Kayserispor 3-1 Rizespor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kayserispor at 50%, yet in-form Rizespor provide a compelling counter-argument — this Kayserispor vs Rizespor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Kayserispor and Rizespor meet at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 October 2023 at 11:30 UTC.
Current Form
Kayserispor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Kayserispor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Kayserispor have posted 5W 3D 2L at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Kayserispor are significantly better at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Rizespor have collected 1.75 PPG across 8 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 2D 2L. Last five: W W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.12 per game is modest, conceding 1.38 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets in 8 outings (38%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Rizespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rizespor's form when playing away from home: 2W 0D 2L across 4 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Rizespor arrive in superior form — a 0.65 PPG advantage (1.75 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Kayserispor, 1 for Rizespor and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Apr 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Kayserispor — key trading statistics (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Rizespor — key trading statistics (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kayserispor 50% versus Rizespor 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kayserispor 38% | Rizespor 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kayserispor 1.61 xG and Rizespor 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kayserispor attack 0.856 / defence 0.759 | Rizespor attack 0.995 / defence 1.281. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.232. Rizespor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.281 — this is suppressing Kayserispor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Kayserispor's defence rating of 0.759 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 44 Kayserispor games / 8 Rizespor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kayserispor 50% | Draw 31% | Rizespor 18%. Fair-value odds: Kayserispor 2.00 | Draw 3.23 | Rizespor 5.56. Kayserispor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kayserispor are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Rizespor (1.75 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kayserispor if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Kayserispor 20% | Rizespor 75%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kayserispor vs Rizespor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Oct 2023, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kayserispor 50% | Draw 31% | Rizespor 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Kayserispor 1.61 / Rizespor 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Kayserispor attack 0.856 / def 0.759 | Rizespor attack 0.995 / def 1.281 | league avg home 1.472 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Kayserispor (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Kayserispor xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Rizespor xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kayserispor vs Rizespor kick off?
Kayserispor vs Rizespor kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 21 October 2023 at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kayserispor vs Rizespor?
Kayserispor 3 - 1 Rizespor.
Where is Kayserispor vs Rizespor being played?
The match is being played at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu.
What competition is Kayserispor vs Rizespor part of?
Kayserispor vs Rizespor is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kayserispor vs Rizespor?
Our statistical model gives Kayserispor a 50% chance of winning, Rizespor a 18% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Kayserispor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kayserispor vs Rizespor?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Kayserispor and Rizespor will score (BTTS).
Will Kayserispor vs Rizespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Rizespor?
Record (2 meetings): Kayserispor 0W | Draws 1 | Rizespor 1W.
What form are Kayserispor and Rizespor in?
Kayserispor (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Rizespor (all comps): 4W-2D-2L in 8 | 1.75 PPG | GF 1.12 / GA 1.38 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Kayserispor's attack at 0.86x the league average against Rizespor's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rizespor's attack (0.99x) against Kayserispor's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 44/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 2-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kayserispor Win
50%
1.99
31%
3.19
18%
5.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Kayserispor xG
Total xG
2.54
0.93
Rizespor xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
5.41
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
39%
2.53
20%
5.02
Win to Nil
20%
5.05
4%
27.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.7 | 11.8 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.5 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kayserispor vs Rizespor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Kayserispor and Rizespor expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Kayserispor and 0.93 for Rizespor, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Kayserispor vs Rizespor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Kayserispor's recent record stands at 2W 4D 2L from 8 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Kayserispor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rizespor, meanwhile, have gone 4W 2D 2L across 8 games — 1.75 PPG, with W-W-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Rizespor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Rizespor by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kayserispor heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Kayserispor have managed 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.25 PPG overall — Kayserispor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Rizespor's away record stands at 2W 0D 2L across 4 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kayserispor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Kayserispor are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Rizespor are on 1.12 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Defensively: Kayserispor have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Rizespor in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kayserispor
Blended
Rizespor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kayserispor and Rizespor in coming into this match?
Kayserispor have gone 2W 4D 2L in their last 8 games (1.25 PPG), while Rizespor have gone 4W 2D 2L in their last 8 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kayserispor at home or Rizespor away?
Kayserispor's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kayserispor at home: 2.00 PPG; Rizespor away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Kayserispor or Rizespor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kayserispor have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Rizespor in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Kayserispor have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rizespor won 3-0 on 2 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kayserispor have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Rizespor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Kayserispor
1
Draws
3
Rizespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Rizespor?
From 8 meetings on record, Kayserispor have won 4, Rizespor have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kayserispor and Rizespor last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Kayserispor 2-0 Rizespor.
Who has won more matches between Kayserispor and Rizespor?
Kayserispor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kayserispor see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kayserispor 25%, Rizespor 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 25% for Kayserispor and 100% for Rizespor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kayserispor keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches; Kayserispor have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kayserispor home games / Rizespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kayserispor play Rizespor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Kayserispor's recent matches and 75% of Rizespor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kayserispor vs Rizespor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 25% of Kayserispor's matches and 100% of Rizespor's.
Do Kayserispor and Rizespor tend to score early?
Kayserispor have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Rizespor in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kayserispor cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Rizespor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kayserispor beat Rizespor 3-1 at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu, Regular Season - 9, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kayserispor 1.61 xG and Rizespor 0.93 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Kayserispor beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kayserispor attack 0.86 / defence 0.76 against Rizespor attack 0.99 / defence 1.28, drawn from 44/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kayserispor 50% | Draw 31% | Rizespor 18%, with Kayserispor to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kayserispor 38%, Rizespor 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kayserispor's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Rizespor's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Rizespor arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.25. Form was overturned, with Kayserispor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Kayserispor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.