Kocaelispor 0-1 Beşiktaş – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beşiktaş at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kocaelispor vs Beşiktaş encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Kocaelispor and Beşiktaş meet at Yıldız Entegre Kocaeli Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 28 February 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Kocaelispor have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Kocaelispor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Kocaelispor have posted 6W 2D 2L at Yıldız Entegre Kocaeli Stadyumu — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Yıldız Entegre Kocaeli Stadyumu. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Kocaelispor are significantly better at Yıldız Entegre Kocaeli Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Beşiktaş (all games): 6W 4D 0L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: D W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beşiktaş's form when playing away from home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Beşiktaş are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Kocaelispor, 1 for Beşiktaş and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2025, ended 1–3 with Beşiktaş winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Kocaelispor — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Beşiktaş — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kocaelispor 39% versus Beşiktaş 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kocaelispor 30% | Beşiktaş 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kocaelispor 1.25 xG and Beşiktaş 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kocaelispor attack 0.876 / defence 0.825 | Beşiktaş attack 1.345 / defence 1.031. League average goals — home 1.387 / away 1.268. Beşiktaş have an above-average attack strength of 1.345 — the away xG of 1.41 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 23 Kocaelispor games / 59 Beşiktaş games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kocaelispor 30% | Draw 33% | Beşiktaş 37%. Fair-value odds: Kocaelispor 3.33 | Draw 3.03 | Beşiktaş 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Beşiktaş are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates are neutral: Kocaelispor 30% | Beşiktaş 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kocaelispor vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Yıldız Entegre Kocaeli Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Feb 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kocaelispor 30% | Draw 33% | Beşiktaş 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 58% | xG Kocaelispor 1.25 / Beşiktaş 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Kocaelispor attack 0.876 / def 0.825 | Beşiktaş attack 1.345 / def 1.031 | league avg home 1.387 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Kocaelispor xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Beşiktaş xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kocaelispor vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Kocaelispor vs Beşiktaş kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 28 February 2026 at Yıldız Entegre Kocaeli Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kocaelispor vs Beşiktaş?
Kocaelispor 0 - 1 Beşiktaş.
Where is Kocaelispor vs Beşiktaş being played?
The match is being played at Yıldız Entegre Kocaeli Stadyumu.
What competition is Kocaelispor vs Beşiktaş part of?
Kocaelispor vs Beşiktaş is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kocaelispor vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Kocaelispor a 30% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 37% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kocaelispor vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Kocaelispor and Beşiktaş will score (BTTS).
Will Kocaelispor vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kocaelispor and Beşiktaş?
Record (1 meetings): Kocaelispor 0W | Draws 0 | Beşiktaş 1W.
What form are Kocaelispor and Beşiktaş in?
Kocaelispor (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Beşiktaş (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Kocaelispor's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Beşiktaş's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. Flip it around — Beşiktaş's attack (1.34x) against Kocaelispor's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 23/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
30%
3.36
33%
3.00
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Kocaelispor xG
Total xG
2.66
1.41
Beşiktaş xG
3.36
30%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
25%
4.08
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
7%
13.70
11%
9.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 9.8 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.3 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.7 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kocaelispor vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Kocaelispor and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Kocaelispor and 1.41 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Kocaelispor vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 23 outings, Kocaelispor have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 8W 6D 9L record — D-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Kocaelispor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Beşiktaş's form line: 12W 7D 4L from 23 games, 1.87 PPG, last five D-W-D-W-W. The sample for Beşiktaş is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Beşiktaş are the form team by 0.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Kocaelispor.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Kocaelispor have posted 1.91 PPG from 11 outings (6W 3D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.30 PPG overall — Kocaelispor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Beşiktaş have gone 5W 4D 2L from 11 away games — 1.73 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Kocaelispor are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 1.91 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beşiktaş in 65%.
Last 23 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kocaelispor
Blended
Beşiktaş
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kocaelispor and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Kocaelispor have gone 8W 6D 9L in their last 23 games (1.30 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 12W 7D 4L in their last 23 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kocaelispor at home or Beşiktaş away?
Kocaelispor's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kocaelispor at home: 1.91 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 1.73 PPG.
Have Kocaelispor or Beşiktaş been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kocaelispor have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Beşiktaş in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Kocaelispor
0
Draws
2
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kocaelispor and Beşiktaş?
From 2 meetings on record, Kocaelispor have won 0, Beşiktaş have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Kocaelispor and Beşiktaş last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Kocaelispor 0-1 Beşiktaş.
Who has won more matches between Kocaelispor and Beşiktaş?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kocaelispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kocaelispor 36%, Beşiktaş 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (Kocaelispor) and 54% (Beşiktaş).
On the defensive side: Kocaelispor keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kocaelispor home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kocaelispor play Beşiktaş?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Kocaelispor's recent matches and 54% of Beşiktaş's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kocaelispor vs Beşiktaş usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Kocaelispor's recent games and 54% of Beşiktaş's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kocaelispor and Beşiktaş tend to score early?
Kocaelispor have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Beşiktaş in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Beşiktaş edge out Kocaelispor 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beşiktaş beat Kocaelispor 0-1 at Yıldız Entegre Kocaeli Stadyumu, Regular Season - 24, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kocaelispor 1.25 xG and Beşiktaş 1.41 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Kocaelispor fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kocaelispor attack 0.88 / defence 0.82 against Beşiktaş attack 1.34 / defence 1.03, drawn from 23/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kocaelispor 30% | Draw 33% | Beşiktaş 37%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kocaelispor 30%, Beşiktaş 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kocaelispor's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Beşiktaş's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Beşiktaş arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Kocaelispor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.