana Demirspor's away record stands at 7W 13D 11L across their last 31 away games, a 1.10 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.62 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Adana Demirspor's recent record.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Konyaspor are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Adana Demirspor are on 1.81 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Adana Demirspor in 61%.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Current Season
Adana Demirspor
Current Season
Konyaspor (Home) vs Adana Demirspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Konyaspor
Current Season
Adana Demirspor
Current Season
❓ Konyaspor vs Adana Demirspor Form FAQs
What form are Konyaspor and Adana Demirspor in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 19W 25D 20L in their last 64 games (1.28 PPG), while Adana Demirspor have gone 28W 20D 16L in their last 64 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Adana Demirspor away?
Konyaspor's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 1.32 PPG; Adana Demirspor away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Konyaspor or Adana Demirspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Adana Demirspor in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent in our data was on 27 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Konyaspor have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Adana Demirspor won Adana Demirspor 3-0 Konyaspor on 28 Oct 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Konyaspor have gone 2W 1D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Adana Demirspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Konyaspor
3
Draws
2
Adana Demirspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Konyaspor vs Adana Demirspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Adana Demirspor?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Konyaspor have won 3, Adana Demirspor have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Adana Demirspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 April 2025: Konyaspor 3-1 Adana Demirspor.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Adana Demirspor?
Konyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Konyaspor see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 46% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 52%, Adana Demirspor 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Konyaspor) and 52% (Adana Demirspor).
On the defensive side: Konyaspor keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Adana Demirspor in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Adana Demirspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Konyaspor vs Adana Demirspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Konyaspor and Adana Demirspor matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Konyaspor's games and 68% of Adana Demirspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Konyaspor and Adana Demirspor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Konyaspor's recent games and 52% of Adana Demirspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Konyaspor and Adana Demirspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 52% of Konyaspor's recent matches and 71% of Adana Demirspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Konyaspor and Adana Demirspor share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu, Regular Season - 29, as Konyaspor and Adana Demirspor drew 2-2 in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.35 xG and Adana Demirspor 0.91 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Adana Demirspor outscored their 0.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 0.92 / defence 0.91 against Adana Demirspor attack 0.86 / defence 1.01, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 44% | Draw 33% | Adana Demirspor 23%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 44%, Adana Demirspor 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Konyaspor 1.28 PPG, Adana Demirspor 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Konyaspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.