Kayserispor 1-2 Kocaelispor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Kayserispor take on Kocaelispor.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kocaelispor make the trip to Kadir Has Stadium to face Kayserispor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Monday 9 February 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Kayserispor (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Kayserispor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Kadir Has Stadium, Kayserispor have gone 1W 4D 5L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
Kocaelispor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Kocaelispor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Kocaelispor have gone 1W 3D 5L from 9 away fixtures this term (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.67 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Kayserispor against 1.30 for Kocaelispor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Kayserispor 0W, Kocaelispor 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Kayserispor half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Kocaelispor half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kayserispor 55% versus Kocaelispor 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Kayserispor 50% | Kocaelispor 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kayserispor 1.00 xG and Kocaelispor 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kayserispor attack 0.771 / defence 1.303 | Kocaelispor attack 0.662 / defence 1.012. League average goals — home 1.282 / away 1.308. Kayserispor's attack strength of 0.771 is below the league average — the 1.00 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 56 Kayserispor games / 20 Kocaelispor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kayserispor 28% | Draw 38% | Kocaelispor 34%. Fair-value odds: Kayserispor 3.57 | Draw 2.63 | Kocaelispor 2.94. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 28% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.13 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Kayserispor 50% | Kocaelispor 44%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kayserispor vs Kocaelispor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Kadir Has Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 9 Feb 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kayserispor 28% | Draw 38% | Kocaelispor 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 47% | xG Kayserispor 1.00 / Kocaelispor 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Kayserispor attack 0.771 / def 1.303 | Kocaelispor attack 0.662 / def 1.012 | league avg home 1.282 / away 1.308 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Kayserispor xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Kocaelispor xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kayserispor vs Kocaelispor kick off?
Kayserispor vs Kocaelispor kicked off at 14:00 on Monday 9 February 2026 at Kadir Has Stadium.
What was the final score in Kayserispor vs Kocaelispor?
Kayserispor 1 - 2 Kocaelispor.
Where is Kayserispor vs Kocaelispor being played?
The match is being played at Kadir Has Stadium.
What competition is Kayserispor vs Kocaelispor part of?
Kayserispor vs Kocaelispor is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kayserispor vs Kocaelispor?
Our statistical model gives Kayserispor a 28% chance of winning, Kocaelispor a 34% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Kayserispor vs Kocaelispor?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Kayserispor and Kocaelispor will score (BTTS).
Will Kayserispor vs Kocaelispor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Kocaelispor?
Record (1 meetings): Kayserispor 0W | Draws 1 | Kocaelispor 0W.
What form are Kayserispor and Kocaelispor in?
Kayserispor (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Kocaelispor (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Kayserispor's attack at 0.77x the league average against Kocaelispor's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.00 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Kocaelispor's attack (0.66x) against Kayserispor's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 56/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 0-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
28%
3.59
38%
2.65
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Kayserispor xG
Total xG
2.13
1.13
Kocaelispor xG
3.59
28%
Home win
2.65
38%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
9%
11.08
13%
7.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kayserispor vs Kocaelispor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Kayserispor and Kocaelispor expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Kayserispor and 1.13 for Kocaelispor, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Kayserispor vs Kocaelispor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 20 outings, Kayserispor have picked up 0.75 PPG on a 2W 9D 9L record — D-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Kayserispor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kocaelispor's form line: 6W 6D 8L from 20 games, 1.20 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-L. The sample for Kocaelispor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Kocaelispor are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Kayserispor.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Kayserispor have posted 0.67 PPG from 9 outings (1W 3D 5L).
On the road, Kocaelispor have gone 1W 3D 5L from 9 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.20 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kocaelispor's season.
Attack vs Defence
Kayserispor are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.05 conceded per game recently; Kocaelispor are on 0.80 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: Kocaelispor in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kayserispor
Blended
Kocaelispor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kayserispor and Kocaelispor in coming into this match?
Kayserispor have gone 2W 9D 9L in their last 20 games (0.75 PPG), while Kocaelispor have gone 6W 6D 8L in their last 20 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kayserispor at home or Kocaelispor away?
Kayserispor's home record (0.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kayserispor at home: 0.67 PPG; Kocaelispor away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Kayserispor or Kocaelispor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kayserispor have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, Kocaelispor in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 9 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Kayserispor
1
Draws
1
Kocaelispor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Kocaelispor?
From 2 meetings on record, Kayserispor have won 0, Kocaelispor have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kayserispor and Kocaelispor last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2026, when Kayserispor 1-2 Kocaelispor.
Who has won more matches between Kayserispor and Kocaelispor?
Kocaelispor have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Kocaelispor see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kayserispor 44%, Kocaelispor 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Kayserispor) and 33% (Kocaelispor).
On the defensive side: Kayserispor have failed to score in 56% of games; Kocaelispor in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kayserispor home games / Kocaelispor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kayserispor play Kocaelispor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Kayserispor's recent matches and 44% of Kocaelispor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kayserispor vs Kocaelispor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Kayserispor's recent games and 33% of Kocaelispor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kayserispor and Kocaelispor tend to score early?
Kayserispor have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Kocaelispor in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Kocaelispor edge out Kayserispor 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kocaelispor beat Kayserispor 1-2 at Kadir Has Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kayserispor 1.00 xG and Kocaelispor 1.13 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Kocaelispor outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kayserispor attack 0.77 / defence 1.30 against Kocaelispor attack 0.66 / defence 1.01, drawn from 56/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kayserispor 28% | Draw 38% | Kocaelispor 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual Kocaelispor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kayserispor 50%, Kocaelispor 25%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kayserispor's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Kocaelispor's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Kocaelispor arrived the stronger side — 1.20 PPG against 0.75. That form edge translated into the three points. Kocaelispor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.