Kayserispor 1-1 Antalyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Antalyaspor at 39% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu plays host to Kayserispor versus Antalyaspor in Süper Lig (matchday 23). Kick-off: Monday 29 January 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Kayserispor have collected 0.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
At home, Kayserispor have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Kayserispor are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Antalyaspor's record over their last 10 games: 3W 6D 1L (1.50 PPG). Last five: D W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Antalyaspor have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Antalyaspor are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Kayserispor edge it 2 wins to 1, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 2 Sep 2023, ended Kayserispor 1–1 Antalyaspor — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Kayserispor half-time and goal-timing data (last 58 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Antalyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (last 58 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kayserispor 52% versus Antalyaspor 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kayserispor 59% | Antalyaspor 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kayserispor 1.26 xG and Antalyaspor 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kayserispor attack 0.908 / defence 1.074 | Antalyaspor attack 1.084 / defence 0.921. League average goals — home 1.504 / away 1.199. Data: built from Kayserispor's last 58 games and Antalyaspor's last 58.
Result probabilities: Kayserispor 32% | Draw 29% | Antalyaspor 39%. Fair-value odds: Kayserispor 3.11 | Draw 3.41 | Antalyaspor 2.60. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Antalyaspor as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Antalyaspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Kayserispor 50% (last 10 home games) | Antalyaspor 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 23 | Venue: RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 29 January 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kayserispor 32% | Draw 29% | Antalyaspor 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Kayserispor 1.26 / Antalyaspor 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Kayserispor attack 0.908 / def 1.074 | Antalyaspor attack 1.084 / def 0.921 | league avg home 1.504 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: Antalyaspor (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Kayserispor xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Antalyaspor xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor FAQs
What time does Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor kick off?
Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Monday 29 January 2024 at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor?
Kayserispor 1 - 1 Antalyaspor.
Where is Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor being played?
The match is being played at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu.
What competition is Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor part of?
Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 23) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Kayserispor a 32% chance of winning, Antalyaspor a 39% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Antalyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Kayserispor and Antalyaspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Kayserispor's attack rating (0.91) and Antalyaspor's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Antalyaspor's attack (1.08x) against Kayserispor's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from Kayserispor's last 58 games and Antalyaspor's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antalyaspor Win
32%
3.11
29%
3.41
39%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Kayserispor xG
Total xG
2.65
1.40
Antalyaspor xG
3.11
32%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
2.60
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
25%
4.04
28%
3.52
Win to Nil
8%
12.57
11%
9.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 9.8 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.4 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.8 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Kayserispor and Antalyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Kayserispor and 1.40 for Antalyaspor, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Kayserispor come into this having played 58 games, going 23W 10D 25L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Antalyaspor sit at 1.28 PPG from 58 outings (19W 17D 22L), a run that reads D-W-D-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for Kayserispor against 1.28 for Antalyaspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Kayserispor's home form reads 13W 5D 10L across their last 28 home games, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, Antalyaspor have taken 0.93 points per game from their last 28 away games (6W 8D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kayserispor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kayserispor are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Antalyaspor are on 1.28 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kayserispor
Blended
Antalyaspor
Blended
Kayserispor (Home) vs Antalyaspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Kayserispor
Blended
Antalyaspor
Blended
❓ Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor Form FAQs
What form are Kayserispor and Antalyaspor in coming into this match?
Kayserispor have gone 23W 10D 25L in their last 58 games (1.36 PPG), while Antalyaspor have gone 19W 17D 22L in their last 58 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kayserispor at home or Antalyaspor away?
Kayserispor's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kayserispor at home: 1.57 PPG; Antalyaspor away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 22 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Antalyaspor won Antalyaspor 4-0 Kayserispor on 11 Mar 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kayserispor have gone 4W 1D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Antalyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Kayserispor
4
Draws
2
Antalyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Antalyaspor?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Kayserispor have won 4, Antalyaspor have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Kayserispor and Antalyaspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 February 2026: Kayserispor 1-0 Antalyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Kayserispor and Antalyaspor?
Kayserispor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kayserispor 46%, Antalyaspor 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Kayserispor) and 36% (Antalyaspor).
On the defensive side: Kayserispor keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Antalyaspor in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kayserispor home games / Antalyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Kayserispor and Antalyaspor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Kayserispor's recent matches and 46% of Antalyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Kayserispor and Antalyaspor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Kayserispor's recent games and 36% of Antalyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kayserispor and Antalyaspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Kayserispor's recent matches and 71% of Antalyaspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kayserispor and Antalyaspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu, Regular Season - 23, as Kayserispor and Antalyaspor drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kayserispor 1.26 xG and Antalyaspor 1.40 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kayserispor attack 0.91 / defence 1.07 against Antalyaspor attack 1.08 / defence 0.92, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kayserispor 32% | Draw 29% | Antalyaspor 39%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kayserispor 59%, Antalyaspor 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kayserispor's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Antalyaspor's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kayserispor 1.36 PPG, Antalyaspor 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.