Kasımpaşa vs Rizespor – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Kasımpaşa at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kasımpaşa vs Rizespor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Rizespor travel to to take on Kasımpaşa. The game is scheduled for Sunday 25 April 2027, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kasımpaşa stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at , Kasımpaşa have gone 5W 5D 0L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at .
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Rizespor have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Rizespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Rizespor have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Kasımpaşa are in the better shape of the two on current Süper Lig data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Kasımpaşa have won 4, Rizespor 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2026, ended 0–3 with Rizespor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Kasımpaşa in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).
Rizespor in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kasımpaşa 57% versus Rizespor 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 46% | Rizespor 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.47 xG and Rizespor 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 1.052 / defence 0.979 | Rizespor attack 0.963 / defence 0.878. League average goals — home 1.587 / away 1.253. Data: 44 Kasımpaşa games / 44 Rizespor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 44% | Draw 26% | Rizespor 31%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | Rizespor 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kasımpaşa are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kasımpaşa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Kasımpaşa 50% | Rizespor 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Rizespor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Apr 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 44% | Draw 26% | Rizespor 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Kasımpaşa 1.47 / Rizespor 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 1.052 / def 0.979 | Rizespor attack 0.963 / def 0.878 | league avg home 1.587 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Rizespor xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Rizespor kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Rizespor is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 25 April 2027.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Rizespor part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Rizespor is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Rizespor?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 44% chance of winning, Rizespor a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Rizespor?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Rizespor will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Rizespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Rizespor?
Record (8 meetings): Kasımpaşa 4W | Draws 2 | Rizespor 2W.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Rizespor in?
Kasımpaşa (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-W-D. Rizespor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Kasımpaşa's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Rizespor's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. The same calculation in reverse, Rizespor's attack versus Kasımpaşa's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
44%
2.29
26%
3.87
31%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
2.65
1.18
Rizespor xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
3.28
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
23%
4.33
Win to Nil
13%
7.46
7%
14.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 8.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.3 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.0 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Rizespor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Rizespor expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.18 for Rizespor, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Rizespor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kasımpaşa come into this having played 44 games, going 12W 16D 16L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-D. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Rizespor sit at 1.18 PPG from 44 outings (13W 13D 18L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Rizespor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kasımpaşa on 1.18 PPG, Rizespor on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Kasımpaşa's home form reads 6W 10D 6L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Rizespor have taken 1.09 points per game from 22 outings (5W 9D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Rizespor are on 1.30 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Blended
Rizespor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Rizespor in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 12W 16D 16L in their last 44 games (1.18 PPG), while Rizespor have gone 13W 13D 18L in their last 44 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Rizespor away?
Kasımpaşa's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.27 PPG; Rizespor away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Feb 2026, when Rizespor won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kasımpaşa's record when hosting Rizespor specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Kasımpaşa
2
Draws
2
Rizespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Rizespor?
From 8 meetings on record, Kasımpaşa have won 4, Rizespor have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Rizespor last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Kasımpaşa 0-3 Rizespor.
Who has won more matches between Kasımpaşa and Rizespor?
Kasımpaşa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kasımpaşa 50%, Rizespor 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Kasımpaşa) and 59% (Rizespor).
On the defensive side: Kasımpaşa keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Kasımpaşa have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Rizespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Rizespor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Kasımpaşa's games and 64% of Rizespor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Rizespor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Kasımpaşa's recent games and 59% of Rizespor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kasımpaşa and Rizespor tend to score early?
Kasımpaşa have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Rizespor in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.