Kasımpaşa 0-0 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kasımpaşa at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Konyaspor travel to Recep Tayyip Erdogan Stadium to take on Kasımpaşa. The game is scheduled for Friday 18 September 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Kasımpaşa — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D W D D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Kasımpaşa have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Kasımpaşa's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Recep Tayyip Erdogan Stadium this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Konyaspor stand at 3W 0D 7L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Konyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Konyaspor's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Kasımpaşa have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
Konyaspor have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 9 encounters against Kasımpaşa's 0 victories.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.6 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Mar 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Konyaspor have won 4 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Kasımpaşa trading profile (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games).
Konyaspor trading profile (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kasımpaşa 56% versus Konyaspor 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 44% | Konyaspor 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.73 xG and Konyaspor 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 0.930 / defence 1.035 | Konyaspor attack 0.908 / defence 1.211. League average goals — home 1.534 / away 1.225. Konyaspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.211 — this is suppressing Kasımpaşa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 39 Kasımpaşa games / 39 Konyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 51% | Draw 24% | Konyaspor 25%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | Konyaspor 4.00. Kasımpaşa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Konyaspor lead the H2H ledger, but Kasımpaşa carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Kasımpaşa are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kasımpaşa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Kasımpaşa 40% | Konyaspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdogan Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 18 Sep 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 51% | Draw 24% | Konyaspor 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 56% | xG Kasımpaşa 1.73 / Konyaspor 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 0.930 / def 1.035 | Konyaspor attack 0.908 / def 1.211 | league avg home 1.534 / away 1.225 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Konyaspor xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 18 September 2026 at Recep Tayyip Erdogan Stadium.
What was the final score in Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor?
Kasımpaşa 0 - 0 Konyaspor.
Where is Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdogan Stadium.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 51% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Konyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Konyaspor?
Record (9 meetings): Kasımpaşa 0W | Draws 5 | Konyaspor 4W.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Konyaspor in?
Kasımpaşa (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-D-W. Konyaspor (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Kasımpaşa's attack at 0.93x the league average against Konyaspor's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.73 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Konyaspor's attack versus Kasımpaşa's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
51%
1.97
24%
4.21
25%
3.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
2.88
1.15
Konyaspor xG
1.97
51%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
3.94
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
18%
5.63
Win to Nil
16%
6.22
5%
22.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.2 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.15 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kasımpaşa come into this having played 39 games, going 10W 14D 15L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-D-W. It's still early in the season for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Konyaspor sit at 1.10 PPG from 39 outings (11W 10D 18L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Konyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kasımpaşa on 1.13 PPG, Konyaspor on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Kasımpaşa's home form reads 5W 8D 6L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Konyaspor have taken 0.84 points per game from 19 outings (4W 4D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.21 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Konyaspor in 62%.
Last 39 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Early Season
Konyaspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 10W 14D 15L in their last 39 games (1.13 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 11W 10D 18L in their last 39 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Konyaspor away?
Kasımpaşa's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.21 PPG; Konyaspor away: 0.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 18 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Kasımpaşa's record when hosting Konyaspor specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Kasımpaşa
6
Draws
4
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Konyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Kasımpaşa have won 0, Konyaspor have won 4, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Konyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 18 September 2026, when Kasımpaşa 0-0 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Kasımpaşa and Konyaspor?
Konyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kasımpaşa 47%, Konyaspor 74% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 26% (Kasımpaşa) and 63% (Konyaspor).
On the defensive side: Kasımpaşa keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Kasımpaşa have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Konyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Kasımpaşa's games and 74% of Konyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Konyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 26% of Kasımpaşa's recent games and 63% of Konyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kasımpaşa and Konyaspor tend to score early?
Kasımpaşa have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Konyaspor in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Kasımpaşa's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kasımpaşa and Konyaspor finished level at 0-0 at Recep Tayyip Erdogan Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.73 xG and Konyaspor 1.15 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Kasımpaşa fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Konyaspor landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 0.93 / defence 1.03 against Konyaspor attack 0.91 / defence 1.21, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 51% | Draw 24% | Konyaspor 25%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 44%, Konyaspor 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Konyaspor's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kasımpaşa 1.13 PPG, Konyaspor 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Konyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.